Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Ohio State

Michigan Wolverines basketball will take on Ohio State Monday afternoon at Crisler Center. Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off.

Game information: Michigan vs. Maryland

Date	Monday, Jan. 15, 2023
Venue	Crisler Center
Time	12:07 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	FOX
On The Call	Gus Johnson (play-by-play) and Jim Jackson (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -1, over/under 146
Kenpom Prediction	Ohio State 75, Michigan 74

Michigan projected starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate forward Tray Jackson missed Thursday’s game at Maryland, reportedly in concussion protocol. He’s been listed as out for Monday’s tilt.

Ohio State projected starters

• #2 – Sophomore guard Bruce Thornton (6-2, 215) — Averaging 16.6 points, 4.4 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game, while shooting 50.5 percent from inside the arc and 33.3 percent on 87 attempts from beyond it. He ranks in the 86th percentile nationally in ball-screen volume, generating a strong 1.024 points per play (including passes). He’s taken 28.1 percent of Ohio State’s shots when he’s on the floor during Big Ten play, the eighth-highest mark in the conference.

• #1- Sophomore guard Roddy Gayle Jr. (6-4, 210) —  Putting up 14.2 points, 3.1 assists and 5.3 boards per contest, shooting 50 percent on twos and 32.7 percent on 52 three-point tries. Most of his touches come on spot-ups and in pick-and-roll situations.

• #12 – Sophomore forward Evan Mahaffey (6-6, 200) — He’s started all 16 games but is averaging only 21.7 minutes per clash. He’s registering 3.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists per night, while shooting 42.3 percent on twos and just 1-of-10 from long range. His best assets are his offensive rebounding (8.4 percent rate) and ability to block shots (2.7-percent rate) and notch steals (3.9).

• #10 – Fifth-year senior forward Jamison Battle (6-7, 220) — The Minnesota transfer leads the Big Ten with a 77.2 effective field goal percentage during league play. He makes 47.9 percent of his twos and a whopping 46.8 percent of his threes on 109 attempts from deep. He’s up to 57.9 percent on both twos and threes during Big Ten play, really upping his game. He averages 15.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. He produces 1.31 points per possession on spot-ups and 1.64 when coming off dribble handoffs.

• #34 – Sophomore center Felix Okpara (6-11, 235) — Posting 6.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, shooting 66.7 percent from the field, all two-pointers. He’s become a much better interior defender this season, with an 11.4-percent block rate that ranks 14th in the country. He’s not efficient as a post-up big (0.43 points per play), but is on cuts (1.38), put-backs (1.47) and ball-screen rolls (1.06).

Key bench contributors
• #23 – Senior center Zed Key (6-8, 230) — Playing 18.3 minutes per game off the bench, Key puts up 8.9 points and 5.3 boards per night. He’s shooting 61.5 percent on twos and 2-of-5 from deep, with a 15.9-percent offensive rebounding rate that ranks 19th in the country.

• #2 – Fifth-year senior guard Dale Bonner (6-2, 175) — He plays both guard spots off the bench for Ohio State, for 19.9 minutes per game on average. He puts up 5.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game, while connecting on 32 percent of his twos and 31.1 percent of his 45 three-point attempts.

• #0 – Freshman guard Scotty Middleton (6-7, 190) — The four-star, top-60 recruit averages 4.9 points, 1.8 rebounds and 1 assist per outing, while making 37.1 percent of his twos and 41.2 percent of his 34 three-point tries.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Ohio State

Ohio State is a slightly better version of what it was last season, excelling on offense (27th nationally in Kenpom’s efficiency ratings) and playing just average defense (78th).

The Buckeyes play slow, use ball screens to penetrate and shoot as many in-between shots — runners and short jumpers — as anybody in the country. The Buckeyes are hitting 36.8 percent of their three-point tries but don’t have much of a presence at the rim at all, making only 49.9 percent of their twos, other than being a strong offensive rebounding team, grabbing 36.6 percent of their own missed shots (20th in the country).

Thornton is a big, thick guard, which could be tough for McDaniel to deal with, assuming Michigan’s point guard plays. He’s suspended for road games until Feb. 29 but will dress for home tilts.

Ohio State runs man-to-man defense, having logged only two zone possessions this season, per Synergy, and hardly ever applies pressure. The Buckeyes have allowed opponents to register an assist on only 41.1 percent of their made field goals, the eighth-best mark in the country, an indicator that they don’t over-help defensively. However, they also don’t force many turnovers (17 percent of possessions; 216th nationally) and are susceptible to allowing offensive boards (27.9 percent; 123rd).

Prediction

Impressively, Michigan will play in front of a sold-out Crisler Center during its MLK Day matinee against the hated Buckeyes. That should provide the Wolverines a boost, the likes of which they haven’t had this season. Ohio State is hungry coming off two-straight losses (at Indiana, versus Wisconsin), but hasn’t won a true road game this year and won’t buck that trend today.

Prediction: Michigan 80, Ohio State 75