Preview and prediction: Michigan vs. Purdue

Michigan Wolverines basketball is set to host Purdue Thursday night at Crisler Center.

The Wolverines have won five of their last seven games, but fell at Purdue just five days ago. The Boilermakers are ranked No. 3 in the land and winners of six straight contests, including a big victory over Illinois Tuesday.

Here is everything you need to know before tip-off, including a breakdown of each key player, analysis on the matchup, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan vs. Purdue

Date: Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022

Time: 9:01 p.m. ET

Venue: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)

Channel: ESPN

On The Call: Brian Custer (play-by-play) and Jon Crispin (color)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Purdue -3.5, over/under 144.5

Kenpom Prediction: Purdue 79, Michigan 74

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (15-6 ATS): Purdue 81, Michigan 73

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 9.2 points, 3.9 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game, while shooting 45.6 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from long range.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain generates 11.9 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists per outing, while shooting 42.6 percent overall and 37.6 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 10.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.4 assists per clash, while shooting 40 percent from the field and 35 percent from long range.

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — Averaging 8.4 points and 6.1 rebounds per tilt … Made 65-of-120 shot attempts (54.2 percent) and is 34-of-55 from the free throw line.

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 18.1 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, with 44 assists … Shooting 57.9 percent from the field and has made 12 of his 33 three-point attempts … His 63.3 two-point field goal percentage ranks top 160 nationally.

Michigan Key Bench Contributors

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — The East Lansing native is notching 4.5 points and 2.2 boards per outing, while shooting 42.6 percent from the field and 9-of-25 from three-point range (36 percent).

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 15.8 minutes per contest at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions, while averaging 4.7 points and 2.7 rebounds, and shooting 44.7 percent from the field and 35.3 percent from long range.

• #10 – Freshman guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — Averaging 11.3 minutes per appearance … Posts 2.9 points, 1.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists per outing and shoots 38.8 percent from the field … Is 2-of-13 from long range.

Purdue Projected Starters

• #23 – Sophomore guard Jaden Ivey (6-4, 195) — The USA Basketball star is leading the Boilermakers with 17.7 points per game, while adding 5.1 rebounds and 3.3 assists … Shoots 48.4 percent from the field and 41.1 percent from beyond the three-point arc … Has scored over 20 points in each of his last four games … Great in transition, generating 1.141 points per play, as a spot-up player (one PPP) and the pick-and-roll ball handler (1.04 PPP, running 60.1 percent of the team’s ball screens).

• #11 – Junior guard Isaiah Thompson (6-1, 160) — Averages 5.5 points and 1.1 rebounds per game, while connecting on 42.3 percent of his overall looks and 41.6 percent of his three-point attempts … Used as a spot-up shooter, where he produces 1.321 points per possession (97th percentile nationally), and 79.5 percent of his field goal attempts are jump shots.

• #55 – Senior guard Sasha Stefanovic (6-5, 205) — Puts up 11.9 points and 2.6 rebounds per contest, while hitting 43.8 percent of his shots from the field and 40.9 percent of his triple tries (ranks 172nd in the sport and his 36.9 percent three-point shooting clip during Big Ten play slots 23rd in the league) … 85.4 percent of his field goal attempts are jump shots — and he makes those at a 39.3-percent clip … Moves around a lot off the ball and comes off screens.

• #0 – Sophomore forward Mason Gillis (6-6, 230) — The power forward is averaging 7.1 points and 4.3 rebounds per outing, while shooting 56.1 percent from the field and 50.9 percent from long range (27-of-53) … Used as a spot-up shooter and cutter, and 13.4 percent of his points have come on put-backs, with his 7.3 offensive rebounding percentage during conference play ranking 23rd in the league.

• #15 – Sophomore center Zach Edey (7-4, 295) — A teammate of Houstan with Team Canada, he’s posting 14.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game in just 18.8 minutes of action … Shoots 68.1 percent from the field and hasn’t attempted a three-pointer (27th in the Big Ten with a 68.1 two-point field goal percentage in league play) … Rebounds 17.2 percent of Purdue’s missed shots when he’s on the floor, and 19.5 percent of his points come on put-backs … Generates 1.201 points per play on post-ups (94th percentile in the country).

Key Bench Players

• #50 – Senior forward Trevion Williams (6-10, 255) — Splits time with Edey, and the two are just about never on the floor together … Posts 12.3 points and 8.1 rebounds per clash, while shooting 56 percent overall … He’s made four of his 10 three-point attempts on the season … Generates 0.995 points per post-up (71st percentile nationally) and 1.28 PPP on isolations (96th).

• #2 – Senior guard Eric Hunter (6-4, 175) — Registers 5.3 points and 1.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 47.4 percent overall and 42.9 percent from long range (18-of-42).

• #3 – Freshman forward Caleb Furst (6-10, 230) — Plays 16.6 minutes per game at the ‘4’ spot … Produces 4.7 points and four rebounds per clash, while connecting on 58.2 percent from the field and 8-of-18 from beyond the arc.

Matchup Breakdown

• Michigan and Purdue played just five days ago in West Lafayette, of course. The Wolverines lost, 82-76, and showed plenty of resolve by fighting back from multiple double-digit deficits. Staying in the same was mostly due to Michigan’s offense, which ripped off 1.17 points per possession. The story continues to be about the struggling defense, though it’s hard for anyone to hang in there with Purdue, the nation’s most efficient offense according to Kenpom.

• The Boilermakers rank top 10 in effective field goal percentage (59), offensive rebounding percentage (36.8), three-point field goal percentage (41.1) and two-point field goal percentage (57.3). Big men Zach Edey and Trevion Williams are extremely hard to stop on the block, and even if the opposition does force a pass out to the perimeter, Purdue has elite three-point shooters ready to fire from deep. The Boilermakers have seven trigger men that have attempted more than 15 triples with a three-point field goal percentage better than 40, led by volume shooters Jaden Ivey and Sasha Stefanovic.

• Speaking of Ivey … he scored 23 points against Michigan despite not making a three-pointer on six attempts. He was 8-of-12 shooting from inside the arc and was nearly impossible for Michigan to stay in front of. His size, length and quickness gave the Wolverines a lot of trouble in ball-screen actions and got down hill at ease. As a whole, Purdue scored 23 points on ball screens and isolations. Key No. 1 for the Michigan defense is to stop penetration into the lane. Slowing down Edey and Williams, of course, is important too (and extremely difficult), both in the post and as rollers on pick-and-roll action.

• As noted, Michigan was able to stay in last Saturday’s game because of its offense. Purdue is not a great defensive squad, ranking 105th nationally in adjusted efficiency. Opponents shoot 33.6 percent from three-point range and 48.6 percent on twos. They’re strong on the glass, slotting 17th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage (23.0) but are pretty average other than that.

Michigan scored 22 points on ball screens last time around, an area in which Purdue has struggled, ranking in the 22nd percentile in the nation while yielding 0.896 points per play. Michigan center Hunter Dickinson got free on some pick-and-pops, extending Edey and the Boilermakers’ other post defenders to the three-point line, exposing their lack of mobility. If Michigan is to pull off this upset, we’d imagine it would have to have some success doing the same thing.