Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. No. 3 Purdue

Michigan Wolverines basketball (8-19 overall, 3-13 Big Ten) is dead last in the Big Ten standings and set to take on the team at the top of the league in No. 3 Purdue (24-3, 13-3). The Maize and Blue are back at home and looking to snap a four-game losing streak, while Purdue is hoping to win its second straight.

Below is everything you need to know before tip-off, including our final score prediction.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Purdue

Date	Sunday, Feb. 25, 2024
Venue	Crisler Center
Time	2 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	CBS
On The Call
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Purdue -13, over/under 151.5
Kenpom Prediction	Purdue 84, Michigan 71 (12-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Michigan starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, redshirt sophomore forward Will Tschetter and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua is out for the season after undergoing wrist surgery. Tschetter missed Thursday’s game at Northwestern with an illness.

Purdue projected starters

• #3 – Sophomore guard Braden Smith (6-0, 175) — Averaging 12.8 points, 7.1 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game, while shooting 50 percent from inside the arc and 42.9 percent from beyond it. His three-point shooting clip has decreased to 34.8 percent during the Big Ten season. He produces 1.059 points per possession in ball-screen situations (including passes), which ranks in the 87th percentile in the country, and he has a 70 effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jump shots (97th percentile).

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Lance Jones (6-1, 200) — The Southern Illinois transfer gave Michigan hell last time out, pressuring the ball and notching 3 steals in addition to his 24 points. He’s registering 12.9 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists per tilt, while connecting on 51.4 percent of his twos and 36.4 percent of his 165 threes. Most of his activity on offense comes on spot-ups (1.053 points per play) and in transition (1.289).

• #2 – Sophomore guard Fletcher Loyer (6-4, 180) — Recording 10.2 points, 2 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. He’s shooting 38.5 percent from inside the arc and 41.3 percent on 104 attempts from long range. He has a 58.4 effective field goal percentage on on catch-and-shoot jumpers.

• #4 – Sophomore forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 230) — Averaging 6.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1 assist per contest. He’s shooting 53.7 percent on twos and is 8-of-19 from long range (42.1 percent). He posts up (0.857 points per possession) and cuts (1.258).

• #15 – Senior center Zach Edey (7-4, 300) — Kenpom’s No. 1 standout on its player of the year rankings is putting up 23.3 points, 11.7 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. He shoots 62 percent on twos and 1-of-2 from long range. He draws 9.3 fouls per 40 minutes and makes 72.2 percent of his free throws. Edey generates 1.019 points per post-up, including passes, and 1.532 as a ball-screen roller.

Key bench contributors
• #0 – Senior forward Mason Gillis (6-6, 225) — Averaging 6.9 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists in a career-low 19.6 minutes per game. He’s shooting 61.3 percent on 31 twos and 48.8 percent on 82 threes.

• #25 – Senior guard Ethan Morton (6-7, 215) — The high-level defender averages 13.2 minutes per game. He has totaled just 22 points and 30 rebounds on the year.

• #1 – Junior forward Caleb Furst (6-10, 225) — Notching 2.7 points and 3.1 rebounds in 10.4 minutes per appearance, after starting 21 of 35 games last season. He makes 48.9 percent of his field goal attempts from inside the arc and is 2-of-10 from beyond it.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Purdue

1. Purdue is on a war path
The Boilermakers famously lost to No. 16 seed Farleigh Dickinson in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. The entire backdrop of this season revolves around avenging that loss and making the program’s first deep tournament run since 2019, when they lost an overtime thriller to Virginia in the Elite Eight.

There were signs of Purdue faltering down the stretch last season, losing four of six games at one point during February, before turning things around and winning the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue has won 10 of its last 11 games at the current juncture, but last Sunday’s stunning loss at Ohio State — which was led by interim head coach Jake Diebler — was a wake up call. The Boilers responded by walloping Rutgers, 96-68, Thursday night at Mackey.

Sitting last in the Big Ten, Michigan is just another object in the way. The Boilermakers blew out the Wolverines by 32 points in West Lafayette Jan. 23 (99-67), with more than half of the game being ‘garbage time.’ Michigan will have McDaniel, but not Nkamhoua, this time around. That will at least give it a chance to keep things competitive in front of a national audience on CBS Sunday.

Nine of Purdue’s 24 victories have come by 20-plus points, which is incredibly impressive. The Boilermakers have overwhelming size, better guard play and a huge transfer pickup in Jones, much improved from last season. Michigan needs to get healthier (Tschetter) and play its best game to keep it close.

2. Can Michigan defend Purdue?
In the last meeting with Purdue, Michigan players looked like chickens with their heads cut off chasing after the Boilermakers’ quick ball movement, trying to rotate out of double teams and help situations but being way too slow and late. Purdue made 13 shots at the rim and 14 threes. It’s impossible to win giving up those numbers.

Purdue is the second-most efficient team in the country, due to its 56.4 effective field goal percentage (11th nationally), making 40.6 percent of its threes (first) and 53.9 percent of its twos (50th), while grabbing 37.6 percent of its offensive rebounds (11th). The Boilers grabbed 14 offensive rebounds against Michigan last time, and there were times where it felt like they were on the power play (hockey).

Purdue runs the most post-up possessions in the country, generating 0.983 points per play (including passes), with Edey drawing as much attention as a player possibly can. They have a 54.9 effective field goal percentage in spot-up situations and also put up 1.041 points per play on ball screens (including passes), ranking in the 97th percentile in the country.

3. What kind of offense can Michigan get?
The No. 1 key to beating Purdue is getting hot from three-point range. Northwestern (10 made threes) and Nebraska (14) each hit double-digit triples in wins over the Boilermakers. Ohio State shot 7-of-21 but cashed in on 56.8 percent of its twos while barely turning the ball over and registering 1.17 points per possession in a four-point win.

Michigan’s three-point shooting numbers have dipped to 34.8 percent during league play, good for seventh in the Big Ten. The Wolverines turn it over on 18.5 percent of their possessions, worst in the conference.

Purdue holds opponents to 47.5 percent shooting from two and 31.9 percent from three. The Boilers are elite on the defensive glass, grabbing over 75 percent of opponents’ missed shots (11th), but only turn teams over at a 14.1-percent rate (338th).

Prediction

Michigan ripped off five-straight wins to cap off the 2018 regular season, before winning four games in as many days to take home a second-straight Big Ten Tournament title. The Wolverines, of course, advanced to the national championship game.

It’s hard to forget all of the wins in that end-of-season stretch, over Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State and Maryland, all of them by double digits. But we’d bet the fan bases of the opponents can hardly remember them — they don’t want to and they have no reason to.

Purdue fans will make the easy trip and blitz Ann Arbor Sunday. It’ll be a memorable trip, but just a stop along the way as the Boilermakers hope to make a deep run in March and into April. Michigan, meanwhile, will have the same questions facing the program Sunday as it did in the two months before.

Prediction: Purdue 83, Michigan 67