NC State football game predictions: Clemson

By Ethan McDowell

NC State kicks off ACC play this weekend against No. 21 Clemson, a Textile Bowl clash on the road in Death Valley. The Wolfpack has won two of the previous three meetings between these two schools but comes into this matchup as the significant underdog.

Betting markets favor Clemson by 20.5 points in this game with the Tigers coming off a bye week. Both schools have lost one game this year to a top-10 SEC opponent. Georgia beat Clemson decisively in Atlanta, and Tennessee blew out NC State in Charlotte.

This is the second consecutive week the Wolfpack will play an opponent that just wrapped up a bye week, and it’s the program’s first true road test. Freshman quarterback CJ Bailey will log his first career start Saturday, potentially ushering in a new era of NC State football in front of more than 80,000 fans.

The Wolfpack and Tigers will kick off at 12 noon ET on ABC. Here are TheWolfpacker.com’s predictions for the conference opener.

Ethan McDowell’s prediction for NC State vs. Clemson

NC State beat Clemson last year thanks to a KC Concepcion takeover and a dominant performance from the defense. The Wolfpack’s superstar receiver scored 2 touchdowns as he racked up more than 50 yards rushing and receiving. Sean Brown led the team in tackles that day, and NC State pressured quarterback Cade Klubnik on all 14 of its blitz attempts.

Both teams were 4-3 at that point in the year. This year, despite early losses, the ACC rivals have all their goals right in front of them. NC State’s schedule is front-loaded, and this could be the program’s best chance to make a statement on a national stage this season.

Bailey stood out as a spark for NC State last week, but Clemson’s defense is in a different stratosphere from Louisiana Tech. The Wolfpack slowed down the Bulldog rushing attack, but the Tigers’ feature back Phil Mafah is a tough, physical runner at 230 pounds who could cause the defense some issues.

NC State needs to protect Bailey just like it did against La. Tech when the unit allowed 2 pressures. That’s a much taller task against Clemson’s talented defensive front. If the Pack’s running game does not improve Saturday after showing promise at 4 yards per carry last week, then that puts a ton of responsibility on the freshman signal-caller.

As talented as Bailey is, it will probably be difficult for NC State to generate a ton of offensive success without the safety blanket of an at least decent rushing attack. Jordan Waters racked up 109 total yards against Clemson in an upset win with Duke last year. Maybe this could be the breakout game for the touted transfer.

Defensively, NC State needs to find a way to keep Clemson off schedule, something the program has struggled to do so far this season. The Pack recorded 11 tackles for loss over its first 3 games. Tennessee’s consistent rushing attack two weeks ago kept them in manageable third-down situations, which helped the Volunteers eventually put up 50 points on the Pack.

Tony Gibson has been fairly conservative with his blitzing so far this year. It will be interesting to see if he ramps up the pressure against a quarterback NC State rattled last year. Klubnik threw 2 interceptions for the first and only time in his career last year inside Carter-Finley Stadium.

The recipe is there. This year’s Clemson team is not much different than last year’s outside of some improved receiver talent. NC State needs to replicate last year’s performance in front of a hostile crowd with an inexperienced quarterback and a defense that has not played at the level of last year’s squad yet.

Prediction: Clemson 38, NC State 24

Previous predictions:
NC State 45, Western Carolina 10 (Actual: NC State 38, Western Carolina 21)
Tennessee 41, NC State 28 (Actual: Tennessee 51, NC State 10)
NC State 34, Louisiana Tech 3 (Actual: NC State 30, Louisiana Tech 20)

Noah Fleischman’s prediction

This is a key game on NC State’s ACC schedule. While it is the conference opener, Clemson provides the Wolfpack an opportunity to make a national statement while kicking off its quest for a trip to the ACC Championship Game. 

But while the Pack has recent success against the Tigers, with two wins in its last three tries, Death Valley has been a near-impossible place to win for NC State. The Wolfpack has not won there since 2002, when Philip Rivers was at the helm of the squad. So, it’s been a long time and coach Dave Doeren is looking to get his first victory at Clemson’s Memorial Stadium. 

Although it is a tough environment, the Pack will trot freshman quarterback CJ Bailey out for his first start at NC State. It’ll be quite the introduction for the former three-star recruit. 

While Bailey will be ready to face the Clemson defense schematically, the environment could pose a major challenge for the first-year quarterback. He has not seen a crowd of this magnitude in his career, so his ability to handle the pressure and noise will be paramount.

The offensive line’s ability to protect Bailey and open up the run game is also key going into this one. The run game took a step forward against Louisiana Tech, averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry. That is crucial in keeping this one close, and taking some of the heat off Bailey’s back.

Even though NC State’s defense could keep the Wolfpack in the game, Clemson will have too much firepower for the visitors to overcome. NC State will likely begin ACC play 0-1, and it will have some work to do (and probably need help) to make it to Charlotte in December.

Prediction: Clemson 35, NC State 20. 

Previous predictions:
NC State 47, Western Carolina 3 (Actual: NC State 38, Western Carolina 21)
NC State 38, Tennessee 37 (Actual: Tennessee 51, NC State 10)
NC State 43, Louisiana Tech 10. (Actual: NC State 30, Louisiana Tech 20)