Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. UNC Asheville

Michigan Wolverines basketball will tip off the season Tuesday night against UNC Asheville. The new-look Maize and Blue squad — led by associate and interim head coach Phil Martelli — was picked 11th in the Big Ten by the media but is determined to make it back to the NCAA Tournament, and early-season, non-conference success will be crucial.

UNC Asheville, led by sixth-year head coach Mike Morrell, is the favorite in the Big South and seeking a second straight bid to the Big Dance.

To get you ready for tip off, here’s a breakdown of key players, what to watch for and our final score prediction.

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• Wolverine TV: Phil Martelli, Dug McDaniel preview Michigan basketball opener against UNC Asheville
• Fab Five: Takeaways from Michigan’s exhibition win over Northwood

Game information: Michigan basketball vs. UNC Asheville

Date	Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2023
Venue	Crisler Center
Time	8:30 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	Big Ten Network
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan -11.5, over/under 142
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan 76, UNC Asheville 64

Projected Michigan starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn had not yet practiced full-go as of last week, while recovering from an ACL injury suffered last December. Junior guard Jace Howard is out 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his right knee and tibia. Reed sat the second half of the exhibition game due to a minor groin ailment, but it’s not considered serious.

Stat to know: Michigan made 22 dunks/layups compared to Northwood’s 19 made field goals in a 92-45 exhibition win Friday night.

Trend to watch: Reed posted a double-double with 13 points and 10 rebounds in 11 first-half minutes against Northwood. He hasn’t yet scored in double figures in a regular season game during his career, but his role will be much bigger this year.

Projected UNC Asheville starters

• #2 – Fifth-year senior guard Caleb Burgess (6-3, 185) — Averaged 5.1 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2 assists per game last season, shooting 40.4 percent overall and 7-of-23 from three-point range. He started 26 of 35 games for the Bulldogs a year ago. Including passes, he posted 0.91 points per possession on ball screens.

• #12 – Junior guard Evan Johnson (5-11, 165) — The Georgia State transfer played in 20 games with nine starts with his previous school last season. He put up 9.3 points and 2.3 assists per contests a year ago, shooting 32.1 percent overall and 27 percent from three.

• #5 – Senior guard Fletcher Abee (6-4, 190) — He registered 8 points per contest last season and is one of the best shooters on the team. He made 52 of 125 three-point attempts last season (41.6 percent) and 41.14 percent of his overall shots. He’s a spot-up shooter that plays almost exclusively off the ball.

• #13 – Senior forward Nick McMullen (6-8, 237) — The big man scores off of cuts, post-ups and ball screen rolls, and doesn’t spend much time on the perimeter. He averaged 8 points and 5.8 rebounds per game last season, connecting on 55.9 percent of his field goals.

• #4 – Fifth-year senior forward Drew Pember (6-11, 215) — He’s the reigning Big Ten South Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year (and preseason player of the year). He’s a stretch five that’s most common offensive action is spotting up. The team’s leading returner in made three-point field goals made 57 of his 153 triples (37.3 percent) last season.

Other key contributors
• #3 – Senior guard Josh Banks (6-5, 175) — The VCU transfer never averaged more than 9.2 minutes per game in a season during his three years in Richmond. He notched 2.8 points per contest on 41.4 percent shooting from the field a year ago.

• #11 – Redshirt senior forward Greg Gantt Jr. (6-8, 210) — The NC State transfer started 17 of 22 games for the Wolfpack last season. He was at Providence the previous season. He’s only scored 216 career points in 75 games.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. UNC Asheville

1. A tricky first test

UNC Asheville is experienced and returns four of five starters. The Bulldogs were picked to win the Big South and appear in the NCAA Tournament for a second straight season, after earning a No. 15 seed last year and losing to UCLA in the first round.

Pember is the guy to watch. A former teammate of Nkamhoua at Tennessee, it appears Michigan’s forward will draw that matchup. He borderline demanded it, per Martelli, though others will also see time on him. Pember is dangerous from beyond the arc, including a from a few feet behind the line. He’s slender but can move. He drew 8.1 fouls per 40 minutes last season, the second-best mark in the country. It’ll be important for Nkamhoua and Reed to stay out of foul trouble, especially given the Wolverines’ lack of frontcourt depth beyond those two.

Last season, UNC Asheville was great at getting to the foul line, even though it shot just 50 percent from inside the arc and didn’t grab many offensive rebounds. It was a good defensive club, particularly at guarding three-pointers (opponents shot just 29.1 percent from deep last season) and not fouling.

2. When things get tough…
Everything came easy for Michigan in its 92-45 exhibition win over Northwood Friday night. The ball didn’t stick because Northwood — which went 2-26 in Division II last season — didn’t shut down any passing lanes, stop the man with the ball or provide any resistance.

UNC Asheville will be a much bigger test, of course, and we’ll see how the Wolverines respond to that — when the first option isn’t there, when the shots are contested, when the passing lanes aren’t as wide open, when the opposition’s shots are going down, etc. It’ll be in those moments that we’ll learn what this Michigan team is, though it’ll be a continual build and evolution throughout the season.

3. What was real from exhibition win?
Michigan shot 12-of-27 on threes, held Northwood to 26 percent shooting, made 22 layups/dunks, scored 24 fastbreak points and had 21 assists on 36 buckets in the exhibition game.

As the regular season begins and goes on, we’ll begin to learn how much of that were indicators of if Michigan has actually tweaked its style and shifted its strengths, and how much of it was just the product of playing a bad D-II team.

Graduate forward Tray Jackson is also one to keep an eye on early on in the season. He looks like the better option at the ‘3’ over Williams, but Martelli said that Williams has earned the starting nod at this point. Jackson is a potential X-factor for this team, with his length, shooting ability and switchability on defense. Jackson put up 20 points in the exhibition and looked good in Michigan’s Maize vs. Blue scrimmage. Regardless of whether or not he starts, he’ll have a big role.

Reed was also dominant in 11 first-half minutes. He couldn’t be stopped down low. In the preseason, he appears to have improved his ability to catch the ball and finish at the rim. If he can continue to display that this season, he raises Michigan’s season significantly.

Prediction

Ohio State struggled in a 79-73 win over Oakland (No. 271 on Kenpom). Michigan State lost to James Madison (No. 136) on its home floor to James Madison. UNC Asheville is the preseason favorite to win the Big South. This group of players (for the most part) know what it takes to play in big games, including the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan, shorthanded, is certainly ripe for the picking on opening night. At the same time, these Wolverines went in and beat preseason Marquette in a secret scrimmage, have a lot to prove and are a veteran bunch themselves.

Prediction: Michigan 74, UNC Asheville 64