Ranking Michigan football's 2023 games from hardest to easiest

Michigan Wolverines football has a strength of schedule ranked No. 21 nationally and sixth in the Big Ten this season. Here, we rank each of the 12 regular-season games from hardest to easiest.

12. Sept 16 vs. Bowling Green, 7:30 p.m. ET

Bright lights, but not necessarily a big stage. The primetime nature of Michigan’s game against Bowling Green will give fans the opportunity to tailgate longer on what should be a beautiful September day, but the Wolverines are expected to roll against Bowling Green head coach Scot Loeffler — a former Michigan quarterback — and his Falcons.

Michigan has played three games against MAC opponents under head coach Jim Harbaugh, winning by an average of 44.7 points per outing. Bowling Green had a resurgent season a year ago after winning just 12 of its previous 53 games, but the Falcons have a lot to replace. The Wolverines, too, will be a couple games into the season when the two teams meet, ready to ramp things up for the Big Ten season ahead, and it’s hard to imagine they fall victim to the upset-minded Falcons.

RELATED: Ranking Michigan football’s 2023 games by difficulty: No. 12, Bowling Green

11. Sept. 9 vs. UNLV, 3:30 p.m. ET

UNLV returns starting quarterback Doug Brumfield, a great athlete who averaged 7.5 yards per pass and totaled 261 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns, last season. The defense was porous a year ago, and while head coach Barry Odom is a defensive-minded coach, it’ll take some time to yield better results in the Mountain West, let alone against Michigan.

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10. Sept. 2 vs. East Carolina, noon ET

You only get one chance to make a first impression, and Michigan will look to make a great one in the season-opener against the Pirates. The Wolverines are already projected by Las Vegas to win by over 30 points, even with ECU having made a bowl game last season.

The Pirates’ offense was fantastic — a reason why ECU ranks ahead of Michigan’s other non-conference foes — but it lost most of its key pieces. Frankly, UNLV and Bowling Green don’t have one thing that should scare Michigan. And while the Wolverines won’t be afraid of ECU — at all — their offense, should some players step into bigger roles smoothly, as expected, is formidable for a Group of Five unit.

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9. Oct 14 vs. Indiana, TBA

Indiana has completely fallen off after beating Michigan and competing for the Big Ten title in 2020. The Hoosiers are 6-18 overall and 2-16 in the Big Ten since then.

This has all the makings of a ho-hum October victory where the main goal beyond winning by three-plus scores is to stay healthy ahead of the following week’s clash at in-state rival Michigan State. Head coach Tom Allen is on the hot seat, and it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which he survives.

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8. Sept. 23 vs. Rutgers, noon ET

Rutgers’ defense gave Michigan hell in 2021, with the Wolverines unable to move the ball in the second half. It feels like Schiano will have that type of group again. However, Michigan’s offense will be more dynamic than even it was two seasons ago, and the Scarlet Knights don’t have enough on offense to have us believe this one will be close.

The Wolverines better come ready in the Big Ten opener, though. They’ve won the last two conference openers by a combined 14 points, and the Scarlet Knights gave U-M a mini scare by leading at halftime in Piscataway last November.

RELATED: Ranking Michigan football’s 2023 games by difficulty: No. 8, Rutgers

7. Nov. 4 vs. Purdue, TBA

This is a rematch from last December’s Big Ten championship game, but Purdue is one of the teams in the conference that we expect to take a big step back under a new head coach in Ryan Walters and with most of its impact players having departed.

Plus, this one will be played in the friendly confines of The Big House. The Boilermakers are better than some teams the Wolverines will play on the road, but there are some challenging environments out there. Michigan hasn’t lost a home game with fans in the stands since November 2019. It’s a safe bet to say the Maize and Blue will likely win comfortably.

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6. Oct. 21 at Michigan State, TBA

Michigan State is projected by Las Vegas oddsmakers to win 5.5 games this fall, thanks to a challenging schedule, key defections to the transfer portal and burning questions in multiple areas. However, we have them as Michigan’s sixth-toughest game of the season.

Playing on the road and it being the Spartans’ biggest tilt of the season are two reasons why this may not be a cakewalk.

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5. Nov. 18 at Maryland, TBA

There’s just something dangerous about a team with an experienced quarterback and playmakers all over the field. That’s what Maryland has with signal-caller Taulia Tagovailoa and Co. And the Terrapins have actually had some success against the Wolverines the last two seasons, to different degrees. They ran for 181 yards and 128 yards in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and passed for 269 yards in last year’s meeting. Michigan came up with some big plays in the fourth quarter — running back Blake Corum was phenomenal — but that was a stressful one for the Maize and Blue faithful.

This game is also sandwiched in between Michigan’s two biggest games of the season — at Penn State and against Ohio State. The Wolverines took care of business in this same spot in 2021, winning 59-18, but this will be a challenge.

RELATED: Ranking Michigan football’s 2023 games by difficulty: No. 5, Maryland

4. Sept. 30 at Nebraska, TBA

This may seem high for a team with so many question marks. However, new head coach Matt Rhule has injected life into this program, and he masterfully led a turnaround at Baylor, navigating an impossible situation given how Art Briles left things.

With that life will come a raucous environment, as we saw in 2021, when Michigan survived with a 32-29 win during its Big Ten championship run. At this point in the season, the Cornhuskers should still have belief. That 2021 was a great Michigan team that barely beat a 3-9 Nebraska squad. Something similar can happen again, especially if this one is at night.

RELATED: Ranking Michigan football’s 2023 games by difficulty: No. 4, Nebraska

3. Oct. 7 at Minnesota, TBA

In terms of atmosphere, this should be a great one. Early on in the season, the Gophers should be right in the thick of the Big Ten West race with the rest of the season ahead. We’ve seen how electric Huntington Bank Stadium can get (it was incredible for the Penn State game in 2019, with the 31-26 win being the biggest moment of the Fleck era to date).

Minnesota has to replace a lot, but head coach P.J. Fleck has added some nice pieces through the transfer portal. He’s also built his teams from the line of scrimmage out — similar to Michigan — and should be able to reload.

There’s a significant drop-off between Michigan’s two most challenging games and the rest of the slate. Then there’s a clump with Minnesota, Nebraska and Maryland. This has the slight edge over those other two.

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2. Nov. 11 at Penn State, noon ET

While we expect Penn State to contend for the Big Ten East and potentially knock off one of Michigan or Ohio State, it’s hard to say the clash with the Buckeyes won’t be the most difficult, given their level of talent, even with that one being played at The Big House. It also helps that this one will be played at noon at Beaver Stadium as opposed to primetime.

Penn State is easily in that top-two, though. This feels like a year in which Franklin and Co. have been building toward. Allar could take the offense to the next level (and he’ll be nine starts in when he takes the field against Michigan), and a lot of other key pieces are old and experienced.

RELATED: Ranking Michigan football’s 2023 games by difficulty: No. 2, Penn State

1. Nov. 25 vs. Ohio State, noon ET

Ohio State will be gunning for revenge, and while Michigan will play host, the Buckeyes have talent up and down the roster — including 10 five-stars, more than the rest of the Big Ten combined (eight). Quarterback Kyle McCord won’t be a “new” starting quarterback anymore by Game 12 (like J.J. McCarthy was hardly one by the end of the year last season).

We still view Ohio State as the bigger threat in the Big Ten and national picture over Penn State, and the location of ‘The Game’ doesn’t change that.

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