Ranking Michigan football's 2024 opponents by SP+ rating

The Michigan Wolverines will play one of the most difficult schedules in the country in 2024 as they attempt to defend their College Football Playoff National Championship crown. But it might be worth it to build a resume to get into the 12-team CFP field that debuts this year.

It is the dawn of a new era in the sport with the expanded playoff and four new programs joining the Big Ten in USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon. The Wolverines will see three of those schools this year in addition to a non-conference bout with Texas.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric has Michigan as the No. 5 team in the country heading into the new season, but facing off against the second (Ohio State), third (Oregon) and fourth-ranked (Texas) teams in the land. Several have criticized U-M’s schedule over the last few years, but water is finding its level this time around.

What exactly is SP+, though? Connelly builds his rankings through returning production, recruiting rankings and recent history, which spits out the projected ranking.

“t’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” Connelly writes. “It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”

Here’s a look at how U-M’s full 2024 schedule of opponents ranks from easiest to hardest:

Nov. 9 at Indiana (90th)

The Hoosiers are led by first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, who comes over after five seasons coaching at James Madison. Indiana is known at times for putting a scare into Michigan, but it will be an uphill battle for the first-year head coach, who is projected to have one of the worst teams in the Big Ten next season.

Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (88th)

The Red Wolves of the Sun Belt conference come into Ann Arbor the week after the Texas game and are coached by Butch Jones, formerly of Central Michigan, Cincinnati and Tennessee. Arkansas State is coming off of a 6-7 season and Jones is 11-26 in his three-year stretch there.

Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (79th)

MSU’s first season under head coach Jonathan Smith projects to be a rough one, coming in as one of the easier projected opponents on the schedule. Given that he is still in the process of picking up the pieces of the Mel Tucker era, it might be some time before the rivalry is competitive again.

Oct. 19 at Illinois (62nd)

Michigan hits the road to take on Bret Bielema and the Illini in mid-October in a game that could be of the trap variety. Bielema teams always play physical and stout defensively, so it could be a spot for shaking off some rust coming off a bye week and a week ahead of the rivalry tilt with MSU.

Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (55th)

David Braun had one of the best coaching jobs in the country last season, taking a team that was projected to finish at the bottom of the Big Ten standings to an eight-win season after the dismissal of Pat Fitzgerald in the summer. We will have to see if the Wildcats have any staying power in the week before The Game at Ohio State.

Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (54th)

The Wolverines have one of their more difficult season openers in recent memory with the Bulldogs coming to town on the final Saturday of August. Fresno State has won 9 or more games in four of Jeff Tedford’s five seasons and have 19 wins over the last two years.

Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (41st)

Head coach P.J. Fleck is 0-3 against Michigan with losses in 2017 (33-10 in Ann Arbor), 2020 (49-24 in Minneapolis) and 2023 (52-10 in Minneapolis).

Oct. 5 at Washington (30th)

A rematch of the national title game comes with both programs looking extremely different. Former Michigan assistant Jedd Fisch is Washington’s new head coach after Kalen DeBoer departed for Alabama. On the other side, Sherrone Moore steps into the big chair for Jim Harbaugh. It is Michigan’s first trip to Seattle since 2001, where it lost 23-18. The Wolverines have a three-game win streak in the series, headlined by a 34-13 win in the CFP title game in Houston in January.

Sept. 21 vs. USC (23rd)

Michigan’s Big Ten opener serves as USC’s official welcome to the Big Ten Conference. The Trojans have been putrid defensively under head coach Lincoln Riley but could be a load to handle offensively. This should be a good test for both teams to establish their spot in the early-season pecking order.

Sept. 7 vs. Texas (4th)

If things had gone differently, this very well could have been a national title game rematch. The showdown of two CFP teams from last season is about as good a matchup as it gets in Week 2 of the season. Quinn Ewers returns at quarterback for a Texas team that will push for a national title.

Nov. 2. vs Oregon (3rd)

Head coach Dan Lanning has Oregon rolling heading into the Big Ten, and this is another one of those November pecking-order games Michigan has gotten used to. This game could determine a spot in the Big Ten Championship game with the top two teams in the conference duking it out in December with divisions evaporated.

Nov. 30 at Ohio State (2nd)

One of the great rivalries in all of sports may not be a one-off game anymore. In the new college football landscape, there could easily be a rematch the following week in Indianapolis. If they avoid that, they might meet in a 12-team playoff. But OSU has bet everything on this season and snapping a three-game losing streak to Michigan. U-M has not won two in a row since victories in 1988 and 1990.