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Latest NCAA Tournament projections for Mississippi State baseball

3rupauk8_400x400by:Robbie Faulk05/23/25

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Ace Reese (Photo by Mississippi State Athletics)

Just three days away from Selection Monday, the Field of 64 is becoming more and more clear for baseball regionals.

Mississippi State is a team that just a few weeks ago was an afterthought for the NCAA Tournament. The Diamond Dawgs were 7-14 in the SEC and head coach Chris Lemonis was out the door. Now, State is safely in as we head into Championship Weekend across the conferences.

D1Baseball put out its latest projections for how the tournament might shake up and the Bulldogs could be headed to a familiar location. The crew has held firm that State will land back in Tallahassee, Fla. to be paired with No. 11 National Seed Florida State.

The Bulldogs are projected as the No. 3 seed in that Regional with Northeastern the No. 2 seed and Bethune-Cookman the No. 4 seed. The Seminoles (37-13) are set to play in the ACC Tournament on Friday night against Duke and are seemingly locked in as Regional hosts again this season.

Meanwhile, Northeastern (46-9) has been one of the most impressive Mid-Major teams in the country this season after going 25-2 in the Coastal Athletic Association. One of the nation’s top pitching staffs is currently in the semifinals of the CAA tournament and looking to take home the tournament championship to sweep the conference titles.

For Bethune Cookman, they’re also trying to take home both titles. The Wildcats were regular season SWAC Champions and are in the semifinals of the tournament on Friday in Birmingham.

Tallahassee a familiar location for State

State has played FSU more than any other team in the postseason all time. The Bulldogs are 7-4 against the Seminoles with four trips to Tallahassee for the tournament. After going 0-2 in 1993, the Bulldogs booked trips to the Super Regional in 2007 and 2018. State also played there in 2012 and was 1-2.

The 2018 Regional was the most memorable of the trips to this stage. After losing game one against Oklahoma, State used a two-run home run with two outs in the ninth from Elijah MacNamee to stay alive. State would come back and win three more games to take the victory and get to a Super Regional. MSU eventually advanced to the College World Series and was one game away from the National Championship series.

The Diamond Dawgs had an interim head coach for that trip in Gary Henderson and are having some familiar flashbacks this season. Like the 2018 team, the Bulldogs are sneaking into postseason play after a strong SEC finish and .500 mark. That team also was one and done in the SEC Tournament.

MSU lost 9-0 on Wednesday in the one and only game in Hoover, Ala., as Texas A&M cruised against the Bulldogs. State has otherwise been playing good baseball with nine wins in the last 11 games under interim coach Justin Parker.

The selection show is set for Monday at 11 a.m. on ESPN 2.

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