Staff Predictions: Michigan football vs. Penn State

Penn State has had its ups and downs under head coach James Franklin, but a trio of 11-win seasons and some wins over Michigan have given him some job security. That was evident when he went 11-11 in his last 22 games heading into this season. Rather than fire him or put him on notice, his PSU bosses threw more money at him … kind of like sinking cash into a car you’ve already spent thousands on, only to have something else go wrong. 

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You hope — pray — if you keep throwing money at it … well, this time is the fix. 

Franklin can recruit, and in the day and age of NIL and really having to sell, a used car salesman type might be a good bet. That appears to be what they’re banking on in Happy Valley, where PSU has won a grand total of 4 Big Ten titles in 29 years … and one of those came in 2016 when they were the third-best team in their division. 

To this day, nobody’s really sure how that happened.

But we fondly remember the days when the Penn State fan base predicted dominance after joining the conference, only to realize years later that the Big Ten didn’t include Temple, East Carolina, Boston College, etc. 

Imagine their joy, though, when Rutgers joined the conference in 2014. We’ve heard, but can’t confirm, that this was part of a Penn State plot to soften the schedule and bring back the “old” rivalries in an attempt to recapture past glory. But as former Michigan tackle Jon Jansen allegedly said after stepping off the bus in State College in 1997 to hundreds of fans yelling and screaming in their faces — “We’re not Temple.” Today, he might add, “and we’re not Rutgers, either.”

Barring something unforeseen, this PSU team isn’t going to win Big Ten title No. 5. Ohio State is the heavy favorite, of course, though the Nittany Lions get the Buckeyes in Happy Valley. 

Can they win at Michigan, though, to keep the dream alive?

It’s possible. We’ll find out more about what both of these teams are made of come Saturday. 

Only one of us picked Indiana to beat the spread last Saturday. It wasn’t John Borton. Somehow, though, he wins staff picks for the second week in a row … otherwise, there might well be a mutiny here. 

This week’s winner receives a copy of the Detroit Lions preseason Hard Knocks show on DVD — the highlight of the season for their fans, other than the upcoming April NFL Draft — and some leftover sticky buns we brought back with us from Happy Valley on the 1999 trip, when Tom Brady broke PSU fans’ hearts in the fourth quarter. 

The picks: 

CHRIS BALAS: It’s hard to know how good this Michigan team is, having yet to play a good football team. The same can be said for Penn State, though. 

One thing we do know — Sean Clifford is still the PSU quarterback. And like the Nittany Lions fans, we’re not sure if that’s good or bad. 

If Michigan protects the ball, it wins somewhat comfortably. Michigan 27, Penn State 18

JOHN BORTON: It’s 6-0 facing 5-0, No. 5 versus No. 10, wings versus Greek yogurt. (I hate Greek yogurt). Something has to give.

It says here, in the end, the giving will involve Penn State’s defensive front yielding to a relentless Michigan attack. It won’t be easy, but in the end it will be the Wolverines at 7-0, looking at a bye, an overdue deep fry, and the inevitable march to the lair of the Buckeye. Michigan 27, Penn State 20

CLAYTON SAYFIE: Penn State is elite against both the run and the pass, serving as the biggest challenge for the Michigan offense to this point. The game may well be determined based on whether or not Corum is successful on the ground. That would open up the rest of the offense and not put McCarthy in tough situations such as third and long. 

On the other side, it’s hard to believe Sean Clifford is making his fourth career start against the Maize and Blue. Penn State finally has a balanced attack with two emerging running backs, and that’ll make the Nittany Lions tough to stop. Michigan should be up to the test, though. Pressure Clifford and limit big plays — and you should win this matchup.

I think Michigan has the edge in two important categories: Its strong offensive line and home-field advantage. Those will help push them over the top in a game that will come down to the wire. Michigan 24, Penn State 20

ANTHONY BROOME: The regular season is half over, but things are just starting to kick into high gear. Trips to Iowa and Indiana tested the Wolverines in a variety of ways and now they get to return to Ann Arbor for some home cooking. However, it comes with a matchup with the toughest team they have seen to date this year. Penn State is back in Big Ten East contention and this serves as one of those pecking-order games heading into a stretch run. PSU QB Sean Clifford has been in college for two presidential terms and has seen just about everything one can under center. He is a poised, tough leader that is helming a fairly balanced offensive attack, led by a revamped run game. It seems unlikely he will be rattled by whatever atmosphere Saturday provides.

But this Michigan team feels like it has another gear to find. It has not played a full 60-minute football game to truly hang its hat on yet. That changes on Saturday. I think a big moment is going to bring out something special in this group, namely at quarterback with J.J. McCarthy. Michigan was up against the wall last week and decided to put the ball in his hands in the second half at Indiana. With Penn State sporting one of the toughest run defenses in college football, the opportunity is on the table for a McCarthy statement game. Look for Blake Corum to have his first “Heisman Moment,” too. Michigan 38, Penn State 24

DOUG SKENE: This matchup looks to be Michigan’s greatest challenge of the season and perhaps their last big challenge before their end of season matchup in Ohio.  Penn State has the athletes and an emerging running game that will look to grind out the UM defensive line.  

Michigan’s offensive line and tight ends learned at Indiana last week that you still have to come off the ball and move someone to make the base running game go. 

I look for PSU to load up the box and make J.J. McCarthy make the throws to prove he can do it. Michigan’s offensive line must have its best day yet. Michigan 27, Penn State 21