Previewing Michigan Vs. Indiana With A Hoosiers Insider

By Clayton Sayfie

TheWolverine.com caught up with Zach Osterman of The Indianapolis Star for insight on the Indiana Hoosiers ahead of their game against Michigan Wolverines football. Osterman broke down the Hoosiers and offered a final score prediction. We start with a projection of Indiana’s starting lineup:

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Indiana projected starters on offense

• #9 – Redshirt senior QB Kurtis Rourke (6-5, 223) — The Ohio transfer was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2022 and a second-team all-conference selection last season. In his five seasons in Athens, he appeared in 36 games with 33 starts, completing 638 of 963 passes (66.3 percent) for 7,651 yards and 50 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. This season, he’s completed 73.3 percent of his throws for 2,204 yards and 19 scores with 3 picks. He’s been under pressure on only 20.7 percent of his dropbacks. He’s completed 17 passes of 20-plus air yards, tied for the 12th most in the Power Four.

• #6 – Senior RB Justice Ellison (5-9, 210) — The Wake Forest transfer amassed 1,909 yards and 15 touchdowns on 427 carries in 43 outings with 20 starts at his previous school. He’s leading the Hoosiers with 669 rushing yards and 9 scores this season, adding 8 catches for 64 yards. His mark of 4 yards after contact per rush ranks fifth among Big Ten running backs with 50-plus carries.

• #13 – Junior WR Elijah Sarratt (6-2, 209) — The James Madison transfer is the team’s leader in catches (37), receiving yards (649) and touchdown grabs (5). The big-play threat has made 8 contested catches, tied for the third most in the Big Ten, and has made 19 grabs on throws of 10-plus air yards. He earned first-team All-Sun Belt honors last season, hauling in 82 catches for 1,191 yards and 8 touchdowns.

• #19 – Senior WR Miles Cross (5-11, 210) — Played with Rourke at Ohio, competing in 37 games with 22 starts and totaling 105 catches for 1,301 yards and 8 touchdowns. He’s brought in 25 receptions for 289 yards and 3 scores this fall. Cross averages only 3.2 yards after the catch per reception.

• #4 – Senior WR Myles Price (5-9, 183) — The slot receiver played in 42 games with 25 starts, earned an honorable mention All-Big 12 nod and accumulated 1,751 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on 161 receptions at Texas Tech (2020-23). He’s third on the Hoosiers with 361 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns on 28 catches. He’s Indiana’s most targeted receiver on third down (13), with 9 catches for 155 yards and 8 first downs.

• #44 – Senior TE Zach Horton (6-4, 252) — The James Madison transfer was selected as first-team All-Sun Belt last season, totaling 27 receptions for 275 yards and 6 touchdowns. He has 16 grabs for 141 yards and 3 scores this season. He’s tied with Sarratt for the most red-zone targets on the team (8), making 7 catches with 3 touchdowns. His 67.2 PFF run-blocking grade ranks fifth on the team among players with 100-plus offensive snaps.

• #65 – Redshirt sophomore LT Carter Smith (6-5, 308) — Has started 22 career games at Indiana. He has a 78.8 overall PFF grade, with 5 pressures and no sacks given up this year. His 83.5 pass-blocking grade ranks fifth among Big Ten tackles with 100-plus snaps.

• #62 – Redshirt sophomore LG Drew Evans (6-4, 306) — The first-year starter spent a season at Wisconsin (2022) before transferring to Indiana. He has a 69.7 overall PFF rating, and has given up only 3 pressures. His 85.3 pass-blocking grade checks in third among Big Ten guards with 100-plus snaps.

• #56 – Redshirt senior C Mike Katic (6-4, 318) — Has started 46 career games for the Hoosiers. He owns a 72.2 overall PFF rating with 7 pressures and no sacks allowed in 2024.

• #74 – Redshirt sophomore RG Bray Lynch (6-5, 307) — The first-year starter is fifth among Big Ten guards (minimum 100 snaps) with an 82.2 PFF pass-blocking grade, yielding only 2 pressures and no sacks this season. He has a 68.9 overall PFF grade.

• #75 – Redshirt senior RT Trey Wedig (6-7, 319) — The Wisconsin transfer appeared in 35 outings with eight starts in four seasons with the Badgers (2020-23). He’s opened all nine games for Indiana this year, posting a 78.1 overall PFF grade with a team-worst 8 pressures allowed.

Indiana projected starters on defense

• #8 – Redshirt senior NT CJ West (6-2, 317) — The Kent State transfer was a third-team All-MAC selection last season and considered Michigan out of the transfer portal. He’s posted 23 tackles, including 4 or loss and 2 sacks, this season. He’s added 10 pressures as a pass rusher.

• #99 – Redshirt senior DT James Carpenter (6-2, 288) — The James Madison transfer appeared in 40 games with 37 starts in five seasons with the Dukes. He has 22 tackles — including 8 for loss and 4 sacks — along with 23 pressures this season.

• #6 – Redshirt junior DE Mikail Kamara (6-1, 265) — The James Madison transfer was named second-team All-Sun Belt last season, totaling 52 tackles, 17.5 stops for loss and 6.5 sacks. He has 34 tackles this year, adding 14.5 for loss and 9.5 sacks. His 45 pressures lead the nation.

• #41 – Senior DE Lanell Carr Jr. (6-2, 246) — The West Virginia transfer is in his second season at Indiana. He played in only two games last year, before breaking out with 24 stops, 3.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks so far in 2024. He’s also contributed 23 pressures, with 5 in three different contests.

• #4 – Junior LB Aiden Fisher (6-1, 233) — The James Madison transfer was tabbed as third-team All-Sun Belt a year ago. He leads the team and ranks third in the Big Ten with 84 tackles in 2024. He’s made 3.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 3 quarterback hurries and 12 pressures.

• #2 – Senior LB Jailin Walker (6-1, 218) — The James Madison transfer was a two-time honorable mention All-Sun Belt selection (2022-23). He totaled 61 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks in 2023. He’s now second on the Hoosiers with 52 stops, including 3 for loss, and 5 pass breakups with a forced fumble.

• #12 – Redshirt senior NB Terry Jones Jr. (6-1, 200) — The Old Dominion transfer was named honorable mention All-Sun Belt in 2023, capping off his 40-game, 26-start, five-season career with his previous school. He’s registered 21 tackles, including 3 for loss and a sack, this season. He has a 70.3 PFF coverage grade, allowing 6 catches for 42 yards and no touchdowns on 11 targets and 111 coverage snaps. He played single-digit defensive snaps in four of the first six games but has seen 36-plus in each of the last three.

• #9 – Redshirt junior CB Jamier Johnson (5-11, 181) — The Texas transfer appeared in 17 clashes with one start from 2021-22, before joining the Hoosiers in 2023. He missed most of last season with an injury but has made an impact with 28 tackles and an interception in 2024. He has a 73.1 PFF coverage rating. He’s given up 28 catches for 273 yards and 2 touchdowns on 43 targets.

• #5 – Sophomore CB D’Angelo Ponds (5-9, 170) — The James Madison transfer was a freshman All-American per Football Writers Association of America last season, also earning second-team All-Sun Belt recognition. He’s racked up 44 tackles, including 3.5 for loss, 5 pass breakups and 2 interceptions with the Hoosiers. His 85.9 PFF coverage grade ranks 12th nationally among cornerbacks with 100-plus coverage snaps. He’s allowed 24 catches for 186 yards and 1 touchdown on 44 targets.

• #25 – Sophomore S Amare Ferrell (6-2, 200) — Was one of seven true freshmen to make game appearances for Indiana in 2023. He’s tallied 36 tackles, including 2 for loss and a sack, a team-high 4 interceptions and 1 pass breakup. He has a 75.7 overall PFF rating and has given up 15 catches for 111 yards and no touchdowns on 23 targets.

• #1 – Senior S Shawn Asbury II (5-10, 199) — The Old Dominion transfer (2022-23) began his career at Boston College in 2021 and is on his third school. The 2023 honorable mention All-Sun Belt honoree is third on the Hoosiers with 51 tackles this season. He’s added 3.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 1 interception and 2 pass breakups. He’s allowed 17 receptions for 154 yards and 1 touchdown on 23 targets.

Indiana specialists

• #39 – Redshirt freshman K Nicolas Radicic (5-11, 193) — Made 2 extra points and a 21-yard field goal last season, maintaining his redshirt, and is a perfect 6-of-6 on field goals with a 37-yard long in 2023. The Hoosiers are tied 127th nationally with only 6 field goal attempts.

• #94 – Senior P James Evans (6-1, 217) — The Auckland, New Zealand, native and former rugby player was named third-team All-Big Ten in 2023. He’s averaging 44.3 yards per punt with a 58-yard long this season. He’s pinned opponents inside their own 20-yard line 6 times. He’s tied for 15th of 25 Big Ten players who have attempted at least 1 punt this season with a 3.82-second average hangtime.

• #18 – Graduate KR Solomon Vanhorse (5-8, 185) — The James Madison transfer running back is averaging 21 yards per return with a 32-yard long on 4 attempts.

• #4 – Senior PR Myles Price (5-9, 183) — The wideout has returned 18 punts with a 12.8-yard average (fourth in the Big Ten) and 65-yard long.

Indiana’s offense led by Kurtis Rourke

Indiana ranks second in the country with 46.6 points per game and is top 30 in total (eighth), passing (19th) and rushing offense (30th). Rourke is tied for second nationally with a 73.3 completion percentage and 10.5 yards-per-attempt average, and he’s thrown only 3 interceptions compared to 19 touchdown passes.

“It’s efficiency, without a doubt,” Osterman said of what’s most impressive about the Indiana offense. “Rourke has obviously been the most important player for IU’s offense, as quarterbacks often are. But the Hoosiers’ ability to pivot between a lot of different themes offensively — inside run, RPO, the screen game, back shoulder 1 on 1s — has spread the load so evenly there’s not really any one key to stopping this group.

“As a result, they’re among the best teams in the country in red zone and third-down situations, and they have one of the most productive offenses in America, but not by gimmicks or something unreliable like hitting big explosive plays. They’ve proven they can sustain offensive success within a game running the ball, throwing the ball, through RPOs, grabbing chunk plays, really anything. It’s hard to knock this offense out of rhythm.”

Indiana’s defense can get after the passer

Osterman said that Indiana’s strength on defense is the pass rush. The Hoosiers are fourth in the country with 31 sacks, averaging 3.4 per game. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Hoosiers’ defense creates pressure on 34.9 percent of passing downs, good for 19th in the country. Per PFF, the unit has seven players with 10-plus pressures, led by Kamara’s 45.

“Indiana is among the most disruptive defenses in the country and probably the best in the Big Ten, which it leads in both sacks and tackles for loss,” Osterman pointed out. “The Hoosiers’ ability to sustain that pressure rushing just four a lot of the time has freed its linebackers up as run stoppers and taken pressure off a secondary that probably needed a little more time to settle into the season because of youth and shifting roles but has gotten a lot better lately.”

Indiana ranks tied for 10th in the FBS with 5.9 yards allowed per pass, but the Hoosiers have only faced two teams who rank better than 63rd in passing offense.

“The front six is probably still stronger than the back five, and we haven’t really seen Indiana have to test its depth if one of its key defensive contributors gets hurt (Jailin Walker missing the second half at Northwestern aside),” Osterman said. “But that group has gone from steady and solid to really productive as the season’s worn on.”

Keys for the Indiana Hoosiers

Michigan has won only one game this season when trailing after one quarter. The Wolverines are 1-3 in those situations and 4-0 when leading. They’re 0-1 when tied up after 15 minutes (Oregon).

With an anemic offense, the Maize and Blue just aren’t built to play from behind, so a fast start in front of a sell-out crowd would go a long way for the Hoosiers.

“Making Michigan chase on the scoreboard,” Osterman said of a key to victory. “Indiana’s been very good at getting on the board in the first quarter, the Michigan State game aside, and putting pressure on opponents to press offensively, throw more than they’d like and generally rush decisions that create opportunities to lean into that pass rush.

“Obviously, Michigan has struggled at times offensively this season. If IU can get points up early and make the Wolverines feel like they’ve got to take some risks to keep pace, that’s when I think the windows open for the Hoosiers to make some key plays.”

Osterman’s final score prediction

“I doubt IU will steamroll Michigan the way it did Michigan State or Nebraska,” Osterman began. “But Indiana also has a legitimately very good defense, particularly against the run and rushing the passer. If the Hoosiers break in front early, and force Michigan to chase, that plays directly into Indiana’s hands. The Hoosiers don’t enjoy a banner day offensively but they do cover.”

Prediction: Indiana 27, Michigan 10