NC State at UNC: Three thoughts, a bold prediction and more

By Noah Fleischman

NC State was on the brink of a record-setting 10th consecutive loss before the Wolfpack beat Boston College in wire-to-wire fashion to return to the win column on Saturday afternoon. Now, the Pack will look to avenge one of those nine defeats as it visits North Carolina on Wednesday night. 

UNC was the first loss of that program-record-tying losing streak as the Tar Heels escaped the Lenovo Center with a 63-61 win over the Wolfpack on Jan. 11. NC State hopes to use what it learned in that game, a contest the Pack led with 2:28 to play, but struggled to close against the Tar Heels, when the two squads square off at the Smith Center in what might look like a winter wonderland outside. 

Here are three thoughts, a bold prediction and more to preview the Tar Heels (15-11, 8-6 ACC) and Wolfpack (10-15, 3-11). 

3 thoughts going into the game

– Find Ian Jackson. When these two teams squared off last, UNC’s freshman guard was in the midst of his, at the time, six-game double-digit scoring streak. He simmered off after that with just three such performances following a 21-point performance that included five made three-pointers at NC State. While he hasn’t been as prolific of a shooter — 31.2 percent from the field in the last nine games, down from 47.5 percent on his hot streak — Jackson seems to be finding his groove again. He had 23 points with five made triples at Syracuse on Saturday. Guarding him with a purpose will be uber important and it is likely going to be senior guard Jayden Taylor’s defensive responsibility. He’s been stout, as of late, on that end and will need a big-time performance against the Tar Heels’ second-leading scorer (13.7 points). 

– This could be an opportunity for Ben Middlebrooks to rebound. NC State’s go-to center has been on a roller coaster this season. And if the Pack’s first meeting with UNC was its apex, the games since have been a corkscrew for the former Clemson transfer. Middlebrooks scored just 5 points in the last meeting with the Tar Heels, but he was able to dominate the glass with a career-best 14 rebounds. Since that game, however, Middlebrooks has corralled a total of 28 rebounds in his last nine appearances. He, instead, has picked up 31 total fouls and is averaging 5.2 points (or 3.2 in the last seven games) over that stretch. While UNC has a pair of bigs in Ven-Allen Lubin and Jalen Washington, neither are imposing enough to pose a massive threat to Middlebrooks’ ability to corral boards — or find creative ways to score around the rim. If there’s going to be a game that could jumpstart Middlebrooks for the final stretch of the regular season, a rivalry tilt on the road is the prime opportunity for that. 

– The bench has been good to NC State — keep using it. The Wolfpack earned 29 points from its bench against Boston College, which continued a trend over the last three games, where NC State has received 33.3 points from its reserves. Wolfpack head coach Kevin Keatts has gone deeper into his bench than usual this year, and it has paid off. He has had four different players score in double digits off the bench in the last three games, including Trey Parker, who has done it twice with 13 and 19 points. If NC State is going to find a way to steal this one at UNC, the bench will need to provide a jolt of energy. The Pack’s reserves combined to score just 8 points in the first meeting between these two teams, while senior guards Marcus Hill and Jayden Taylor had to carry the scoring load with 20 and 12 points, respectively. If the Pack’s bench, which is averaging 21.6 points this season, can provide a balanced attack, NC State could position itself well to earn the upset bid on national television.

Bold prediction

– Parker had just 3 points in 10 minutes against Boston College on Saturday. That will change against UNC. He logged 15 when the Pack played at Duke, and a hostile environment won’t rattle him in Chapel Hill. I’ll say Parker scores at least 12 points off the bench for the Wolfpack. 

Last game’s bold prediction: NC State needs its youth movement to continue. This is an opportunity for Paul McNeil to build off what he did against Louisville. I’ll say he logs at least 10 points for his first back-to-back double-digit scoring output of his young Wolfpack career. He played just one minute and scored 2 points in the process.

Broadcast details

TV: ESPN
Tipoff: 7 p.m ET
Broadcasters: Rece Davis (play-by-play) and Jay Bilas (analyst)

Radio: WRAL-FM
Air time: 6 p.m. ET
Broadcasters: Matt Chazanow (play-by-play) and Tony Haynes (analyst)

NC State game notes

– Taylor, who was in a five-game scoring slump of single-digit performances, snapped that with a 19-point effort in the Pack’s 70-62 win over Boston College. He was able to pour 16 points in the first half, which helped set the tone for the rest of the game. The former Butler transfer also added four steals in the win, which marked his eighth game with at least two takeaways in the last 11. He has 25 steals in ACC play, the fifth-most of any player in the league.

– Wolfpack senior guard Dontrez Styles will return to Chapel Hill for the first time since he spent his first two seasons of college basketball at UNC. He appeared in 45 career games with the Tar Heels. 

– Since senior forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield returned to the lineup after missing three games with a shoulder injury, he has seemed to play with a new mindset. He posted season-best 10 rebounds against Louisville last week, which included seven offensive boards, while he scored 11 points in 12 minutes on the court against Boston College on Saturday. 

UNC outlook

– This will be the 249th all-time meeting between the Tar Heels and Wolfpack. UNC leads the series 167-81, including the first matchup of the season — a 63-61 win for the Tar Heels in Raleigh. 

– Senior guard RJ Davis leads UNC with a scoring average of 17.3 points per game on 40.5 percent shooting, while Jackson is averaging 13.7, junior guard Seth Trimble accounts for 12.0 and sophomore guard Elliot Cadeau logs 10.3 a night. 

– The Tar Heels are fresh off an 88-82 win at Syracuse on Saturday night. While UNC enters off a win, it hasn’t been dominant as of late, losing five of its last eight games.