Analyzing NC State women’s basketball’s path back to the Final Four

By Noah Fleischman

After NC State made its first appearance in the Final Four in 25 years last season, the Wolfpack is eager to get back on college basketball’s biggest stage again this March. The Pack earned the No. 2 seed in Region 1 on Selection Sunday, setting up a possible path to clash with top-seeded UCLA in the Elite Eight. 

As NC State looks to get to Tampa, Fla., where this year’s edition of the Final Four will be held, the Wolfpack will have to win a pair of games at home inside Reynolds Coliseum before trekking to Spokane, Wash., for the second weekend. 

Here’s a look at the Wolfpack’s possible path through the NCAA Tournament to get back to the Final Four.

Round of 64

NC State opponent

No. 15 seed Vermont (21-12, 13-3 America East)

All-time results against NC State opponent

Vermont leads the all-time series, 1-0, with a 52-47 win at NC State on Nov. 14, 2009.

The outlook for NC State

The Catamounts, winners of the America East Tournament, enter Reynolds Coliseum as one of the hottest mid-major teams in the country. 

Vermont has won nine of its last 10 games, including a win over top-seeded Albany in the conference title game. The most interesting part of the Catamounts’ game is their stout defensive effort. Vermont has allowed just 52.2 points per game this season and they haven’t given up more than 68 points along the way. 

While the Catamounts play a gritty style of defense, their offense doesn’t score a lot at just 61.1 points per outing. Which one wins the battle? Vermont’s standout defense or NC State’s prolific shooting? That’ll be the difference in this one.

Round of 32

Possible NC State opponents

No. 7 seed Michigan State (21-9, 11-7 Big Ten)
No. 10 seed Harvard (24-4, 11-3 Ivy)

Results against possible NC State opponents

Michigan State leads the all-time series, 2-1. Last game: NC State 78, Michigan State 74 in Cancun, Mexico, on Nov. 22, 2018. 

NC State and Harvard have never met.

The outlook for NC State

Neither one of these teams are easy wins, but that’s why they’re in the NCAA Tournament. 

Michigan State is battle-tested after going through the Big Ten, finishing fifth in the regular season. The Spartans have a pair of wins over AP Top 25 foes this year, including a 68-66 victory over then-No. 21 Iowa on Dec. 15. 

Harvard, meanwhile, won the Ivy League title, leading the way for a three-bid conference for the first time ever. The Crimson aren’t afraid of Power Conference competition with a 3-0 mark against them, including a 72-68 overtime win against then-No. 25 Indiana on Nov. 7. Harvard also beat Boston College, a common opponent with NC State, 78-70 on Nov. 14. 

The Wolfpack has enough talent to beat both teams, especially on its home floor, but either possible opponent will be another test for NC State as it looks to make another deep NCAA Tournament run.

Sweet 16

Possible NC State opponents

No. 3 seed LSU (28-5, 12-4 SEC)
No. 6 seed Florida State (23-8, 13-5 ACC)
No. 11 seed George Mason (27-5, 14-4 A-10)
No. 14 seed San Diego State (25-9, 11-7 Mountain West)

Results against possible NC State opponents

This season:

LSU 82, NC State 65 on Nov. 27 in Nassau, Bahamas
NC State 97, Florida State 74 on Feb. 9 in Tallahassee, Fla., 

All-Time:

vs. George Mason: NC State leads series, 4-0. Last meeting: 75-51 win on Nov. 23, 1996 in Raleigh
vs. San Diego State: NC State leads series, 1-0. Last meeting: 84-67 on Dec. 30, 2013 in San Diego, Calif.

The outlook for NC State

Should the Pack advance to the second weekend, it’s on a collision course for a rematch with LSU. The Wolfpack dropped the meeting with the Tigers earlier this season while its frontcourt was trying to find its footing in November. 

But since then, freshman forward Tilda Trygger has emerged as one of the top young post players in the nation, earning ACC All-Freshman Team honors in the process. Trygger only played five minutes in that game, but she’d be able to learn from the film that both sophomore Mallory Collier and freshman Lorena Awou put on display against LSU star Aneesah Morrow in the loss. 

Wolfpack coach Wes Moore has a knack for making adjustments in the second meeting with a program, and should it be LSU, the 12th-year man will be ready to go. If this game happens, it will be must-watch television between the two squads, both looking for an Elite Eight berth. 

Elite Eight

Possible NC State opponents

No. 1 seed UCLA (30-2, 16-2 Big Ten)
No. 4 seed Baylor (27-7, 15-3 Big 12)
No. 5 seed Ole Miss (20-10, 10-6 SEC)
No. 8 seed Richmond (27-6, 17-1 A-10)
No. 9 seed Georgia Tech (22-10, 9-9 ACC)
No. 12 seed Ball State (27-7, 16-2 MAC)
No. 13 seed Grand Canyon (32-2, 16-0 WAC)

Results against possible NC State opponents

This season:

NC State 68, Ole Miss 61 on Dec. 5 in Raleigh
NC State 83, Georgia Tech 68 on Feb. 20 in Atlanta
NC State 73, Georgia Tech 72 on March 7 in Greensboro

All-Time:

vs. UCLA: never met
vs. Baylor: Series tied, 1-1. Last meeting: NC State 78, Baylor 72 on March 20 in Raleigh (neutral site at Lenovo Center). 
vs. Richmond: never met
vs. Ball State: never met
vs. Grand Canyon: never met

The outlook for NC State

Should the Pack get to the Elite Eight, one win away from the Final Four, it will have to rely on getting a good matchup. UCLA is the worst matchup, scheme-wise, of this group. The Bruins run through a probable All-American in post Lauren Betts. The 6-foot-7 forward is UCLA’s leading scorer at 19.6 points with 9.7 rebounds in 30 minutes a game. That isn’t exactly who the Wolfpack would want its inexperienced frontcourt to face off with in Spokane.

If the Pack could pick, it would likely want to see any other team in this game. But the Bruins are the No. 1 overall seed for a reason. This will be a tough game for NC State should it advance this far, but time will tell. If it is against UCLA, Awou and Trygger will have to play their best game of the season against Betts, without fouling in the process, to get past the Bruins and back to the Final Four for the second straight season.