Preview and prediction: Michigan vs. Tennessee in the NCAA Tournament

INDIANAPOLIS — No. 11 seed Michigan Wolverines basketball will do battle with No. 3 seed Tennessee Saturday evening at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Led by head man Rick Barnes, Tennessee has won 13 of its last 14 games, losing just once since Jan. 29. During that stretch, it’s beaten Kentucky twice and Auburn and Arkansas once and won the SEC Tournament. Head coach Juwan Howard and Michigan have been inconsistent, in contrast, alternating wins and losses each of the last 11 outings.

Below is everything you need to know before tip, including a breakdown of each key player, analysis on the matchup, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan vs. Tennessee

Date: Saturday, March 19

Time: 5:15 p.m. ET

Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Ind.)

Channel: CBS

On The Call: Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Jim Spanarkel (color) and Jamie Erdahl (sideline)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Tennessee -6, over/under 135.5

Kenpom Prediction: Tennessee 71, Michigan 65

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (19-13 ATS): See below

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — Is a “game-time decision,” per Howard, after missing last game in concussion protocol … The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 10.7 points, 4.6 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 46.4 percent from the field and 33.8 percent from long range.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain generates 12.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists per outing, while shooting 43.9 percent overall and 38.6 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 10.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists per clash, while shooting 39.1 percent from the field and 36.6 percent from long range … Michigan is 10-1 when he scores 13 or more points.

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — The Paris native is averaging nine points and six rebounds per tilt … Makes 54.8 percent of his overall shot attempts and is 48-of-77 from the free throw line (62.3 percent).

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The second-team All-Big Ten standout is leading the team with 18.4 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game … Shooting 56.9 percent from the field and has made 18 of his 62 three-point attempts (29 percent).

Key Bench Contributors

• #10 – Freshman guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — Averaging 10.3 minutes per appearance … Posts 2.9 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.4 assists per outing and shoots 44 percent from the field … Is 3-of-17 from long range … Made his first career start against Colorado State and posted 14 points, six rebounds and two assists.

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 14.7 minutes per contest at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions, while averaging 4.6 points and 2.3 rebounds, and shooting 45.5 percent from the field and 38.3 percent from long range.

• #2 – Freshman guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 175) — Registers 3.1 points and 1.2 rebounds per game at the ‘2’ and ‘3’ positions, and shoots 39 percent overall and just 22.9 percent from three-point range.

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — The East Lansing native is notching 3.6 points and 2.1 boards per outing, while shooting 38.5 percent from the field and 10-of-32 from three-point range (31.3 percent).

Tennessee Projected Starters

• #1 – Freshman guard Kennedy Chandler (6-0, 171) — The five-star former Michigan target was tabbed as second team All-SEC … Averages 13.8 points and 4.8 assists per outing, while shooting 46.4 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from long range … Run s 57.5 percent of Tennessee’s ball screens, producing 0.941 points per possession (74th percentile nationally) … Also plays off the ball and is used as a spot-up shooter.

• #3 – Junior guard Santiago Vescovi (6-3, 191) — The Uruguay native registers 13.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists per contest … Connects on 41.6 percent of his overall field goals and 40.7 percent of his triple tries … Led the SEC with a 44.5-percent three-point shooting clip during conference play … 36th in the country with 2.88 made threes per game … Attempted 248 threes and just 96 twos this year … Went 6-of-8 from long range against Longwood … Spots up and runs around screens … Defense also has to be aware of him in transition, where he’s shooting a 52.2 effective field goal percentage.

• #30 – Junior guard Josiah Jordan-James (6-6, 214) — Plays both the ‘3’ and the ‘4’ positions … Posts 10.2 points and six rebounds per game, while hitting 38.8 percent of his overall shots and 33.5 percent of his looks from beyond the arc … 60.5 percent of his shots come from three-point range … Used in a similar fashion to Vescovi — spot ups, off screens, in transition — and is mostly a jump shooter, with just over 15 percent of his shots coming around the rim and 82.8 percent being jumpers … Grades out as a below-average defender.

• #2 – Freshman forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (6-10, 246) — Starts but plays just 12.8 minutes per game … Generates four points and 3.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 45.2 percent from the field … Is 2-of-13 from three-point range.

• #33 – Junior forward Uros Plavsic (7-0, 251) — The Serbian 13.8 minutes per contest … Scores 4.1 points and adds 3.9 boards per outing … Shoots 57.9 percent from the field … Attempted (and missed) just one three-pointer this season … Grades out as a poor defender, and allows 1.038 points per play on post ups.

Key Bench Contributors

• #5 – Freshman guard Zakai Zeigler (5-9, 167) — Comes off the bench but actually plays the majority of the minutes at the point guard spot (22.2 per game), often pushing Chandler to shooting guard … Averages 8.7 points, 2.8 assists and 1.8 rebounds per game, and shoots 37.6 percent from the field and 35.9 percent from long range … Named to the SEC All-Defensive team and grades out in the 93rd percentile on defense according to Synergy … Excellent against ball screens and in isolation situations.

• #10 – Sixth-year senior forward John Fulkerson (6-9, 219) — Averaged over 13 points per game in 2020 but has taken a step back in both minutes and production in each of the last two years … Registers 7.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists while playing 22.2 minutes per contest at the ‘4’ and ‘5’ spots … Shoots 55.7 percent from the field and is 1-of-5 on three-pointers … Grades out in the 99th percentile as a post-up defender, yielding 0.323 points per possession.

Matchup Breakdown

• Tennessee is an elite defensive team that ranks second nationally in efficiency, sixth in steal rate, 30th in block rate, 30th in two-point defense and 55th in three-point defense.

The two guards — Kennedy Chandler and Zakai Zeigler — are tough on-ball defenders and apply pressure, making opposing backcourt players uncomfortable. Michigan has struggled against ball pressure at times this season, with the best and most recent example being in the second half collapse against Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament. Opponents turn the ball over on 23 percent of their possessions against the Vols.

The Volunteers are also strong against ball screens and post ups, which are Michigan’s top two actions on offense. They mix up coverages on pick-and-rolls, mostly hedging but also having the athleticism to switch.

The Volunteers play man-to-man on 94.9 percent of possessions, while sprinkling in zone 5.1 percent of the time. They bring full-court pressure on 7.9 percent of occasions.

• Tennessee’s offense ranks 34th in the country in efficiency, and is largely predicated on getting shooters open via off-ball screens, dribble handoffs and great ball movement, with an assist rate that slots fifth in the nation. The Volunteers shot the three at 36.5 percent for the season and have upped that number to 42.6 percent over the last 14 games. They also clean up the offensive glass, corralling 32.6 percent of their missed shots.

• Michigan has struggled against off-ball screens, grading out in the fifth percentile in the land, and while the Wolverines don’t allow many threes, they do let opponents shoot 33.1 percent from long range (147th in the country). Tennessee’s offense has gone cold several times throughout the season, but those outlier performances have been against teams that rank much better in defensive efficiency than the Maize and Blue. The one glaring weakness of the Vols’ offense is that it ranked last in the SEC in two-point field goal percentage during the conference season (44.9).

• For more on Tennessee, read our five thoughts piece on the matchup between the Wolverines and Volunteers.

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (19-13 ATS)

Not only is Tennessee a much better team than Michigan, it’s also a bad matchup for the Wolverines — a rough combination when it comes to a two-day prep in a single-elimination format.

Tennessee gives up a lot of three-point attempts, but Michigan hasn’t been consistent enough from beyond the arc to trust it’ll knock down its looks against a Volunteers defense that frustrates its opponents. The Vols are good against post-ups, too, which means Hunter Dickinson likely won’t have an easy time on the block. On the other end of the floor, the Wolverines will be tested when chasing around Santiago Vescovi and the Vols’ other shooters. This is a tricky offense to prepare for on 48 hours notice. Michigan will have to hope some of their open shots don’t fall.

Prediction: Tennessee 70, Michigan 61