NC State football game predictions: Mayo Bowl vs. Maryland

NC State has a chance to secure its second-consecutive 9-win season Friday when it arrives at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to face Maryland in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. This matchup rekindles a dormant ACC rivalry that sits tied at 33-33-4.

After facing off every year as conference opponents, the Wolfpack and Terrapins have not clashed since the latter left for the Big-10 in 2014.

ESPN will broadcast the game with kickoff set for 12 p.m. EST.

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Here are The Wolfpacker staff predictions for this weekend:

Matt Carter’s prediction

Any fan of NC State football over the seemingly past 20 years recognizes a pattern with many (but not all) of their teams during that span— a tendency to excite a fanbase with an impressive performance that makes the Wolfpack look like they can play with anyone in the ACC, and then the demoralizing loss (see Boston College at home this year) or an unimpressive performance that plays down to the level of competition (see at East Carolina this year).

If you were to close your eyes and pretend that Maryland’s 2022 season results thus far was NC State’s, the year would fit right into that pattern. 

The Terrapins may have played the Big Ten heavyweight combo of Michigan and Ohio State better than anyone else in that top-heavy league. They were within one score of each opponent in the fourth quarter.

Yet Maryland needed a fourth-quarter rally to beat SMU at home and a late 75-yard touchdown run from redshirt freshman Roman Hemby to break a tie against 1-win Northwestern, also played in College Park.

None of Maryland’s five losses are bad. Even a narrow 2-point setback to Purdue at home was against a Boilermakers squad that represented the weaker Big Ten division in the conference title game. 

However, none of their wins really stand out, either. Maryland trailed a 4-8 Indiana team on the road in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, not one team they beat had a winning record in the regular season (SMU and Buffalo did win their respective bowl games to get to 7-6 overall). 

They benefitted from playing almost as weak a league slate as they possibly could have. Of the five Big Ten teams with losing records, Maryland played four of them, and won each. That made up their four conference wins.

That paints a Maryland team that has some talent but a thin margin for error. 

Given the injuries and overall ineffectiveness on offense, especially at the quarterback position, that was a lot like NC State in 2022. However, the feeling here is that the Wolfpack’s defense will make Maryland trying to traverse that thin line too difficult, and NC State football gets a fourth nine-win season in the past six years.

Prediction: The Wolfpack 27, Maryland 21

Previous Predictions:

Week 1: NC State 34, East Carolina 17 (actual: NC State 21, East Carolina 20)

Week 2: NC State 48, Charleston Southern 7 (actual: NC State 55, Charleston Southern 3)

Week 3: NC State 30, Texas Tech 17 (actual: NC State 27, Texas Tech 14)

Week 4: NC State 45, UConn 7 (actual: NC State 41, UConn 10)

Week 5: Clemson 30, NC State 21 (actual: Clemson 30, the Wolfpack 20)

Week 6: NC State 27, Florida State 17 (actual: the Wolfpack 19, Florida State 17)

Week 7: NC State 24, Syracuse 14 (actual: Syracuse 24, the Wolfpack 9)

Week 8: NC State 21, Virginia Tech 10 (actual: the Wolfpack 22, Virginia Tech 21)

Week 9: Wake Forest 34, NC State 20 (actual: the Wolfpack 30, Wake Forest 21)

Week 10: NC State 33, Boston College 13 (actual: Boston College 21, NC State 20)

Week 11:  Louisville 20, NC State 13 (actual: Louisville 25, NC State 10)

Week 12: North Carolina 33, NC State 20 (actual: NC State 30, UNC 27)

Ethan McDowell’s prediction

Maryland might be the best five-loss team in the nation. The Terrapins were a few fourth-quarter breaks away from beating Ohio State, and they lost to Big-10 division champions Michigan and Purdue by a combined 9 points.

With that said, Maryland will be missing several major contributors, including second-leading receiver Rakim Jarrett and star cornerback Deonte Banks, who both recently declared for the NFL Draft.

NC State will be a little healthier after finishing up the UNC game deep into the depth chart at some positions, which should help quite a bit. Both MJ Morris and and Ben Finley are practicing under center this week for the Wolfpack and, despite starting the season not expecting to see the field this season, but signal-callers have wins over ranked ACC teams this year and remain solid options at QB for the bowl game.

This will be the Pack’s first opportunity to play in a bowl game since the 2020 loss to Kentucky, and it could be the program’s first bowl win since 2017. After everything that happened before the Holiday Bowl last year, I think we will see an extremely motivated NC State squad.

Most of this group has never won a bowl game, and I think the lack of opt-outs is a clear sign that this group is ready to compete and add a trophy to the Murphy Center. Taulia Tagovailoa and the Maryland offense will make some plays, but they will not be able to move the ball enough against a Wolfpack defense looking to send the seniors out on a high note.

Prediction: The Wolfpack 24, Maryland 17

Previous Predictions:

Week 1: The Wolfpack 38, East Carolina 10 (actual: the Wolfpack 21, East Carolina 20)

Week 2: The Wolfpack 52, Charleston Southern 6 (actual: the Wolfpack 55, Charleston Southern 3)

Week 3: The Wolfpack 35, Texas Tech 20 (actual: the Wolfpack 27, Texas Tech 14)

Week 4: The Wolfpack 52, UConn 6 (actual: the Wolfpack 41, UConn 10)

Week 5: Clemson 28, the Wolfpack 24 (actual: Clemson 30, the Wolfpack 20)

Week 6: The Wolfpack 31, Florida State 20 (actual: the Wolfpack 19, Florida State 17)

Week 7: The Wolfpack 20, Syracuse 17 (actual: Syracuse 24, the Wolfpack 9)

Week 8: The Wolfpack 24, Virginia Tech 6 (actual: the Wolfpack 22, Virginia Tech 21)

Week 9: The Wolfpack 31, Wake Forest 30 (actual: the Wolfpack 30, Wake Forest 21)

Week 10: The Wolfpack 34, Boston College 10 (actual: Boston College 21, the Wolfpack 20)

Week 11:  Louisville 20, the Wolfpack 17 (actual: Louisville 25, the Wolfpack 10)

Week 12: North Carolina 27, NC State 17 (actual: NC State 30, UNC 27)