Staff Predictions: Michigan football vs. Alabama in the Rose Bowl

Michigan heads to the College Football Playoff for the third straight year, this time against Alabama in the Rose Bowl. The Wolverines are undefeated at 13-0, handled Ohio State for the third time in a row (although this one was finally pretty close, unlike the last two) … and yet few seem to be giving them a chance to beat the SEC champions. 

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And we get it. As Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter noted, the CFP has been the “Alabama Invitational.” When Nick Saban teams get to the semifinal, they generally win. They’ve recruited as well as anyone over the last several years, have elite athletes at just about every position, etc., etc. 

Somehow, though, Michigan is a one-point favorite … and that’s because the Wolverines are a damn good football team, too. They’ve overcome unbelievable adversity, including NCAA investigations, being without head coach Jim Harbaugh for 6 games this season, the Big Ten taking unprecedented action against Harbaugh during the year — and yet, here they are. 

We’ve said it many times — this is a different challenge than the Wolverines have faced this year. There are some bad matchups for them, and quarterback Jalen Milroe is unlike anyone Michigan has faced at his position this season. The secondary is outstanding, the lines are massive (especially the offensive line). Defensive lineman Kenneth Grant noted they are “more physical” than Ohio State in praising them after watching the film … and he’s seen it up close. 

But — the Wolverines plan on showing up, and it’s past time they played their best game in the postseason. They’ve rested their bodies, should be healthier than they have been since September, and have been pointing to this one for the last year. We’ll see if they’re ready. 

Congratulations to Clayton Sayfie, who picked a 31-25 Michigan win over Ohio State to capture the victory in our last segment. This week’s winner gets a first-class plane ticket to cover the team in the National Championship Game in Houston.*

* Can’t be paired with any other offer. Other conditions apply, including a Michigan win. “First class” can be defined in different ways.

This week’s picks: 

CHRIS BALAS: Thirteen games — 13 wins. That’s the same for all of us this year, a group of “homers” (as some might say) who didn’t pick Michigan to lose in any game this year. That’s unprecedented, and yet — we’re all undefeated. That will change this week … and here’s hoping someone else wins. 

No, this isn’t vintage ‘Bama, but the matchups favor the Crimson Tide. Alabama 27, Michigan 20

JOHN BORTON: This is a bit of a bizarre situation. The No. 1, 13-0, favored team is, well, sort of not favored in a whole lot of buzz. It’s like yeah, well, Michigan’s really good, but … (hushed voice) Bama is going to ROLL them. That won’t happen, but this is a toss-up, at best. No, this isn’t Georgia, 2021. But the Crimson Tide still features a host of superb athletes and they’ve gotten better together throughout the year. For a team with national championship goals and a fantastic season so far, it’s time to put up … or go home. Michigan 28, Alabama 24

CLAYTON SAYFIE: Like Vegas and most people out there, I think this will be a very close game, perhaps one that has some stretches where both defenses are in control. Many CFP games or close contests in general come down to which quarterback plays better, and I have the sense that McCarthy is going to have a big game. He watched Georgia and TCU celebrate with confetti showers on New Year’s Eve the last two years. This time, it’ll be a smiling McCarthy on stage with his Wolverines on New Year’s Day. Michigan 28, Alabama 21

ANTHONY BROOME: College football’s most picturesque stadium will be filled by two of its most iconic brands with a trip to the national title game on the line. It does not get any bigger than this as far as Michigan is concerned. This game is why everyone decided to run it back one more time, and what better opponent to test how far you’ve come than Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide? Bama isn’t quite what they have been in terms of having that gear that separates them from the rest of the pack, but what they do feature is an elite pass rush, a pair of first-round talents at cornerback and a tough, elusive quarterback in Jalen Milroe. 

Michigan may still have the better quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, but they’re going to need his best and a banner day from the running backs and tight ends. Jesse Minter’s defense will travel and has played its best football away from Ann Arbor, and I expect that to continue. It’s all on the Michigan offense staying creative and throwing the Tide off balance after a month to prepare.

Saban’s postseason success vs. Jim Harbaugh’s lack of it is the most jarring juxtaposition, though, and it’s hard to pick against it. Alabama 24, Michigan 21

DOUG SKENE: Jim Harbaugh’s postseason record outside of Big Ten championship games is not good.  We know how poorly the last two playoff semifinal games have gone for Michigan. For this Rose Bowl to turn out well for Michigan a few players are going to have to play the best of their career. Both offensive tackles, our wide receivers and J.J. McCarthy are all going to have to play their very best. Interior DTs must protect Junior Colson and cause a shallow pocket for Bama’s QB.  

Michigan’s defense must put a fence up around Milroe and make him stay in the pocket and try to make the throws. Michigan can absolutely win this game if it plays clean and gets J.J. going early with confidence. Nick Saban with multiple weeks to prepare is a challenge for sure. Michigan 31, Alabama 28