NC State football game predictions: Game 12 vs. UNC

NC State has a chance to right the course of its season and head into its bowl game on a high note this weekend. The Wolfpack travel to Chapel Hill for a matchup against in-state rival North Carolina.

ESPN will broadcast the game with kickoff scheduled for 3:30 p.m. EST.

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Here are The Wolfpacker staff predictions for this weekend:

Matt Carter’s prediction

Earlier in the week there was the possibility of rain coming Friday. That weather still seems likely, with a decent amount of precipitation falling in the Triangle. However, that should move out by the time kickoff arrives in Chapel Hill. 

Thus, the vaunted North Carolina passing attack should be unimpeded by Mother Nature, meaning NC State is going to have to win the game on the merits.

Here’s the thing: there is a pathway to pulling that off. Keep UNC quarterback Drake Maye in the pocket where an offensive line that struggles in pass protection likely will not hold up long and allow pressure to get home.

Run the football against a UNC defense that is not physical up front and struggles to stop the opponent’s ground game. Conversely, that also keeps Maye and company on the sideline. That means winning on third downs.

Lastly, protect the football and win on special teams.

In other words, NC State needs to do what Georgia Tech did last Saturday when the Yellow Jackets won 21-17. GT was 8 of 15 on third downs compared to UNC’s 4 of 14. The Jackets held the ball for 34:27 by rushing twice as much as throwing and the turnover margin was a wash at one apiece. 

By the way, Georgia Tech was also playing with backup options at quarterback, like the Pack will be. 

And the cliché of throw the records out of the books in a rivalry game is true. Who can forget in 1999 when an 1-8 UNC team was forced to play a safety named Antwon Black at quarterback (Black last played the position in high school) and somehow beat NC State, who was 6-4 at that point, 10-6 thanks to a goal line stand to end the contest.

So there is a path for the Wolfpack to win this game.

I just don’t think the Pack will pull that off.

Prediction: North Carolina 33, NC State 20

Previous Predictions:

Week 1: NC State 34, East Carolina 17 (actual: NC State 21, East Carolina 20)

Week 2: NC State 48, Charleston Southern 7 (actual: NC State 55, Charleston Southern 3)

Week 3: NC State 30, Texas Tech 17 (actual: NC State 27, Texas Tech 14)

Week 4: NC State 45, UConn 7 (actual: NC State 41, UConn 10)

Week 5: Clemson 30, NC State 21 (actual: Clemson 30, the Wolfpack 20)

Week 6: NC State 27, Florida State 17 (actual: the Wolfpack 19, Florida State 17)

Week 7: NC State 24, Syracuse 14 (actual: Syracuse 24, the Wolfpack 9)

Week 8: NC State 21, Virginia Tech 10 (actual: the Wolfpack 22, Virginia Tech 21)

Week 9: Wake Forest 34, NC State 20 (actual: the Wolfpack 30, Wake Forest 21)

Week 10: NC State 33, Boston College 13 (actual: Boston College 21, NC State 20)

Week 11:  Louisville 20, NC State 13 (actual: Louisville 25, NC State 10)

Ethan McDowell’s prediction

Similarly to Matt, I do believe a path exists where NC State leaves Chapel Hill with a win. Georgia Tech, unexpectedly, became the first team to show a bit of a blueprint on how to slow down Drake Maye and the rest of the Tar Heels’ offense.

Wolfpack defensive coordinator Tony Gibson will assuredly take that information, expand upon and improve the game plan for Friday. Because of that, I expect we will see the same elite defensive production as the rest of the season to this point.

The issue is, even with a good-to-great performance from the defense, North Carolina still has the firepower to put up 30 points. NC State will need to respond with an improved day on offense. If MJ Morris is unable to play, Ben Finley will take over under center after showing flashes last week.

While the redshirt-freshman made some nice throws, he also had about 4-5 that could have been picked off. You can’t give North Carolina a short field, so the Wolfpack needs to lock in and play mistake-free football.

Avoiding an early deficit and establishing the tempo of the game through running backs Jordan Houston and Michael Allen will be crucial against one of the nation’s worst rushing defenses. If the Wolfpack can do that, it could be a close game.

Overall, rivalry games rarely go as expected, and I think that will work in the Pack’s favor, but I think a late touchdown by the Tar Heels will put the game out of reach.

Prediction: North Carolina 27, NC State 17

Previous predictions:

Week 1: The Wolfpack 38, East Carolina 10 (actual: the Wolfpack 21, East Carolina 20)

Week 2: The Wolfpack 52, Charleston Southern 6 (actual: the Wolfpack 55, Charleston Southern 3)

Week 3: The Wolfpack 35, Texas Tech 20 (actual: the Wolfpack 27, Texas Tech 14)

Week 4: The Wolfpack 52, UConn 6 (actual: the Wolfpack 41, UConn 10)

Week 5: Clemson 28, the Wolfpack 24 (actual: Clemson 30, the Wolfpack 20)

Week 6: The Wolfpack 31, Florida State 20 (actual: the Wolfpack 19, Florida State 17)

Week 7: The Wolfpack 20, Syracuse 17 (actual: Syracuse 24, the Wolfpack 9)

Week 8: The Wolfpack 24, Virginia Tech 6 (actual: the Wolfpack 22, Virginia Tech 21)

Week 9: The Wolfpack 31, Wake Forest 30 (actual: the Wolfpack 30, Wake Forest 21)

Week 10: The Wolfpack 34, Boston College 10 (actual: Boston College 21, the Wolfpack 20)

Week 11:  Louisville 20, the Wolfpack 17 (actual: Louisville 25, the Wolfpack 10)