Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Nebraska

Michigan Wolverines basketball (8-15, 3-9 Big Ten) finally picked up its eighth win of the season Wednesday against Wisconsin and is now headed on the road to take on Nebraska (16-8, 6-7 Big Ten). The Cornhuskers, meanwhile, have lost two straight games and are looking to get back on track.

Here’s everything you need to get ready for tip-off, including our final score prediction.

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Nebraska

Date	Saturday, Feb. 10, 2024
Venue	Pinnacle Bank Arena
Time	6:31 p.m. ET (5:31 p.m. local time)
TV / Stream	Big Ten Network
On The Call	Kevin Kugler (play-by-play) and Bruce Weber (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Nebraska -7.5, over/under 145.5
Kenpom Prediction	Nebraska 80, Michigan 73 (25-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel will miss the game as part of his road game suspension.

Nebraska projected starters

• #30 – Senior guard Keisei Tominaga (6-2, 179) — Putting up 13.8 points and 2 rebound per clash, while connecting on 56.2 percent of his twos and 37 percent of his 127 triple tries. His 2.1 made threes per game rank sixth in the Big Ten. Michigan will have to stay with him on dribble handoffs, with the Japan native scoring 1.161 points per possession in those situations. He also produces 1.051 points per play on ball screens (including passes). Thirty three of his made jumper have come off the dribble this season, so he’s not just a shooter the Wolverines will have to cling to off the ball. There will have to be a hand in his face at all times.

• #4 – Junior forward Juwan Gary (6-6, 221) — Recording 11.7 points and 5.8 rebounds per contest. He’s shooting 63.1 percent on twos (up to 67.9 percent during league play, third in the Big Ten) and 32 percent on 50 three-point attempts. He also possesses a 3.5-percent block rate during the conference season that checks in 14th in the Big Ten. For a wing, he doesn’t produce much offense on the perimeter, but he has made 27 field goals off of cuts and 17 in transition, and he’s making a whopping 70 percent of his shots at the rim.

• #3 – Junior guard Brice Williams (6-7, 213) — The Charlotte transfer is recording 13 points, 2.6 assists and 5.7 boards per outing, while shooting 56.7 percent on twos and 38.7 percent on 93 threes. He also makes 85.4 percent of his free throws. He mostly spots up and takes jump shots.

• #53 – Senior forward Josiah Allick (6-8, 231) — The New Mexico and Missour-Kansas City transfer is putting up 6.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game, while shooting 52.1 percent on twos and 6-of-17 percent on threes. He’s registering 0.941 points per possession on post-ups (including passes).

• #51 – Junior forward Rienk Mast (6-10, 248) — The Bradley transfer has been one of the biggest revelations of the Big Ten season. He’s averaging 13.7 points, 8.1 rebounds and 3 assists per game, often playing out of the high post and distributing. His 19.8-percent assist rate is the second-highest in the Big Ten among players over 6-foot-5. He’s making 49.4 percent of his twos and shooting 36 percent on 89 three-point attempts. He’s generating 1.050 points per post-up possession (including passes).

Key bench contributors
• #10 – Sophomore guard Jamarques Lawrence (6-3, 183) — Came off the bench last game after previously starting. He’s averaging 6 points, 2.6 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game, while shooting 46.3 percent on twos and 27.9 percent on 68 three-point attempts. He generates 0.847 points per possession on ball screens (including passes) and isn’t much of a threat as a scorer.

• #1 – Sophomore guard Sam Hoiberg (6-0, 183) — The head coach’s son adds energy off the bench, playing 19 minutes per game as a backup point guard. He averages 3.9 points and 1.7 assists per game. He pushes the ball in transition but is mostly a spot-up threat in the half court.

• #0 – Junior guard C.J. Wilcher (6-5, 214) — Putting up 9.2 points in 18 minutes per game, shooting 57.7 percent on twos and 45.8 percnet on 96 threes. His 51.7-percent three-point shooting clip during conference play leads the Big Ten. He uses dribble hand-offs (1.289 points per play), spot ups (1.162) and off-ball screens (1.429).

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Nebraska

1. Home, sweet home
Every college basketball team plays better at home, but Nebraska has had a really strong home-court advantage this season. The Cornhuskers are 14-1 at Pinnacle Bank Arena, where they’ve beaten Michigan State (77-70), Purdue (88-72), Northwestern (75-69), Wisconsin (80-72 in overtime) and others. That’s impressive.

Three-point shooting has led to a lot of Nebraska’s big wins, including a 14-for-23 effort (60.9 percent!) in the win over Purdue. They also made 14 against Ohio State, 10 in a win over MSU and 12 in a victory over Indiana. They’ve drained double-digit triples in 13 different games.

At Pinnacle Bank Arena, opponents are shooting just 44.6 percent on twos and 32.1 percent on threes.

2. Nebraska offense
As mentioned, Nebraska relies heavily on threes. The Cornhuskers don’t have a traditional point guard, which has made it tougher to create those opportunities, but the gravitational pull that comes with Tominaga is pretty significant. He cannot be left alone in any circumstance, and he can put the ball on the deck as well. Mast’s playmaking ability from the high post, too, has helped mask the lack of a point guard.

Nebraska ranks 41st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, shooting 36.4 percent on threes (51st) and 51.9 percent on twos (119th). The Cornhuskers don’t get much on the offensive glass (27.8 percent; 227th).

3. Nebraska defense, and an advantage Michigan should have
Nebraska ranks 79th in defensive efficiency, even though its effective field goal percentage defense (47.5) ranks 52nd in the country. It’s because the Cornhuskers don’t force turnovers (on just 16.4 percent of possessions), and they allow a lot of offensive rebounds, with opponents grabbing 30.4 percent of their own misses (232nd).

That’s where Michigan — which hauls in 31.5 percent of its own missed field goal attempts — can take advantage. The Wolverines should aggressively crash the glass to create some easy opportunities, especially since their offense won’t be as dynamic as it can be with McDaniel out of the lineup on the road.

To win, Michigan will also likely have to hit some threes. The Wolverines nail 36.9 percent of their triples, good for 39th in the country, and Nebraska gives up a lot of three-point attempts (42.3 percent of opponents’ shots). Nebraska is 4-6 when opponents shoot 35 percent or better from long range.

Prediction

Nebraska has played too well at home, and Michigan is a different team without McDaniel, who hasn’t had a great season but can at least make some magic happen offensively.

Prediction: Nebraska 84, Michigan 75