Staff Predictions: Michigan football at Iowa

Michigan travels to Iowa City Saturday for the latest rock fight against the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. …

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That’s what we expect, anyway. These games simply aren’t fun. Kirk Ferentz’s teams are boring but opportunistic — like Top Gun‘s Ice Man, we’d say.

“It’s the way he flies — ice cold, no mistakes. He wears you down, you get bored, frustrated, do something stupid, and he’s got ya.“

That’s true for the defense, anyway. If you get too anxious, you make a mistake and defensive coordinator Phil Parker’s group pounces and takes advantage.

On offense, though, the Hawkeyes are so limited that you might be more concerned about Michigan defenders texting their girlfriends while quarterback Spencer Petras overthrows a 3-yard out after a two-step drop with four defenders bearing down on him.

That said — Iowa always seems to play over its head in games like these. Guys make plays they wouldn’t otherwise make. They hold their blocks a bit longer, and dig a little deeper. At the end of the day, they often find a way to pull out the latest “ugliest win you’ve ever seen” to send the fans in black and gold home happy.

The thought of this, of course, infuriates the Michigan fan who believes the Wolverines have way too many weapons to even be challenged by such an inferior team. And we get it. U-M has advantages here, especially in personnel.

However, for the “If they just spread ’em out and let them use their athletes, they’ll win going away!” crowd …

It just isn’t that simple, especially with a young quarterback against that defense in that environment. The last time we suggested as much (and were ridiculed for it) was 2016. And as much as we’ve all tried to forget it … well, we all remember it. The Hawkeyes pulled the upset on a last-second field goal.

We’d like to congratulate Doug Karsch for his staff picks win last week … but we can’t. We’ve had an objection and protest — our Clayton Sayfie astutely pointed out that Karsch often waits until the other picks are up to make his, at which point even he can do the math and figure out a pick that gives him the best chance to win.

For you Price is Right (or MSU) fans … it’s like waiting until the others have all bid and going for the $1 bid, or a buck over the highest.

So … the committee (I) has decided to temporarily suspend Karsch. As a result, there is no winner from last week’s picks (also a committee decision. If you got to win after someone else vacated … well, Michigan basketball would be the 2013 national champions).

This week’s champion gets to console John Borton when he finds out again that no amount of groveling or creative math is going to make him the winner.

It’s all about the numbers, JB. It’s all about the numbers.

The Picks:

CHRIS BALAS: Michigan should win this game. The Wolverines have more athletes, better players in the trenches and outstanding special teams. It’s going to come down to mistakes (not making any) and how mentally tough this group is. Last year’s team was outstanding in that area, pulling out key road wins at Nebraska and Penn State as a result.

We’ll go with this — but wouldn’t be all that surprised if the Hawkeyes pulled a low-scoring upset. Michigan 20, Iowa 13

CLAYTON SAYFIE: Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy will need to be more decisive — and make better decisions — against an Iowa defense that doesn’t just thrive off of mistakes but forces you to make a lot of them. Even if he struggles a bit, the Wolverines have plenty of weapons offensively, and the Iowa offense is nothing to be concerned about. Unless Michigan turns the ball over multiple times, which is possible, it’ll win by multiple scores. Michigan 28, Iowa 10

ANTHONY BROOME: If the first four weeks were a series of pop quizzes, the first true test of the season is upon us. Michigan heads to a historic house of Hawkeye horrors in Kinnick Stadium, a place where top-five teams go to die. Iowa — somehow, someway — has a 5-1 record in its last 6 games against top-five ranked opponents with the Wolverines coming to town this weekend. U-M always inherently has a giant target on its back, but this one might be even larger. Michigan dismantled Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten title game, so revenge will be on the minds of the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines were a bit sloppy last week and now face a team that will pounce on a mistake, even if you just look at them the wrong way.

On paper, it is hard to find an area where the Hawkeyes have an advantage, but that is the mystique of Kinnick Stadium. They have a way of getting you into a rock fight unlike any other team in the conference. Limiting turnovers is critical, but Iowa typically turns them into points. In fact, their defense has a higher scoring output than their offense this season. Bring the street fight weapon of your choice, take care of your business and get out of there. If last week was a character-type win, this week will tell us what Michigan is all about. J.J. McCarthy, let’s see what you’ve learned. Michigan 23, Iowa 14

JOHN BORTON: Iowa is horrible. You all need to stop being scared of your own shadow. C’mon, Michigan wins this thing by 30, at least. Bunch of chickens …

All statements made by those who haven’t spent 30 seconds in Kinnick Stadium on a game day, especially with Michigan in town. The Wolverines haven’t won at Kinnick since 2005, and that was by three in overtime.

J.J. McCarthy & Co. break that streak on Saturday. But it won’t be nearly as easy as many expect, despite the Hawkeyes featuring an offense as uninspiring as a two-hour lecture on the wonders of lima beans. Michigan 27, Iowa 17 

DOUG SKENE: Michigan faces its most difficult test of the season by far. Look for Iowa to fill the front-side gaps fast when Michigan runs the power running offense. The best answer to a hostile environment like Iowa’s is a hostile offensive line. The Michigan O-Line must have its best game of the year to control the trenches and the game.

Michigan’s defense must not allow the struggling Iowa offense to get momentum. It has to keep the Hawkeyes’ rushing total to less than 100 yards.

U-M has not won at Iowa in 17 years. It’s time to change that. Michigan 20, Iowa 14

DOUG KARSCH: (Suspended in disgrace.)