NC State football game predictions: Duke

By Ethan McDowell

NC State football (5-4) plays its senior day game this weekend a bit earlier than usual. With four weeks left in the regular season, the Wolfpack will take the field at Carter-Finley Stadium for the final time in a clash against Duke.

The Blue Devils lost last week in a high-scoring matchup to Miami but stand 6-3, thanks to a strong defense and some timely playmaking by transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy and transfer running back Star Thomas. Duke has dropped consecutive games to ranked ACC opponents coming into this showdown.

Here are TheWolfpacker.com’s predictions for NC State’s Week 11 clash with the Blue Devils. The two Research Triangle programs have only played twice in the past decade and split those games.

Ethan McDowell’s prediction for NC State vs. Duke

Duke has 3 Power Four wins to its name under first-year head coach Manny Diaz — a double-overtime win over Northwestern (4-5), a thrilling comeback against UNC (5-4) and its first win over Florida State (1-8) in school history. The Blue Devils have lost three of their past four games but, considering how much of the team left following last year’s coaching change, this program is clearly ahead of schedule.

Even though Duke’s ground game ranks No. 15 in the ACC, NC State will still have to worry about slowing down Thomas, who averages 4.3 yards per carry and racked up 706 yards so far this season. The Wolfpack’s rushing defense ranks No. 14 in the ACC.

Murphy loves to throw the deep ball, while also using a steady diet of screens to stretch the field horizontally. This matchup will test the Pack defensive backs and, when healthy, the secondary is the strength of this team. NC State will have to make one-on-one plays in coverage while shedding blocks and making sound tackles in the open field. If they can do that, then this game sets up well for the Wolfpack defense.

Offensively, Duke is super vulnerable on the ground, giving up 156.6 yards per game this year. NC State’s offensive line played arguably its best game of the season last week and cleared great lanes for Jordan Waters and Hollywood Smothers who ran hard, broke tackles and showcased the potential of this backfield. If they can replicate that outing to some extent, that would be huge for the Pack.

Duke’s passing defense leads the ACC and ranks No. 34 nationally at 192.6 yards allowed per contest. The in-state program also ranks in the top third of the conference in sacks and interceptions. NC State needs to stay on schedule offensively, or it will put freshman quarterback CJ Bailey in some difficult spots.

This game could come down to winning one-on-one battles in the secondary and running the ball consistently. I’m confident NC State can accomplish the former, and last week’s rushing performance gave me hope for the latter. This is one of the toughest games to call this year, but let’s run with the Wolfpack finding a way to eek out a win on senior day.

Prediction: NC State 24, Duke 23

Previous predictions:
NC State 45, Western Carolina 10 (Actual: NC State 38, Western Carolina 21)
Tennessee 41, NC State 28 (Actual: Tennessee 51, NC State 10)
NC State 34, Louisiana Tech 3 (Actual: NC State 30, Louisiana Tech 20)
Clemson 38, NC State 24 (Actual: Clemson 59, NC State 35)
NC State 27, Northern Illinois 24 (Actual: NC State 24, Northern Illinois 17)
NC State 30, Wake Forest 20 (Actual: Wake Forest 34, NC State 30)
Syracuse 38, NC State 31 (Actual: Syracuse 24, NC State 17)
California 21, NC State 17 (Actual: NC State 24, Cal 23)
 NC State 34, Stanford 14 (Actual: NC State 59, Stanford 28)

Noah Fleischman’s prediction

NC State, for the first time this season, is riding a winning streak. The Pack, which beat Stanford in convincing fashion, has a new sense of momentum going into its final home game of the season against Duke. 

The Blue Devils, ironically, led to the Wolfpack turning its season around last fall after Duke cruised past NC State in Durham. This year, both squads have a different look. Former Pack assistant Manny Diaz is leading the charge for the Blue Devils, while freshman quarterback CJ Bailey is running the Wolfpack’s offense. 

This year’s Duke team isn’t a pushover. The Blue Devils are 6-3 with the ACC’s sixth-best scoring defense at 22.4 points allowed a game. The Blue Devils also boast the best pass defense in the conference with 192.6 yards allowed per game, more than eight yards better than the next-closest team. 

Although Duke’s defense has been above average, its offense is towards the bottom of the conference. The Blue Devils have the 13th-best passing offense in the ACC (192.6 yards per game), while its rushing attack is 15th in the league (107.2 yards per game). NC State’s defense, which has been inconsistent this fall, needs to match Duke’s to give Bailey and company a chance on Saturday afternoon. 

Bailey has impressed, especially as of late. He has been one of the top freshman signal-callers in all of college football with 1,610 passing yards to go with 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Bailey has not thrown a pick in his last two starts, while he’s passed for five scores over that span. He diced up Stanford’s defense with a 90% completion rate, the best mark of any quarterback in college football last weekend. 

With that in mind, NC State should be able to win its third consecutive game and reach bowl eligibility for the fifth straight season under coach Dave Doeren. 

Prediction: NC State 35, Duke 28

Previous predictions:
NC State 47, Western Carolina 3 (Actual: NC State 38, Western Carolina 21)
NC State 38, Tennessee 37 (Actual: Tennessee 51, NC State 10)
NC State 43, Louisiana Tech 10. (Actual: NC State 30, Louisiana Tech 20)
Clemson 35, NC State 20. (Actual: Clemson 59, NC State 35)
NC State 30, Northern Illinois 17 (Actual: NC State 24, Northern Illinois 17)
NC State 27, Wake Forest 17 (Actual: Wake 34, NC State 30)
Syracuse 30, NC State 17 (Actual: Syracuse 24, NC State 17)
Cal 24, NC State 20 (Actual: NC State 24, Cal 23)
NC State 30, Stanford 17 (Actual: NC State 59, Stanford 28)