Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Stanford in Battle 4 Atlantis

Michigan Wolverines basketball lost its Battle 4 Atlantis opener to Memphis, 71-67 Wednesday night, and will now take on Stanford Thanksgiving Day.

The Cardinal fell in a double-overtime game to Arkansas, 77-74, to open play on Paradise Island. That was their second loss of the season, after falling 89-77 to Santa Clara Nov. 14. They have wins over Cal St. Northridge (88-79), Sacramento State (91-73) and Eastern Washington (95-70).

Michigan head man Juwan Howard was on the bench last night but acting head coach Phil Martelli was technically still in charge. Howard is recovering from a Sept. 15 heart procedure and continues to improve.

“It was exciting to be out there with our young men and staff. They have been so supportive and caring,” Howard said in a statement after last night’s game. “I truly feel blessed. Today was just another step forward. I am looking forward to making a full return.”

Here’s everything you need to get ready for tip off.

RELATED
• Michigan basketball begins Battle 4 Atlantis with 71-67 loss to Memphis

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Stanford

Date	Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023
Venue	Atlantis Resort’s Imperial Ballroom Arena (3,500)
Time	7:30 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	ESPNU
On The Call	Kevin Fitzgerald (play-by-play) and Andraya Carter (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -2.5, over/under 148
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 77, Stanford 74 (62-percent chance of U-M victory)

Projected Michigan starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn has transitioned into “light contact drills” during practice but hasn’t been fully cleared yet, per assistant Saddi Washington Nov. 16. Martelli said that he won’t return during this tournament. On Nov. 3, U-M announced that junior guard Jace Howard would miss 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his right knee and tibia.

Stat to know: Michigan produced less than 0.5 points per possession on ball screens in Wednesday’s loss to Stanford.

Trend to watch: Michigan shot 32 of 78 (41 percent) from three-point range in its first three games but is 17 of 52 since (32.7).

Projected Stanford starters

• #1 – Graduate guard Jared Bynum (5-10, 185) — The Providence transfer was the Big East Sixth Man of the Year last season. He averaged 10 points and 4.3 assists per contest. This season for the Cardinal, he’s putting up 10.2 points and a whopping 8.4 assists per game with a pair of 10-assist outings. He’s scored 16 of his 51 points in transition, but he’s at his best as a ball-screen distributor. He has the defense on a string when it commits to him, spraying the ball to spot-up shooters, rollers and cutters.

• #13 – Graduate guard Michael Jones (6-5, 205) — The Davidson transfer spent last season at Stanford, averaging 9.5 points and shooting 35.1 percent from deep. He’s registering 11.6 points and 3.2 boards this year, shooting 10 of 16 on twos and 10 of 26 (38.5 percent) on threes. Spot up shooter that comes off a lot of dribble handoffs. He can drive and finish at the rim, with a 64.3 field goal percentage from in close.

• #2 – Freshman guard Andrej Stojakovic (6-7, 190) — The former Michigan recruiting target has started the last three games for Stanford, putting up 12 points and 3.2 boards per night. He had 18 in back-to-back games against Santa Clara and Eastern Washington. He’s shooting 50 percent on twos and 9-of-22 (40.9) on threes. He’s made 55.6 percent of his shots at the rim and is better on jumpers (55 effective field goal percentage).

• #14 – Fifth-year senior forward Spencer Jones (6-7, 225) — Named All-Pac-12 second team last season, he averaged a team-high 14.1 points per game and shot 38.9 percent from beyond the arc. He’s second in program history with 269 career made triples. He’s shooting 38.1 percent on 21 attempts from deep this season, registering 12.5 points per contest with 2 assists and 4.5 rebounds. He’s a perimeter-oriented forward who’s seen 62.5 percent of his field goal attempts come on jump shots. He’s made only 45.5 percent of his tries at the rim.

• #42 – Junior forward Maxime Raynaud (7-1, 250) — The Paris, France, native is shooting 60 percent on twos and 92.9 percent on free throws. He has an 11.2 offensive rebounding rate and 20.2 defensive rebounding percentage, and takes 27 percent of Stanford’s shots when he’s on the floor. He’s leading the team with 17 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, adding 2.2 assists. He’s the recipient of a lot of Bynum pick-and-roll passes on rolls to the basket, but he also spots up, cuts and posts up. He shoots an outstanding 67.9 percent at the rim.

Key bench contributors
• #23 – Senior forward Brandon Angel (6-8, 240) — Averaged 9.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists per contest while shooting 51.6 percent from the field and 39 percent from three last season. He’s put up 14.3 points and 5.3 boards per game in three appearances this season. He’s 3-of-5 from beyond the arc and an outstanding 13-of-17 from inside the line. He spots up and loves to drive right. He’s been able to get to the rim for 11 made field goals, shooting 73.3 percent from in close.

• #22 – Graduate forward James Keefe (6-9, 240) — Put up 4.8 points and 4.2 rebounds per game, shooting 58.7 percent from the field, a year ago. He’s up to 5.3 points and 6 rebounds per contest this season, shooting 8-of-11 on twos as the backup center.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Stanford

1. A look at Stanford
Stanford went 14-19 last season but had the 33rd-most efficient offense in the country. The Cardinal are playing well on that end of the floor to begin this season and have been very similar to Michigan, losing to a team above No. 100 in Kenpom (Santa Clara, No. 104) and a close one to start the Battle 4 Atlantis.

Stanford averages 15.8 seconds per possession, looking to push the pace, and has shot the ball well from inside the arc (54.4 percent) and beyond it (36.2) while taking care of the ball (turnovers on only 14.8 percent of plays). They notch assists on 57.6 percent of their passes, led by Bynum, who controls the pace and flow of the offense.

On defense, Stanford mixes in some zone on just over six percent of possessions and doesn’t pressure much. It’s a man-to-man unit that has a stellar two-point field goal percentage allowed (42.9) but has seen Santa Clara and Eastern Washington each make 13 threes against them. Opponents are shooting 36.8 percent from beyond the arc. Arkansas was cold last night, however, going 5-of-19 from deep.

2. Keep crashing
Michigan should have an advantage on the boards. The Wolverines are going to need to take advantage of that tonight and throughout the season, especially if the half-court offense was as ugly and inefficient as it was against Memphis. The Wolverines are 18th in the country with a 39.4 offensive rebounding rate and have grabbed over 41 percent of their own misses in each of the last three games.

Stanford has been susceptible to allowing offensive rebounds, with opponents grabbing them on 31.6 percent of their own missed shots. Arkansas (38.2), Santa Clara (31.6) and even Sacramento State (42.2) all grabbed more than 30 percent of their missed shots. The Cardinal have given up 5.6 points per game on put-backs. If Michigan can get to or, ideally, surpass that number, it could be the difference.

3. Both teams desperate
This Michigan season is starting to feel like the last one, quickly, even with all the new faces on the roster and the ones that departed for the NBA or Kansas.

Last year, the Wolverines looked great in a 91-60 win over Pittsburgh before being embarrassed by Arizona State, going to overtime against Ohio, struggling to a win over Jackson State and then losing to Virginia and Kentucky. Michigan had three losses by Dec. 4.

Losing close doesn’t cut it, and the Wolverines are in jeopardy of falling behind the eight-ball like they did a year ago, digging a hole that they just couldn’t climb out of. One of the bigger disappointments of losing last night was that Michigan doesn’t have another chance to play a good/very good team in Arkansas.

Per Kenpom, Northern Iowa is a seven-point underdog to Texas Tech. The Panthers are 1-3 this season. Neither Michigan nor Stanford wants to play them, since there’s not a ton of upside to it. Now, one of the most important things with this game is to win so they can face Texas Tech and pick up a semi-quality victory.

Prediction

Michigan’s legs will be fresher than Stanford, having played a couple hours earlier and the Cardinal playing an extra 10 minutes in a double-overtime loss. The Cardinal had four players play 35-plus minutes and two others at 29-plus. Like Michigan, this doesn’t appear to be a deep team.

The Wolverines will have to defend in transition and the half court better than they did last night. McDaniel should match up better on Bynum than he did on Memphis’ Jahvon Quinerly, though.

Prediction: Michigan 80, Stanford 77