NC State football game predictions: Duke

NC State is 4-2 with a chance to pick up its second ACC win of the season Saturday, catapulting the team into its bye week. To do so, the Wolfpack has to hit the road and take down the 4-1 Duke Blue Devils— the No. 17 team in the country.

During his 10 prior seasons with the program, head coach Dave Doeren has only played at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham once. NC State lost 38-20 in a 2013 showdown with Duke. The Wolfpack then defeated the Blue Devils 31-20 in 2020 at Carter-Finley Stadium.

Now, the program has a chance to pick up another in-state win during the Saturday night primetime game.

Here are TheWolfpacker.com’s predictions for the ACC showdown.

Ethan McDowell’s prediction for NC State vs. Duke

NC State’s offense made some promising progress against Marshall. Sophomore quarterback MJ Morris adds an explosive yet calm element to the Pack’s attack that opens up the running game as well. He played well for most of the Marshall win, and the offensive line bounced back as well.

Duke will provide a much stronger test for the Wolfpack. The Blue Devils’ defense ranks No. 1 in the ACC at 11.2 points allowed per game. Over 5 games, opponents have only scored 7 touchdowns. No team, including Notre Dame and Clemson, has been able to move the ball consistently against the ACC championship game contender.

They rotate nine defensive linemen through a talented front and boast arguably the top secondary in the ACC. Duke’s three highest-graded defensive players on Pro Football Focus (PFF) are all cornerbacks.

To complement that, the offense scores 32.6 points per game and leads the conference in rushing touchdowns with 16. I would be surprised to see quarterback Riley Leonard play against the Pack, but redshirt-freshman Henry Belin IV is a talented passer as well.

NC State’s defense will be able to cause problems for an inexperienced signal-caller, but I am worried the offense will have to rely too much on explosive plays. Duke’s defense is probably too talented to sustain many long, successful drives against.

Special teams will be super important to this game, and NC State holds the edge there with two elite returners in Julian Gray and Jalen Coit and a better placekicker, Brayden Narveson. Duke sophomore Todd Pelino is just 5 for 9 on the year and missed 2 attempts inside 40 yards against Notre Dame.

The Wolfpack has a chance to pull off this ranked upset, and I could absolutely see the program leaving this game with a win if the offense takes care of the ball. With that said, I see Duke scoring a couple of touchdowns, while NC State settles for field goals, leading to a narrow defeat.

Prediction: Duke 17, NC State 16

Previous predictions: 

NC State 27, Marshall 13 (Actual: NC State 48, Marshall 41)
NC State 31, Louisville 30 (Actual: Louisville 13, NC State 10)
NC State 31, UVA 13 (Actual: NC State 24, UVA 21)
NC State 45, VMI 0 (Actual: NC State 45, VMI 7)
Notre Dame 27, NC State 20 (Actual: Notre Dame 45, NC State 24)
NC State 24, UConn 10 (Actual: NC State 24, UConn 14)

Noah Fleischman’s prediction

This weekend’s game is a big opportunity for NC State to earn its first ranked win of the season at No. 17 Duke.  

NC State outlasted Marshall a week ago in a high-scoring affair in sophomore quarterback MJ Morris’ first start of the season. Morris shook off a rough start with two interceptions in his first seven passes, and went on to throw for 265 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Pack to a win. 

With his first road start on tap this weekend at Duke, Morris has a tall task on his hands against one of the best defenses in the ACC. The Blue Devils boast the top-ranked pass defense in the ACC (159 yards allowed per game). 

Though that’s the case, the Wolfpack have the third-best run defense in the ACC (97.0 yards surrendered per game). Led by graduate linebacker Payton Wilson, the Pack defense swarms to the ball. While Wilson paces the ACC with 70 tackles, NC State also boasts a vaunted pass rush with redshirt junior defensive end Red Hibbler, who has 4.5 sacks.

NC State has an opportunity for a statement win in Durham. If the Wolfpack defense plays well, it will give Morris and company a good chance of winning the game. 

Prediction: NC State 24, Duke 20

Previous Predictions:

NC State 24, Marshall 10 (Actual: NC State 48, Marshall 41)
Louisville 35, NC State 21 (Actual: Louisville 13, NC State 10)
NC State 31, UVA 10 (Actual: NC State 24, UVA 21)
NC State 52, VMI 3 (Actual: NC State 45, VMI 7)