Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Texas Tech in Battle 4 Atlantis

Michigan Wolverines basketball has the chance to leave the Battle 4 Atlantis with a win in the fifth-place game and two victories overall, after an opening-round loss to Memphis and bounce-back win over Stanford. The Maize and Blue will tip off against Texas Tech at the Imperial Ball Room Friday evening on Paradise Island.

Texas Tech is 4-1 in its first season under head coach Grant McCasland, who was previously at North Texas. The Red Raiders won three buy games before falling to Villanova (85-69) and beating Northern Iowa (72-70) in the Bahamas.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Texas Tech

Date	Friday, Nov. 24, 2023
Venue	Atlantis Resort’s Imperial Ballroom Arena (3,500)
Time	Approximately 6 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	ESPNU
On The Call	Kevin Fitzgerald (play-by-play) and Andraya Carter (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -2.5, over/under 140
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 72, Texas Tech 70 (59-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn has transitioned into “light contact drills” during practice but hasn’t been fully cleared yet, per assistant Saddi Washington Nov. 16. Martelli said that he won’t return during this tournament. On Nov. 3, U-M announced that junior guard Jace Howard would miss 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his right knee and tibia.

Stat to know: Michigan has won with offense this season. The Wolverines have scored 1.2 points per possession or better in all four of its victories and less than that in each loss. For context, the Maize and Blue hit 1.2 PPP in only five games a year ago. Michigan currently ranks 17th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Kenpom.

Trend to watch: In Michigan’s four wins, Williams is shooting 11-of-20 from three-point range. In losses, he’s 2-of-11 from deep.

Projected Texas Tech starters

• #2 – Sophomore guard Pop Isaacs (6-2, 180) — He averaged 12.4 points per game in Big 12 play and led Texas Tech with 62 three-pointers last season. He’s up to 13.8 points and 3 assists per outing this year, shooting 30.4 percent on twos and 31.6 percent on 38 three-point shots. He produces 0.97 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), ranking in the 68th percentile nationally.

• #6 – Redshirt senior guard Joe Toussaint (6-0, 195) — The Iowa (2019-22) and West Virginia (2022-23) transfer is at his third school in as many years. He’s physical for a guard, shooting 30 percent of his shots at the rim and making 66.7 percent of them while playing strong defense. He’s leading the team with 14 points per game, adding 2.8 assists and 2.4 rebounds. He’s shooting career bests on twos (61.5 percent) and is 7-of-24 from three (29.2). He’s been excellent on ball screens, generating 1.3 points per play, including passes (97th percentile in the country).

• #35 – Redshirt senior forward Devan Cambridge (6-6, 210) — The Auburn (2019-22) and Arizona State (2022-23) transfer is on his third school, like Toussaint. He’s averaging 8.4 points and 4.6 boards per tilt and shooting 60.9 percent on twos and 1-of-6 on threes. He’s a rare player that scores the majority of his points (13 on the year) on cuts. He also rolls and slips after setting screens, with 10 points in those situations. He’s shooting 66.7 percent at the rim but 1 of 8 on all other attempts.

• #5 – Sophomore guard Darrion Williams (6-6, 225) — The Nevada transfer was the Mountain West Freshman of the Year last season. This year, he’s putting up 9.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest. He shoots 66.7 percent on 18 twos and is 4-of-17 on threes as a power forward and backup center. He both spots up (0.83 points per play) and posts up (1.7), runs in transition and crashes the offensive glass.

• #22 – Redshirt senior forward Warren Washington (7-0, 230) — Michigan pursued the Arizona State transfer out of the transfer portal this past offseason. He averages 8.4 points and 7.8 boards per clash and makes 50 percent of his shots, all coming from inside the arc. Washington is a great rim protector with a 6.7-percent block rate, grabs a lot of rebounds, draws a fair amount of fouls and shoots 60 percent at the line (12-of-20).

Key bench contributors

• #0 – Senior guard Chance McMillian (6-3, 185) — The Grand Canyon transfer plays 24.6 minutes per game off the bench, averaging 7.4 points and 3.8 rebounds per clash. He’s shot 7-of-10 on twos and 7-of-22 on threes. He’s a spot-up shooter who’s seen 22 of his 32 field goal attempts come in catch-and-shoot situations.

• #1 – Sophomore guard Lamar Washington (6-4, 200) — Putting up 4.6 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 17.8 minutes per contest, shooting 33.3 percent overall and 2-of-11 from beyond the arc.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Texas Tech

1. Get a hand up
Michigan’s three-point defense has been an issue. There are times when the close-outs are late after slow rotations, and there are other occasions when there’s no close-out at all. That has to be improved. Texas Tech hasn’t shot a great clip from deep — in fact, its 28-percent three-point field goal percentage is poor — but 45 percent of its shots come from beyond the arc. In a loss to Villanova to begin the Battle 4 Atlantis, Texas Tech shot 36 threes and 15 twos.

2. What Texas Tech does well
As is typically the case, the Red Raiders hang their hat on defense, ranking 20th nationally on Kenpom on that end of the floor. They force turnovers (20.3 percent of possessions), don’t foul much, are very good on the defensive glass, block shots and allow opponents to shoot just 46.2 percent on twos (92nd nationally) and 27.9 percent on threes (59th).

The last time these two teams played, Michigan scored just .71 points per possession in a 63-44 loss in the 2019 Sweet 16. That Texas Tech team ranked first in the country in defensive efficiency, an absolute nightmare to play against. This group isn’t as elite — their last two opponents, Villanova (1.19) and Northern Iowa (1.06) surpassed 1 point per play — but they take pride in their defense.

Texas Tech plays man to man almost exclusively and sprinkles in some full-court pressure (6 percent of possessions). They’ll really get into the ball-handler in the half court. It’s been great at defending in transition despite being a good offensive rebounding team.

Texas Tech is 135th nationally in offensive efficiency, with a 47.3 effective field goal percentage and turnovers on 20 percent of their possessions. They do grab 31.8 percent of their own missed shots and make it to the foul line a lot, though.

3. Do it all, Dug
McDaniel has been on the floor for 87.1 percent of Michigan’s minutes this season, including playing 34 and 37 the last two days, respectively. He said last night that he was going to spend time with his family and get off his feet, and that he’d be good to go for Friday’s matchup. But it’d be hard to blame him if the Wolverines’ lack of guard depth came back to bite him at some point. Yesterday, Michigan essentially ran a seven-man rotation with both backups being forwards.

Texas Tech allows opponents to shoot 41.6 percent of their field goal attempts from behind the long line. Michigan was able to get 4 triples from Williams and one from redshirt sophomore Will Tschetter against Stanford, swinging the fortunes in their favor. Against a team that will also take a lot of jump shots, the outcome could be determined by just how many of those go in on each side.

Prediction

Both teams are playing three games in three days, and neither have large rotations. Texas Tech will really make Michigan work defensively, and the Wolverines will have to take care of the ball. They haven’t done a great job at that in recent days, turning it over on 18.9 percent of their possessions each of the last three games.

Michigan can look at its trip to the Bahamas as somewhat of a success with a win. A loss makes it a failure and means they’ll have to make up ground, which won’t be easy with a tough stretch coming up.

Prediction: Texas Tech 70, Michigan 67