OPINION: Initial thoughts on Michigan football vs. MSU

The line has yet to be released, but Michigan will enter an Oct. 29 matchup with Michigan State as a heavy favorite. The Wolverines are 7-0 after a 41-17 pounding of Penn State, MSU 3-4 after squeaking by a bad Wisconsin team in double overtime. 

So bad, in fact, that the Badgers fired their coach and are last in the abysmal Big Ten West. 

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That didn’t stop them from taking to the streets in East Lansing to celebrate the win (okay — that’s an exaggeration. But there was some “we’re back” talk, even though they couldn’t run the ball, picked up several stupid penalties, and were a coin flip from being 2-5).

In short, this isn’t a good football team. And if the team on the other sideline wasn’t wearing green and white, most Michigan fans would have this one chalked up as an easy ‘W,’ especially since U-M is playing so well. 

Still, there will be some consternation from a Michigan fan base scarred by past (crazy) events against the Spartans. Monsoons at night, backup quarterbacks (John O’Korn), the fumbled punt, last year’s 7 reviews that all went MSU’s way, including a game-changer on a fumble for touchdown in which the replay booth officials should have been suspended for the year …

And then there was 2020, when several NFL Wolverines sat out the season, and the ones left missed weeks of practice at a time and didn’t seem to like each other too much. Add in a career game for Rocky Lombardi, and you get an upset in an empty Michigan Stadium. 

They all read like excuses when you lose, of course. But it’s clear the breaks have gone Michigan State’s way in this series, one in which Harbaugh would probably be at least 6-1 under normal circumstances. 

These things, however, have a way of evening out … and sometimes, it doesn’t matter which way the breaks go if you’re just that much better.

That should be the case on Oct. 29. There’s not one area in which MSU should have an advantage, although receiver Jayden Reed is a handful. That, and looking for areas to exploit like last year’s late-to-the-scene defense, are the things the Michigan coaches will be watching for this year. 

In 2015, for example, the offense resembled the Penn State 2016 offense — chuck and hope. Aaron Burbridge was the recipient of several jump ball wins and drew several penalties in that 2015 game. Senior DJ Turner has been good, not great this year — he’ll likely draw that assignment, but the Michigan coaches are likely working and scheming to take the Spartans’ receivers out of the game. 

Michigan State can’t run the ball — Kenneth Walker was the difference between 5-6 and 11-2 last year — and while they’ll have wrinkles, this one’s going to come down to MSU quarterback Payton Thorne. 

He’s been exposed this year as the average quarterback we all believed him to be. At the same time, this game has brought out the best in a lot of bad to average MSU quarterbacks over the years. Lombardi made three or four throws in that game he would/could never make again. And receiver Ricky White had the game of his life running by Michigan’s defensive backs. He might not have been a factor in any other game in his career. 

As it’s been since the Spartans joined the Big Ten, they spend the year pointing to this game. We wouldn’t be surprised if they hired extra analysts for this game alone — and we’d bet money the warlock (Mark Dantonio) is one of them. He’s still welcome there despite robbing them of $4 million and leaving the program worse — well, about the same — as he found it when taking over for John L. Smith. 

None of this will matter if Michigan plays a decent game. The Spartans are 80^th nationally in run defense and allow 4.0 yards per carry. Their pass defense is even worse, 121^st out of 131 teams. U-M dominated Iowa and Penn State on the ground … the Hawkeyes are still 24^th nationally against the run (PSU has plummeted to 56^th, but they’ll ascend again). 

MSU will be closer to full strength, but frankly, they weren’t good at the beginning of the season, either, when they had all hands on deck. 

For the first time in a long time, Harbaugh and his players seemed to circle this one before the season. It isn’t, and will never be, Ohio State, but it’s a rivalry that needs to be taken back. 

It would be disappointing if this were a fourth quarter game. And while a good portion of the fan base has turned on head coach Mel Tucker, calling him their “Brady Hoke,” they’ll throw a parade for him if he beats U-M a third straight time.

Watch for more Michigan — MSU analysis, breakdowns, keys to the game, etc., next week.