NC State football game predictions: California

By Ethan McDowell

NC State wants to get out of its own way this week. The Wolfpack heads into its Week 8 game against California leading the ACC in turnovers, while the Golden Bears, who lost to both Miami and Pittsburgh by one score, lead all Power Four programs in turnover margin.

Both schools are winless in the league so far. NC State has lost consecutive games at home for the first time in years and stands 3-4 on the season, needing to win 3 of its final 5 games to achieve bowl eligibility. Cal is 3-3, and each of its past 3 games have ended in defeat.

Here are TheWolfpacker.com’s predictions for the Pack’s trip to the West Coast.

Ethan McDowell’s prediction for NC State vs. California

Cal and NC State are both 0-3 in the ACC, but their winless records look drastically different when you look at the actual results. The Golden Bears have played ranked Miami and Pittsburgh squads the past 2 weeks and lost by a combined 3 points. NC State’s only games against ranked teams so far this season resulted in defeats by a total of 69 points.

This California squad upset Auburn on the road earlier this year and captured the hearts of many college football fans through their fanbase’s fun social media presence. Cal even hosted College GameDay a couple of weeks ago. The former Pac-12 program has not lost a game by more than 5 points this season.

Thanks to its turnover-hungry secondary, Cal has a high floor. Their offense ranks No. 15 in the ACC, directly behind the Wolfpack, at 24.2 points per game, but California leads the league in interceptions with 13 to supplement those struggles. A total of 7 players have at least 1 pick, and cornerback Nohl Williams paces the conference with 6.

The margin for error against this team is super small for the Wolfpack offense. Last week, the Golden Bears held Pittsburgh to its lowest point total of the fall.

Offensively, Cal has relied on a decent passing game that puts up 247 yards per game. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Fernando Mendoza has grown in his second season as a starter and is taking care of the ball and playing well enough to complement a great defensive effort by his team. The Pack’s Week 8 opponent only has 1 fumble and 3 interceptions this fall but has allowed 24 sacks— the most in the conference.

Mendoza is not making many mistakes despite facing near-constant pressure. NC State needs its blitzes to end in sacks and tackles for loss Saturday. Last week, the Pack pressured Syracuse well, but Kyle McCord made quick decisions and stayed upright for most of this game, racking up 346 passing yards. Unless NC State’s offense takes a dramatic step forward with ball security, the defense will have to play one of its best games of the season while potentially missing multiple starters.

Syracuse still gave the Pack a chance to pull off a win last week despite losing the turnover battle 3-0. If NC State gives the ball away more than Cal this weekend, it will be very difficult to beat the Golden Bears.

Also, this is the final game before NC State’s first bye week. The Pack is one of 2 ACC teams to play 8-consecutive games to start this year. It’s the longest Dave Doeren has coached without a bye week, and that takes a physical toll. Last year, when the Wolfpack played 7 games before its bye, that final matchup was a blowout loss to Duke.

TheWolfpacker.com picked this trip as a potential trap game before the season. Now, it just looks like a bad matchup.

Prediction: California 21, NC State 17

Previous predictions:
NC State 45, Western Carolina 10 (Actual: NC State 38, Western Carolina 21)
Tennessee 41, NC State 28 (Actual: Tennessee 51, NC State 10)
NC State 34, Louisiana Tech 3 (Actual: NC State 30, Louisiana Tech 20)
Clemson 38, NC State 24 (Actual: Clemson 59, NC State 35)
NC State 27, Northern Illinois 24 (Actual: NC State 24, Northern Illinois 17)
NC State 30, Wake Forest 20 (Actual: Wake Forest 34, NC State 30)
Syracuse 38, NC State 31 (Actual: Syracuse 24, NC State 17)

Noah Fleischman’s prediction

For the first time since 1960, NC State will finally play a game in California. COVID-19 will not cancel this one, like it did the Holiday Bowl against UCLA in 2022. The Pack, which is scheduled to depart Thursday after practice, will play Cal for the first time ever. 

Welcome to the new ACC — spanning across all coasts. 

The Wolfpack, which has lost the last two games by a combined 11 points, will play a Bears squad that has lost three in a row by a combined 8 points. Both teams are looking for their first ACC win of the season, and the two squads have been on the cusp of wins in their last few times out. 

Cal, however, is a dangerous team for NC State to travel more than 3,000 miles to play. The Bears lead the ACC in interceptions (13), which is tied for the best in FBS football overall. That doesn’t bode well for NC State, which has struggled to keep the ball in its own hands. The Pack has thrown six interceptions this season, including at least one in four of CJ Bailey’s five meaningful appearances this fall.

The Wolfpack has coughed up the football 13 times, losing seven of those. That mark is one off the FBS lead for most lost fumbles this season. Fumbles plagued NC State against Syracuse, the Wolfpack losing two inside the Orange 30-yard line that cost the team scoring opportunities in what was a one-score loss. 

NC State knows the Bears’ defense is more than capable of wrecking the game. The Pack has an added emphasis on taking care of the football, while the defense is looking to take the ball away from quarterback Fernando Mendoza. He has thrown just three interceptions this season, but Mendoza has been sacked 24 times. The Pack defense has to be licking its chops to get into the backfield against the Bears. 

But this game might be too tall of a challenge for NC State to overcome. It will be playing its eighth straight contest with a much-needed bye coming next week. The Pack will play a cleaner game, but the Bears will find a way to make one more play than NC State. 

Prediction: Cal 24, NC State 20

NC State 47, Western Carolina 3 (Actual: NC State 38, Western Carolina 21)
NC State 38, Tennessee 37 (Actual: Tennessee 51, NC State 10)
NC State 43, Louisiana Tech 10. (Actual: NC State 30, Louisiana Tech 20)
Clemson 35, NC State 20. (Actual: Clemson 59, NC State 35)
NC State 30, Northern Illinois 17 (Actual: NC State 24, Northern Illinois 17)
NC State 27, Wake Forest 17 (Actual: Wake 34, NC State 30)
Syracuse 30, NC State 17 (Actual: Syracuse 24, NC State 17)