Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. No. 14 Illinois

Michigan Wolverines basketball will host No. 14 Illinois Thursday night at Crisler Center for the program’s first-ever ‘white-out’ game.

The Maize and Blue got on the right side of the win column Monday afternoon with a 73-65 win over Ohio State in Ann Arbor. Illinois, meanwhile, just lost a home tilt to Maryland (76-67) as significant favorites and has dropped two of its last three (though the other loss was to No. 2 Purdue at Mackey Arena).

Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off, including our final score prediction.

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Game information: Michigan vs. Illinois

Date	Thursday, Jan. 18, 2024
Venue	Crisler Center
Time	8:40 p.m. ET (possible five-minute slide)
TV / Stream	Fox Sports 1
On The Call	Kevin Kugler (play-by-play) and Stephen Bardo (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Illinois -2.5, over/under 153.5
Kenpom Prediction	Illinois 80, Michigan 75 (33-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate forward Tray Jackson has missed the last two games with a broken nose and concussion. The small fracture in his nose may require surgery. Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn is being monitored after coming back from knee surgery, having played 33 minutes against Maryland but only one versus Ohio State.

Illinois projected starters

• #3 – Graduate guard Marcus Domask (6-6) — The Southern Illinois transfer has carried a huge load for Illinois, especially as of late, playing 93 percent of the team’s minutes during league play, ranking first in the conference. He’s putting up 14.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists per outing. He’s shooting 56.3 percent on twos, 23.5 percent on 68 threes and 90.3 percent on free throws while drawing 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes during the Big Ten season. He’s generating 0.981 points per play on ball screens (including passes) and is in the 88th percentile nationally in isolation volume, posting 1.147 points per possession in those situations.

• #20 – Sophomore guard/forward Ty Rodgers (6-6) — The Saginaw, Mich., native plays anywhere from the ‘1’ to the ‘3,’ but he’s not a shooter, with no three-point attempts on the season. He’s physical and creates off the bounce, averaging 2.4 assists to go along with his 6.2 points per game, and has a stellar 8.8 offensive rebounding percentage. He uses ball screens but is just average with them (0.844 points per play), cuts (1.33) and posts up (0.563).

• #10 – Junior guard/forward Luke Goode (6-7) — Entered the starting lineup after Terrence Shannon Jr. was suspended from all team activities and has opened the last five clashes, playing over 30 minutes in four of the five. He’s registering 7.7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, while connecting on 44.4 percent of his 18 two-point attempts and 40.5 percent of his 79 triple tries. He’s mostly a spot-up shooter with 87.6 percent of his field goal attempts being jumpers.

• #13 – Graduate guard/forward Quincy Guerrier (6-8) — The Oregon transfer originally from Quebec is notching 11.1 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. He’s shooting 57.1 percent on twos and 29.6 percent on 54 three-pointers. He plays off the ball and can slash to the rim, where 53.3 percent of his field goal attempts are taken and he converts on 60.3 percent of them.

• #33 – Senior forward Coleman Hawkins (6-10) — Averaging 10.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game, while shooting 46.9 percent on twos and 35.5 percent on 62 threes. He gets to the free throw line a lot, where he’s shooting 75.8 percent, has a 3.9-percent block rate and is strong on the defensive glass. He’s a true pick-and-pop big who can spot up and either shoot or drive. However, he hardly ever posts up (just 6.6 percent of his possessions).

Key bench contributors
• #42 – Redshirt junior forward/center Dain Dainja (6-9) — He took over as a starter before the midway point last season, but has mostly come off the bench this year and is only averaging 10.9 minutes per game. He’s putting up 6.7 points and 3.9 rebounds, shooting 69 percent from the field (all twos). He’s good in post-up situations (0.976 points per possession, including passes) and has seen 21 of his 107 points come on put-backs.

• #4 – Graduate guard Justin Harmon (6-4) — The Utah Valley transfer is averaging 6.2 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.1 assists in 18.3 minutes per game off the bench. He’s shooting just 39.1 percent from inside the arc but 42.1 percent from beyond it (38 attempts). He plays off the ball as a spot-up man.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Illinois

1. Life without Terrence Shannon Jr.
Illinois ranked 15th in the country in T-Rank’s overall efficiency ratings until Dec. 28, when Shannon was suspended after being charged with rape. Since then, the Illini have dipped only slightly to 21st, but the defense has slid quite a bit to a lowly 108th nationally (from 19th!). Illinois has allowed over 1 point per possession in each of its last three games — an 83-78 loss to Purdue, a 71-68 win over Michigan State and a 76-67 clunker of a home loss to Maryland.

2. Illinois on offense
Illinois plays a unique brand of basketball, with much of its rotation being ‘position-less,’ a buzzword that Michigan coach Juwan Howard has used over the years. The Illini have tinkered with different primary ball-handlers, but a lot of different players get the opportunity to isolate (they rank in the 82nd percentile nationally in iso volume as a team) and push the ball in transition (they average 16.4 fast-break points per game). They rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom, so the formula has worked.

Despite running an average amount of post-ups and not having a dominant big inside, Illinois makes 15.8 shots at the rim per game, the second-most in the Big Ten. The Illini shoot 54.7 percent from inside the arc (40th nationally) and 34.5 percent from deep (135th) with 40.2 percent of their attempts coming from beyond the arc (108th).

Illinois’ biggest strength is on the offensive glass. Head coach Brad Underwood‘s crew grabs 36.2 percent of its own missed shots (20th nationally) and scores 7.6 points per game on put-backs.

3. Illinois on defense
As mentioned above, Illinois has taken a step back defensively as of late, but it still ranks 31st in the country in Kenpom’s efficiency ratings on that end of the floor. The Illini are holding opponents to a 43.7 effective field goal percentage (fifth in the country), just 42.2 percent on twos (third) and 31.4 percent on threes (76th). They’re also strong on the defensive glass, corralling 72.9 percent of their opponents’ missed shots from the field.

The Illini limit three-point attempts (29.9 percent of shots) and force opponents into one-on-one situations with a low assist rate (42.8). However, they don’t force many turnovers (13.6 percent of possessions).

Prediction

Michigan should be able to score, and it would certainly help if 12 three-pointers go in like they did against Ohio State, which broke a five-game losing skid. The Wolverines will have to get on the defensive glass and back in transition, though, two areas that have been issues at different points this season but also improved throughout the year.

Prediction: Illinois 78, Michigan 74