Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Kentucky in London

Michigan Wolverines basketball is set to take on Kentucky Sunday in London as part of the Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase.

Michigan fell just short at home against Virginia, falling 70-68 this week, its second loss of the season while Kentucky has also had an up-and-down start to the year. The Wildcats are 5-2 with losses to Michigan State and Gonzaga.

Here is everything you need to know before tip-off.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Kentucky

Date	Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022
Venue	O2 Arena (London, England)
Time	1:03 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	ESPN / Watch ESPN app
On The Call	Karl Ravech (play-by-play and Jay Bilas (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Kentucky -8.5, o/u 142.5
Kenpom Prediction	Kentucky 76, Michigan 67

Michigan projected starters

• #3 – Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn (6-2, 190) — The 2022 first-team All-Ivy League standout is putting up 7.4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game while shooting 31.9 percent from the field and 5-of-25 from long range (20 percent) … Producing 0.843 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which ranks in the 48th percentile nationally.

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 9.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game … Shooting 38.1 percent from the field, including just 5-of-27 from three (18.5 percent).

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — The head coach’s son is posting 15.1 points, 2.4 assists and 2.1 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 21 made triples on 48 tries (43.8 percent) … Has a 56.7 effective field goal percentage on spot-up shots.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Recording 8.4 points and 6.9 rebounds per clash while connecting on 38.5 percent of his overall shots and 29.6 percent of his three-pointers.

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 75th percentile nationally with 1.067 points per post-up possession … Averaging 19.1 points and 9.1 rebounds per game while shooting a whopping 58.7 percent from the field and 2-of-7 from three-point range.

Key bench contributors

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Averaging 14.9 minutes per game and tallying 4 points, 2.3 assists and 2.3 boards … Shoots 33.3 percent overall — 38.5 percent on twos and 20 percent (2-of-10) on threes.

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 5 points and 2.4 rebounds per game while shooting 9-of-20 from long range … He’s 1-of-5 on two-point attempts.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 2.6 points and 2.3 rebounds in 9.7 minutes per night … Connects on 58.3 percent of his field goals and is just 4-of-12 from the free throw line.

Kentucky projected starters

• #2 – Senior guard Sahvir Wheeler (5-9, 180) — Averaging 8.5 points and 7.3 assists per game, while shooting 39.5 percent from the field and 33.3 percent on three-pointers … Ranks in the 82nd percentile nationally in pick-and-roll efficiency, producing 1.1 points per play (including passes).

• #22 – Freshman guard Cason Wallace (6-4, 193) — Putting up 10.6 points, 4.6 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game, while connecting on 51.8 percent of his looks from the field, including a 10-of-24 clip from distance (41.7 percent) … Spot-up shooter and pick-and-roll ball handler, but isn’t as efficient when used as the latter, producing only 0.7 pointer per play.

• #12 – Senior guard Antonio Reeves (6-5, 205) — The Illinois State transfer is leading Kentucky with 14.9 points per game, while adding 2.7 boards per outing … Stellar in transition and as a spot-up shooter … Doesn’t run many ball screens … Shooting 46.9 percent from beyond the arc (23-of-49) and 43.8 percent overall (35-of-81).

• #0 – Senior forward Jacob Toppin (6-9, 205) — The Rhode Island transfer has been with Kentucky the last three seasons … Averaging 12.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per contest, while shooting 41.5 percent overall and just 3-of-16 from three-point range … Spots up, runs in transition and scores off cuts in the half court.

• #34 – Senior forward Oscar Tshiebwe (6-9, 260) — Registering 14.4 points and 13.4 rebounds per game, while shooting 56.4 percent from the field (all two-pointers) … Ranks 69th nationally with a 7.4 block rate, first with a 23.5 offensive rebounding percentage and third with a 32.0 defensive rebounding percentage … Just average as a post-up big, generating 0.8 points per play (33rd percentile nationally), but has scored 16 points on put-backs and 16 points on cuts this season.

Key bench contributors

• #1 – Redshirt senior guard CJ Fredrick (6-3, 185) — The Iowa transfer missed last season with an injury but is a key contributor for Kentucky this season … Posting 10.3 points and 2 assists per outing, while shooting 35.9 percent from long range (14-of-39) … Connecting on 42.6 percent of his overall shots … 45 of his 54 shot attempts have been jumpers.

• #55 – Junior forward Lance Ware (6-9, 235) — Backs up Tshiebwe, averaging 4.3 points and 2.3 rebounds in 14 minutes per game … Shooting a whopping 73.3 percent on two-pointers (11-of-15).

• #24 – Freshman guard Chris Livingston (6-6, 220) — Averaging 5.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 44 percent from the field … Hit 3 of his 10 three-point attempts.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. Battle of the bigs

Elite big men returning to school and playing as upperclassmen has become a trend in college basketball, from Dickinson to Tshiebwe to North Carolina’s Armando Bacot to Gonzaga’s Drew Timme and others. We’ll see two of the best go at it Saturday.

The two have different styles and are considered ‘beasts’ but in different ways. Dickinson is a technician with his skillful post moves, while Tshiebwe uses brute force as a rebounder, interior scorer and elite defender.

Dickinson will have his work cut out for him against Tshiebwe, who’s missed some time with an injury this season. The contrast between their styles will be fun to watch.

We also wonder how much help Kentucky will bring on Dickinson, given that Tshiebwe may be able to hold his own. That could impact how Michigan’s perimeter players are defender, giving them less space to spot-up shoot. Kentucky has brought hard double teams on only 6 of 42 post-up possessions this season.

2. Kentucky defense

Kentucky is an elite defensive team, ranking fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wildcats are allowing opponents to shoot a 42.8 effective field goal percentage (23rd nationally), 29.6 percent on threes (72nd) and 41.9 percent on twos (19th).

Michigan plays inside-out, so depending on how effective Dickinson is on Tshiebwe, that “inside” aspect of the game could be slowed down. The Wildcats block 17 percent of their opponents’ shots, the eighth-best mark in the country.

The Wildcats will also put a lot of pressure on the ball out to half court, something Michigan’s guards, Llewellyn, especially, haven’t handled all too well this year. They have a 12.2 percent steal rate, which slots 50th in the country, using their athleticism to force a lot of turnovers.

3. Up-and-down Kentucky offense

Kentucky has also been very efficient on offense, slotting 16th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Wildcats play fast, averaging 15.6 seconds per offensive possession, and score 23.7 transition points per game.

The Wildcats are great at getting the ball to their spot-up shooters, and they cash three-pointers at a 37.4-percent clip. They connect on a solid 51.5 percent of their shots from inside the arc and hardly get any looks blocked. Kentucky ranks 16th nationally with assists on 63.2 percent of their shots.

With that said, Kentucky’s offense has been a bit underwhelming this season, when put into the context of their preseason expectations. With a lot of production returning, they were projected to be around where they were a year ago, fifth in offensive efficiency.

The Wildcats have been held under 1 point per possession twice — in both of their losses, 86-77 to Michigan State and 88-72 to Gonzaga. They went cold from both inside the arc and on three-point attempts in those games, but were especially bad in the latter, shooting a combined 13-of-50 from three-point range in the losses. Their biggest offensive outputs have come against cupcake opponents (1.3 against North Florida, 1.3 versus Howard).

Prediction

Kentucky has been good, not great, this season, losing its two toughest games and taking care of business against the light competition. Michigan has struggled in both kind of contests, for the most part, which is why the Wildcats are a pretty significant favorite.

Michigan will be overmatched in the athleticism department, and a lot of how much the Wolverines compete will come down to how much Dickinson can give on the offensive end.

The Wildcats are a terrific offensive rebounding team, grabbing 34.8 percent of their own missed shots, and despite some signs in the last game against Virginia, Michigan has struggled on the defensive glass.

There haven’t been many great matchups for the Maize and Blue this season, but this feels like a particularly difficult one.

Prediction: Kentucky 82, Michigan 69