Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Illinois

Michigan Wolverines basketball (11-7, 11-7 Big Ten) is tied for second in the Big Ten and ready for a showdown at Illinois (19-10, 10-8) Thursday night. To get you ready for tip off, here’s a breakdown of key players, three things to watch for and our final score prediction.

RELATED

• Illinois writer breaks down matchup with Michigan, predicts final score

• Michigan madness: The Wolverines have been made for March in recent years

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Illinois

Date	Thursday, March 2, 2023
Venue	State Farm Center (Champaign, Ill.)
Time	7:01 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	ESPN / Watch ESPN
On The Call	Kevin Brown (play-by-play) and Seth Greenbert (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Illinois -3.5, over/under 144.5
Kenpom Prediction	Illinois 75, Michigan 71

Projected Michigan starters

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Scored 18, 16 and 20 points in the last three games, respectively … Tallying 8.2 points, 3.4 assists and 3.1 boards per game … Shoots 38.2 percent overall — 40.9 percent on twos and 32.4 percent on threes (24-of-74) … Generates 0.979 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which ranks in the 80th percentile nationally … He’s shooting 47.4 percent on mid-range jumpers (84th percentile).

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 13.5 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game … Shooting 48.2 percent from the field, including 35-of-103 from three (34.7 percent) … Puts up 0.905 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which slots in the 62nd percentile in the country … Shooting jump shots at a 35.1-percent rate but finishes at the rim on a stellar 72 percent of his tries (first in Big Ten).

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — Missed the last two games with an ankle injury and is questionable for Thursday’s game … Posting 14.4 points, 2.1 assists and 2.7 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 69 made triples on 187 tries (36.9 percent) … Has a 53.3 effective field goal percentage on jump shots, which ranks in the 77th percentile in the country … Produces 0.942 point per ball-screen possession (including passes), slotting in the 72nd percentile in the land.

• #42 – Redshirt freshman forward Will Tschetter (6-8, 240) — Started the last four games but has been playing less than Terrance Williams II … Averaging 2.5 points and 1.1 rebound per game … Shoots 53.7 percent from the field and 4-of-16 from long range.

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 67th percentile nationally with 0.966 points per post-up possession (including passes), producing 11.7 points per game in those situations (tied for second in the Big Ten) … Averaging 17.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while shooting 55.2 percent from the field and 19-of-47 from three-point range (40.4 percent).

Key bench contributors

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Came off the bench the last two games after missing the previous two with a knee bruise … Recording 6.6 points and 6.3 rebounds per clash while connecting on 39.2 percent of his overall shots and 25.7 percent of his three-pointers (17-of-66) … Is used as a spot-up shooter and offensive rebounder on the offensive end, but has struggled with his shot, going 9-of-30 on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (30 percent).

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — Started the last two games with Jett Howard out … The Duke transfer is averaging 5.4 points and 2.3 rebounds per game while shooting 37-of-94 from long range (39.4 percent) … He’s 14-of-39 on two-point attempts (35.9 percent) for the season … 82.1 percent of his shots are jumpers, on which he has a 51.8 effective field goal percentage, and he’s shooting 50 percent at the rim.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 3.6 points and 3.7 rebounds in 12 minutes per night … Connects on 57.3 percent of his field goals (all two-pointers) … Is just 19-of-51 from the free throw line (37.3 percent) … Commits 5.9 fouls per 40 minutes … Is an athletic, switchable defender who blocks 8.2 percent of opponents’ shots when he’s on the floor.

Projected Illinois starters

• #1 – Freshman guard Sencire Harris (6-4, 160) — May get the starting nod since point guard Jayden Epps could miss the game with a concussion … Registering 3.6 points and 2 rebounds per clash, while connecting on 42.7 percent of his overall looks and 11 of his 37 three-point tries (29.7 percent) … Plays both guard spots off the bench.

• #0 – Senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (6-6, 225) — The Texas Tech import and former Michigan transfer target has the ninth-highest usage rate in the Big Ten during league play (27.2), averaging 17.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists per contest … Shooting 44.1 percent overall and 33.3 percent on threes (46-of-138) … Runs the most pick-and-roll actions on the team and produces 0.911 points per possession (including passes), which slots in the 64th percentile in the country … 51.7 percent of his shots are jumpers and 40.6 percent come at the rim … Is great at leading the break and scores 4.4 transition points per game.

• #24 – Fifth-year senior guard/forward Matthew Mayer (6-9, 225) — The Baylor transfer is posting 12.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.2 assists per contest, while shooting 42.4 percent overall and 36 percent from long range (62-of-172) … His 2.1 made threes per game rank seventh in the Big Ten … He’s mostly used as a spot-up shooter, but he can also run ball screens and come around off-ball screens and dribble handoffs.

• #33 – Junior forward Coleman Hawkins (6-10, 225) — Averaging 9.9 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists per outing, while starting at the ‘4’ but also playing backup ‘5’ … Connecting on 44.2 percent of his overall shots and 28.1 percent of his threes (34-of-121) … A very good offensive rebounder, who spots up and can also be the roll man on ball screens.

• #42 – Redshirt sophomore forward Dain Dainja (6-9, 270) — The Baylor transfer plays just 20.7 minutes per game and averages 9.7 points and 5.7 rebounds … Shooting 65 percent from the field (all twos) … Generates 1.016 points per play out of the post (including passes), which ranks in the 77th percentile nationally, and also scores 1.9 points per game on cuts and 1 point on ball screen rolls.

Key bench contributors

• #15 – Sophomore guard RJ Melendez (6-7, 205) — Posting 5.7 points and 3.4 boards per contest, while shooting 36.9 percent from the field and 24.7 percent on threes (21-of-85) … A spot-up shooter who drives right and can get to the rim.

• #20 – Freshman guard/forward Ty Rodgers (6-6, 200) — The former Michigan target and Saginaw, Mich., native is putting up 2.9 points, 4 rebounds and 1 assist in 16.6 minutes per game … A plus defender who’s shooting 51.4 percent from the field, with all but 1 of his attempts coming from inside the arc … 27 of his points have come on cuts and 17 on put-backs.

Questionable

• #3 – Freshman guard Jayden Epps (6-2, 190) — Went down with a concussion and was hospitalized this week, so his status is uncertain … Averaging 10 points, 1.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game, while connecting on 41.8 percent of his overall shots and 30 percent of his three-point tries (36-of-120) … Started the last 10 games … Has the fifth-highest usage rate among Illinois’ starters (19.8) … Generates 0.799 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which ranks in the 35th percentile nationally, while running the second-most on the team … Goes right on 65.4 percent of his drives and finishes on 60.9 percent of his layups.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. Matchups

There are some matchups that could pose problems for Michigan, particularly with Shannon and Mayer. Both are big for their positions, and the Wolverines will have to make some tough decisions on who to start (there are some options between Jett Howard/Baker and Tschetter/Williams) and who they guard.

Shannon uses high pick-and-rolls and has the strength and explosion to get down hill. Mayer comes around screens and can get hot shooting in a hurry.

Beyond that, Dickinson should be able to check Dainja in the post without much help. Illinois may have to double Dickinson at times, and it’ll be challenging for him to get his passes out off because of their length and active hands.

Illinois will go small with Hawkins at the ‘5,’ meaning Dickinson will be stretched out to the perimeter. He’s 4-of-16 on pick-and-pop threes this season, per Synergy, and will likely try to get those looks on Michigan’s big man.

2. Illinois’ athleticism on defense

The Illini rank 25th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, largely because they’re good at blocking shots (ninth nationally with 14.1-percent block rate), allow opponents to shoot just 44.5 percent on twos (10th in the country) and force turnovers on 19 percent of possessions.

It’s a disruptive unit. Illinois has the length and athleticism to switch frequently on defense, and Michigan will have to work to exploit that. The Illini limit three-point attempts and allow a low number of assists, meaning Michigan will have to be good in some one-on-one situations.

It’s worth noting the Illinois defense has been hit or miss this season. Yes, most teams have struggled to score inside the arc, but others have had enough success to win. Illinois is 2-8 when the opponent shoots better than 48.3 percent on twos.

3. Inconsistent Illini offense

Even more hit or miss has been the Illinois offense. The Illini don’t quite have the identity they did over the last few years, with a dominant big in Kofi Cockburn and aggressive, downhill attacking guards surrounded by shooters.

This season, they play up-tempo, averaging 14.2 transition points per game, grab 30.1 percent of their own missed shots during conference play and get to the free throw line a lot. Shooting has been a big struggle, though.

There are a lot of shot-takers for Illinois, as Michigan associate head coach Phil Martelli would call them, but not enough shot-makers. Illinois has five players that have attempted 85 or more three-pointers, including four with over 100 tries. As a team, the Illini attempt 42.9 percent of their shots from beyond the arc despite shooting a league-worst 29 percent during the conference season. They shoot 29.2 percent on catch-and-shoot jump shots, the worst mark in the Big Ten.

There are only two players on the roster shooting better than 30 percent from deep — Shannon (33.3) and Mayer (36). Neither mark is spectacular, and the former has cooled off to 29.6 percent in conference play. Those are two individual players to be wary of, plus Dainja can score on the block, but the whole isn’t greater than the some of its parts.

The Illini offense has flatlined in losses to Indiana (twice), Virginia, Penn State, Ohio State and Northwestern, scoring less than a point per play in each game.

Prediction

This is Michigan’s best chance for a win this week, with a trip to Indiana coming Sunday. The Illini have been solid at home despite being an up-and-down team that doesn’t look all that impressive, though. Right now, they’re a projected No. 8 seed per Bracket Matrix, a bit disappointing considering where things were at the end of January. At that point, they were 16-6.

The Wolverines will be desperate but have to play one of their better games — an effort like last Thursday night at Rutgers — to get it done in front of a raucous environment. There’s bad blood from the Illinois side, after the Illini whined about Michigan winning the Big Ten outright in 2021 after having to cancel games due to illness.

Prediction: Illinois 73, Michigan 68