Previewing Michigan Football Vs. Ohio State With A Buckeyes Insider

By Clayton Sayfie

TheWolverine.com caught up with Lettermen Row‘s Spencer Holbrook for insight on the Ohio State Buckeyes before their game against Michigan Wolverines football Saturday in Columbus. Holbrook broke down the Buckeyes and made a final score prediction. We begin with the projected starting lineup for Ohio State:

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Ohio State projected starters on offense

• #18 – Graduate QB Will Howard (6-4, 235) — The Kansas State transfer leads the nation with a 74 percent completion mark, throwing for 2,685 yards and 26 touchdowns with 6 interceptions. He’s started 38 career games in college football. Howard has rushed 21 times for 40 yards and 7 touchdowns in the red zone, as well.

• #1 – Junior RB Quinshon Judkins (6-0, 219) — The Ole Miss transfer leads the team with 759 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on 135 carries. Judkins has forced 35 missed tackles and broken off 12 runs of 15-plus yards. He splits time with senior TreVeyon Henderson, who ranks tied for eighth nationally with 7.4 yards per carry and has amassed 730 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. Henderson has seen 51 percent of his rushing yards come on 15 rushes of 15-plus yards. Judkins and Henderson have combined for 32 receptions on the year.

• #4 – Freshman WR Jeremiah Smith (6-3, 215) — Was the first No. 1 overall recruit at the wide receiver position since Florida’s Percy Harvin in 2006. He paces the team with 899 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns on 52 receptions. His 17.3 yards-per-catch average leads the Power Four among receivers with more than 50 catches. Twenty-three of his catches have come on passes of 10-plus air yards, including 6 of 20-plus.

• #2 – Graduate WR Emeka Egbuka (6-1, 205) — Leads the team with 56 catches, racking up 692 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. The slot receiver has seen 41 of his receptions come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and he averages 6.2 yards after the catch per grab.

• #17 – Sophomore WR Carnell Tate (6-3, 191) — Has hauled in 35 catches for 525 yards and 4 touchdowns. Two of his scores came two weeks ago against Northwestern (in his hometown of Chicago), and he’s had 14 grabs over the last three outings. Seventeen of his catches have come on passes of 10-plus air yards.

• #88 – Graduate TE Gee Scott Jr. (6-3, 243) — The fifth-year Buckeye has reeled in 14 catches for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has a 54.1 PFF run-blocking rating.

• #74 – Senior LT Donovan Jackson (6-4, 320) — Was the starting left guard earlier in the season but slid out to left tackle after Josh Simmons went down with an injury and has opened the last four games there. He’s allowed 8 pressures and 2 sacks in four contests as a left tackle. Jackson is entering his 36th career start.

• #67 – Sophomore LG Austin Siereveld (6-5, 320) — Has started three career games, including as the left guard last week in a 38-15 win over Indiana. He’s given up 3 pressures and 2 sacks in 290 pass-blocking snaps this season, and has posted a 69.3 overall PFF rating.

• #75 – Junior C Carson Hinzman (6-5, 300) — Started all 12 regular-season games at center last season, including at Michigan, before losing the job to Alabama transfer Seth McLaughlin this year. He opened three games at left guard once Jackson moved out to tackle, and he’s now the starting center with McLaughlin going down with a season-ending Achilles injury in practice last week. He has a 63.1 overall PFF rating with 4 pressures and 1 sack given up in 141 pass-blocking snaps.

• #77 – Junior RG Tegra Tshabola (6-6, 327) — The first-year starter has a 59.5 overall PFF grade. He’s allowed 8 pressures (no sacks) this season.

• #70 – Senior RT Josh Fryar (6-5, 320) — Has started 25 career contests and earned first-team All-Big Ten honors last season. He has a 64.0 overall PFF grade with 8 pressures and 1 sack yielded.

Ohio State projected starters on defense

• #58 – Senior DT Ty Hamilton (6-3, 295) — Having played in 49 career games, he’s racked up 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks over the last four years. This season, he has 35 tackles, including 4.5 for loss and 2.5 sacks, with a forced fumble and fumble recovery. He has 9 pressures.

• #91 – Senior DT Tyleik Williams (6-3, 327) — Has made 116 tackles — including 24 behind the line of scrimmage with 11.5 sacks — in his 46-game career. He’s totaled 25 stops, including 5 for loss and 2.5 sacks, with 8 pressures this year.

• #33 – Senior DE Jack Sawyer (6-5, 260) — The 2023 second-team All-Big Ten standout ranks third among Big Ten edge rushers with 40 pressures, adding 4.5 sacks. He’s registered 42 total tackles, 2 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries.

• #44 – Senior DE JT Tuimoloau (6-5, 269) — The 2023 first-team All-Big Ten honoree leads the team with 6 sacks, adding 35 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 30 pressures.

• #0 – Graduate LB Cody Simon (6-2, 235) — The fifth-year senior is second on the team with 65 tackles, including 8 for loss and 5 sacks. He’s broken up 4 passes and has a 73.0 PFF coverage grade.

• #6 – Junior LB Sonny Styles (6-4, 235) — Moved from safety to linebacker this season, and is the team’s leading tackler with 71. He’s registered 6.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and 3 pass breakups. He has a 75.1 PFF coverage grade.

• #7 – Senior NB Jordan Hancock (6-1, 195) — The second-year starter has tallied 30 tackles, including 1.5 for loss, 6 pass breakups and an interception. He owns a 76.5 PFF coverage rating and has given up 18 receptions for 133 yards and no touchdowns on 31 targets.

• #10 – Senior CB Denzel Burke (6-1, 193) — If he’s in on the first defensive snap Saturday, he will have started more games than any other cornerback in Ohio State history (currently at 46, tied for the program record). He’s racked up 37 tackles, including 2 for loss, 2 picks and a pair of pass breakups. He had a rough outing against Oregon, giving up 8 catches and 2 touchdowns, but has allowed only 28 catches for 370 yards on the season.

• #1 – Junior CB Davison Igbinosun (6-2, 193) — In his second season at Ohio State after transferring in from Ole Miss, Igbinosun has recorded 28 tackles with 2 for loss, 6 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. He’s been penalized 13 times, more than any defender in the country. He has a 62.0 PFF coverage grade, yielding 21 catches for 258 yards and 1 touchdown on 40 targets.

• #8 – Senior S Lathan Ransom (6-1, 210) — The team’s active leader in tackles has made 48 stops this season, including 5.5 for loss. He’s added an interception and a pass breakup and has posted an 85.0 PFF coverage rating. On 21 targets in coverage, he’s allowed 13 receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown.

• #2 – Sophomore S Caleb Downs (6-0, 205) — The 2023 SEC Freshman of the Year totaled 107 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions and 5 pass breakups at Alabama last season, before transferring to Ohio State. He’s third on the Buckeyes with 50 tackles, including 6.5 for loss, and has broken up 3 passes. He has a stellar 81.7 PFF coverage grade, with 14 catches for 123 yards and no touchdowns allowed on 20 targets. He’s a finalist for the Thorpe and Bednarik Awards.

Ohio State specialists

• #38 – Junior K Jayden Fielding (6-0, 175) — He’s 24-of-29 with a 47-yard long on field goals in his career. This season, he’s 8-of-9 with a 46-yard long. He also handles kickoff duties, booting 51 touchbacks (and 3 kicks out of bounds) on 72 attempts.

• #42 – Sophomore P Joe McGuire (6-2, 212) — Averaging 43 yards per punt with a 61-yard long and 10 that have pinned opponents inside their own 20-yard line. His 3.83-second average hangtime ranks 15th in the Big Ten. Only 24.1 percent of his punts have been returned, with 17 fair catches.

• #32 – Senior KR TreVeyon Henderson (5-10, 208) — Returned 4 kicks for 58 yards with a 19-yard long.

• #2 – Sophomore PR Caleb Downs (6-0, 205) — Brought back a punt 79 yards for a touchdown last week against Indiana. He’s returned 5 this season, averaging 20.4 yards per attempt.

Will Howard has been ‘really good’ for Ohio State

Howard took over the starting quarterback duties this season following Kyle McCord‘s transfer to Syracuse. Howard was solid at Kansas State but was set to compete for the job with Avery Johnson and decided to look for greener pastures, which he’s found in Columbus.

“He has been really good,” Holbrook said. “In the win over Indiana, Howard became the first quarterback in Ohio State history to have six games in which his completion percentage was at least 80 percent. He has been so efficient in this offense and seems to be playing his best ball in November.

“We saw him use his legs in the games against Penn State and Oregon, and he was a really good runner in the win over Penn State. In some ways, he has been the distributor Ohio State asked for. In other ways, he has exceeded expectations through 11 games.

“His legacy as a Buckeyes quarterback, though, will be on the line Saturday. Up until now, he has been fantastic, even in the loss to Oregon.”

He’s got great wide receivers and running backs around him, too, of course.

“The skill talent is just so, so good,” Holbrook explained. “Jeremiah Smith is the best freshman receiver I have ever seen, and it’s crazy to even consider calling Emeka Egbuka a ‘second’ receiver or Carnell Tate a ‘third option.’

“Both tailbacks are elite players who are both healthy; TreVeyon Henderson has never been healthy for a Michigan game in his career. Will Howard has done a tremendous job distributing the football to the weapons.”

Ohio State’s patchwork offensive line

As broken down above, the Buckeyes have had to do some shuffling on the offensive line due to injuries, with McLaughlin going down last week being the latest blow.

“Well, they’re playing their second-string center (the starting center from last year) and the starting left guard is now playing left tackle,” Holbrook said. “Left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin, the leader for the Rimington Award, are both out for the year. So the offensive line depth has been tested.

“With that being said, the Buckeyes have shown the depth to be a strength — but they haven’t seen a front like they’ll see Saturday (as you all know). Michigan has legit NFL dudes up front, and the Ohio State offensive line will need to be at its best Saturday. The Buckeyes have managed to make the Joe Moore Award semifinal list even with the injuries. It’s prove-it time Saturday.”

Ohio State cornerbacks are a question mark, but the front is strong

On a per-game basis, pass defense hasn’t shown up as a weak point for the Buckeyes, who give up only 151.2 yards through the air on average. However, the cornerbacks have had their issues, including against Oregon’s potent passing attack in a 32-31 loss in Eugene.

“The cornerbacks have been the weakness,” Holbrook stated. “If you have receivers who can take the top off of a defense, Denzel Burke has given up a couple of those this season. And on the other side, Davison Igbinosun has more penalties called on him than any defensive player in the country. That’s not to say they’ve been bad at all; Oregon was the one team to make them pay for the cornerback play.”

Only Oregon has put up more than 20 points on Ohio State, which has only surrendered more than 100 rushing yards in five games. The Buckeyes also get pressure on 39.8 percent of dropbacks, the top mark in the country, per PFF.

“This defensive line is playing really, really well lately — especially on the edge with Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau,” Holbrook said. “Linebacker play was a question entering the year, but they’ve been really good and improving.

“The biggest strength, though, is in the safety room. Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom make up the best safety duo in the country.”

Concerns and reasons for optimism

We asked Holbrook to state his biggest concern and the No. 1 reason for optimism if he was an Ohio State coach.

“I’d feel best about the Ohio State weapons against the Michigan secondary,” he explained. “If [U-M junior cornerback] Will Johnson doesn’t play, Michigan will need a mammoth effort from its defensive backs to slow down the Buckeyes.

“On the other side of that coin, what is likely keeping Day up at night is the Michigan defensive front. I can’t stress enough how impressive [junior defensive tackle] Mason Graham is. Special player who Ohio State will have to limit on Saturday.”

Holbrook’s final score prediction

“I think Ohio State is going to get Michigan’s absolute best shot,” Holbrook began. “Whether it’s some trickery or just good football being played, the Wolverines are coming to Columbus to wreck the Buckeyes’ goal of getting to the Big Ten title game, and they won’t just let Ohio State do what it wants. It’s a Michigan team that still has a lot of that national title DNA, one that knows how to win in Columbus. 

“But I don’t think the Wolverines have enough offensively, and the defense will be on the field for a lot of this game. Give me Ohio State in a game that plays very close in the first half and ends up with a late Ohio State score to cap off a rivalry win.”

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Michigan 13