Skip to main content
nc-state logo

KenPom releases preseason rankings for NC State

by:Matt Coe•10/18/22
On3 image
NC State basketball head coach Kevin Keatts (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

The always exciting and never not controversial preseason KenPom rankings have dropped, and NC State basketball is ranked 81st. This ranking predicts that NC State will finish 12th in the Atlantic Coast Conference. As the season approaches, the statistical wizard that is Ken Pomeroy crunches the numbers and ranks all 363 D-I teams. Here’s how the rest of the ACC stacks up:

Virginia – 5

UNC – 9

Duke – 15

Virginia Tech – 21

Miami – 42

Notre Dame – 43

Syracuse – 54

Clemson – 60

Florida State – 65

Boston College – 74

Wake Forest – 80

NC State – 81

Pitt – 84

Louisville – 91

Georgia Tech – 117

After last season, expectations are up in the air. This team is facing several questions with a roster that includes four transfers who will be asked to be main contributors right away. Keatts is now in year six with the Wolfpack and have finished above their preseason KenPom ranking just once. The No. 81 KenPom ranking is the Wolfpacks lowest since Keatts first year in Raleigh when the team was ranked No. 109 and finished No. 46.

Past KenPom Preseason Vs. Final Rankings Under Kevin Keatts

YearPreseason RankFinal Ranking
2017-1810946
2018-193641
2019-202850
2020-215571
2021-2256128

The three important stats that determine the KenPom preseason ranking include adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and adjusted tempo. Both adjusted offense and adjusted defense are determined by points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. Adjusted tempo is determined by possessions per 40 minutes.

Below are the preseason numbers for the Pack:

Adjusted offensive efficiency: 106.3 (56th out of 363 teams in the NCAA)

Adjusted defensive efficiency: 96.5 (118th)

Adjusted tempo: 71.9 (140th)

The offense is on par with the average over the five-year span under Keatts. The defense is almost identical to the average over that same time frame.

The adjusted tempo is a stat line that might shock some fans. While Keatts prides himself on being an up tempo style of defense, the team has drastically slowed down their pace of play. NC State has finished sub-100 in the last 3 seasons in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.

Adjusted Stats Under Keatts

YearAdjusted OffenseAdjusted DefenseAdjusted Tempo
2017-18116.3 (No. 21)101.8 (No. 109)71.4 (No. 38)
2018-19113.1 (No. 34)98.1 (No. 62)71.0 (No. 39)
2019-20110.7 (No. 42)97.3 (No. 79)69.5 (No. 103)
2020-21109.4 (No. 63)97.4 (No. 87)67.8 (No. 193)
2021-22109.6 (No. 59)106.0 (No. 246)66.9 (No. 192)

As the season progresses, other stats such as strength of schedule will determine the fluctuation of teams up and down the KenPom rankings.

The Wolfpack put together one of the strongest non-conference schedules in Keatts’ tenure. NC State finished last season 67th in KenPom’s strength of schedule. NC State’s non-conference opponents’ average KenPom ranking, not including Wisconsin and Dayton, sits at 192. Once the final Battle 4 Atlantis matchups are set, NC State’s opponents’ average will likeky land in the mid 170s. Here is how NC State’s opponents rank according to KenPom, listed in chronological order.

Austin Peay – 218

Campbell: – 194

FIU – 232

Elon – 302

Kansas – 8

Wisconsin/Dayton – 55/24

Butler/BYU/Tennesse/USC – 130/44/4/36

William & Mary – 326

Coppin State – 315

Furman – 69

Vanderbilt – 66

One interesting stat that KenPom measures is luck. Yes, you read that correctly, KenPom measures luck. The Wolfpack could’ve used some of that last year as their luck rating measured -.076 which finished 330th out of 363 teams.

Of course, if you’re an NC State fan, you don’t need numbers or statistics to tell you how unlucky the Pack was last year.

You may also like