Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Long Beach State

Michigan Wolverines basketball has one more game before heading to the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis, with the Maize and Blue set to host 1-2 Long Beach State Friday evening.

Long Beach State lost to Portland, 78-73, on opening night before bouncing back with a 77-73 victory over DePaul. It played San Diego State and fell by 12, 88-76, Monday.

The 49ers were picked to finish second in the Big West, a true contender to earn the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since becoming a No. 12 seed in 2012.

Fans attending the game are asked to help support Michigan’s Mott Children’s Hospital by donating an unwrapped gift for a patient. Details can be found on the Mott website.

To get you ready for tip off, here’s a breakdown of key players, what to watch for and our final score prediction.

RELATED
• John Beilein: Michigan ‘playing with something really special,’ Dug McDaniel in the mold of former U-M point guards
• Mailbag: What happens if Tony Petitti has to hand Jim Harbaugh a title trophy?

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Long Beach State

Date	Friday, Nov. 17, 2023
Venue	Crisler Center
Time	7:01 p.m.
TV / Stream	Big Ten Plus
On The Call	Amer Bektas (play-by-play, Jesse Heller (color), Yasmeen Shah (sideline)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -15.5, over/under 160.5
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 88, Long Beach State 72 (92-percent chance of U-M victory)

Projected Michigan starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn has transitioned into “light contact drills” during practice but hasn’t been fully cleared yet, per assistant Saddi Washington Nov. 16. On Nov. 3, U-M announced that junior guard Jace Howard would miss 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his right knee and tibia.

Stat to know: McDaniel is generating 1.2 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which ranks in the 89th percentile nationally.

Trend to watch: The Wolverines have scored 85-plus points in three straight games for the first time since a four-game stretch early in the 2012-13 season — wins over Eastern Michigan (93-54), Central Michigan (88-73), Northwestern (94-66) and Iowa (95-67).

Projected Long Beach State starters

• #2 – Junior guard Isa Silva (6-4, 190) — The Stanford transfer is posting 3.3 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists per outing, while shooting 33.3 percent overall and 0-of-2 from long range. He generated 0.9 points per play on ball screens (including passes), last season, in the 73rd percentile nationally.

• #0 – Senior guard Marcus Tsohonis (6-3, 190) — Averaging a team-high 18.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1 assist per game this season. The honorable mention All-Big West selection put up 14.1 points, 3.4 boards and 2 assists per outing a year ago. He’s 5-for-12 on threes this season but connected on only 26.4 percent of his tries last year. He’s seen 21 of his 56 points come in transition.

• #12 – Junior guard Jadon Jones (6-5, 185) — Posting 12.7 points per game on 37 percent shooting from the field (8-of-22 from long range). He adds 3 rebounds and 1.7 assists per clash. He’s mostly a spot-up shooter with 84.6 percent of his field goal attempts being jumpers.

• #25 – Junior forward Aboubacar Traore (6-5, 195) — Stands 15th in program history with 549 career rebounds and averaged 10.1 points and 8.8 boards per game last season, earning an All-Big West honorable mention. He’s averaging 14 points, 8 rebounds and 4.7 assists per tilt. He produces 1.2 points per possession on post-ups, including passes. He’s also seen 15 of his 42 points come in transition.

• #23 – Junior forward Lassina Traore (6-10, 230) — Averaging 8.7 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, shooting 40.7 percent from the field (all twos). Most of his plays are post-ups, but he hasn’t been efficient this season, with just 0.5 points per possession (including passes).

Key bench contributors
• #4 – Senior guard Messiah Thompson (5-8, 170) — Recording 5.3 points and 1.7 assists per game, while shooting 33.3 percent overall and 16.7 percent from three.

• #10 – Sophomore guard AJ George (6-6, 190) — Averaged 8.6 points and 3.1 rebounds per game last season. Putting up 8.7 points per contest this year, shooting 42.9 percent from the field with no three-point attempts.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Long Beach State

1. Another fast-paced game

Long Beach State ranks eighth in the country in tempo and 23rd with a 14.8-second average possession length. This will be a fast-paced game, and that could play into Michigan’s hands. The Wolverines have run quite a bit this season, averaging 71.8-possession contests, led by McDaniel’s quickness and speed.

Long Beach State mostly plays half-court defense, though it has pressed on just over seven percent of defensive possessions. But it looks to get out and run whenever possible, averaging 19.7 transition points per contest.

Michigan has had some issues in transition defense, ranking in the 46th percentile nationally by allowing 0.97 points per play. There have been times the Wolverines haven’t gotten back in time, and there have also been miscommunications.

2. Get on the boards
Long Beach State will crash the boards like crazy, having ranked 19th in the country with a 34.6-percent offensive rebounding rate last season. This year, the 49ers have corralled 29.6 percent of their own misses, down a bit but still capable. A year ago, they averaged 8.6 points via put-backs per contest. so even though they shot 30.2 percent on twos and 49.5 percent from inside the arc, they’re usually able to get some easy buckets in transition and from second-chance opportunities.

Michigan got beat up on the boards in a few different spurts against St. John’s, which grabbed a whopping 51.9 percent of its own missed shots. The Wolverines said cleaning that up has been an emphasis coming into this one.

3. Dug McDaniel’s rise and the offense’s success
Coming into the year, most believed Michigan would have to win with defense. But behind playing faster and receiving much-improved point guard play from McDaniel, the Maize and Blue have won with great offense and very good defense, the former being better than the latter. Michigan put up 1.2 points per possession five times last season. It’s already done so in all three outings this year.

McDaniel is so much more in control of the game it’s not even funny. It’s damn impressive, actually. He’s at his best in transition or semi-transition, and he’s gotten better at running ball screens. So far, he’s played at an elite level, but we’re not ready to call him ‘elite.’ But with every performance comes another data point. If he is one of the Big Ten’s best guards, this Wolverines team has a high ceiling.

Prediction

Michigan has struggled with transition defense and defensive rebounding. Long Beach State will test the Wolverines in both of those areas. But that almost makes it easier for U-M to lock in and make the proper corrections, meaning this game may have come at the perfect time, before Michigan heads to the Bahamas for three challenging contests.

The Maize and Blue have also had some issues in ball-screen defense, but Long Beach State ranks in the sixth percentile in the country in ball-screen volume. This feels like a good matchup for U-M.

Prediction: Michigan 85, Long Beach State 67