NC State football game predictions: Northern Illinois

By Ethan McDowell

NC State football returns home for a fourth and pivotal non-conference game this weekend. Northern Illinois, the MAC program that knocked off a No. 5-ranked Notre Dame squad just a few weeks ago, will be in town to face off against the Pack.

The 2-1 Huskies lost to Buffalo in overtime last week, while Clemson blew out NC State in a game that was over by the end of the first quarter. Both schools are looking to rebound off of their losses and, even though NIU is a Group of Five program, there’s plenty of reasons to believe the school will challenge the Wolfpack Saturday afternoon.

Betting markets favor NC State by 6.5 points in this game. The line opened -11.5 in the Pack’s favor before dropping quickly.

The Wolfpack and Huskies will kick off at 12 noon ET on the CW Network. Here are TheWolfpacker.com’s predictions for the non-conference finale.

Ethan McDowell’s prediction for NC State vs. Northern Illinois

NC State heads into this game looking for a bounce-back performance. The Pack faced a similar challenge against Louisiana Tech two weeks ago. Northern Illinois is a much better team than the Bulldogs squad that tested NC State.

The Huskies have a potent rushing attack with an impressive offensive line that will try to wear down NC State up front. On paper, this is not a good matchup for the Wolfpack.

Running back Antario Brown is a 5-10 playmaker, whom NC State absolutely needs to keep contained. He is a tackle-breaking machine and made 16 defenders miss over his past couple of games. Buffalo slowed him down to an extent last week, but NIU still relied on a heavy workload from the senior.

Notre Dame gave up 126 receiving yards to the running back on 2 catches a few weeks ago. He’s averaging 27.6 yards per reception this year and 4.6 yards per carry. NC State struggled to stop Tennessee and Clemson on the ground this year. The Huskies are not nearly as talented as those programs, but they still have the personnel to test the Pack.

Northern Illinois’ top two receivers are Brown and tight end Grayson Barnes. NC State’s secondary has played well in coverage this year, but this passing attack will test outside linebackers Sean Brown and Devon Betty in coverage, setting up an intriguing matchup.

If the Wolfpack defense continues to give up significant yards on first and second down, keeping the Huskies in favorable down and distances, this could be a tough game for the host team. Northern Illinois has dominated time of possession so far this year, and that could be an issue against an NC State offense that has failed to run the ball consistently this year. The Pack will try to control the pace of the game enough to avoid a worn-down defense late in the contest.

Offensively, NC State has shown enough positive improvement to warrant expectations of a small jump in Week 5. But this game starts and likely ends with the defense. A series of competitive practices that put starting roles up for grabs this week should motivate the Pack.

Usually the program responds well with its back against the wall. If the Pack’s culture remains strong enough to endure its two early season defeats, then it should be able to leave Carter-Finley Stadium with a hard-fought third win.

Prediction: NC State 27, Northern Illinois 24

Previous predictions:
NC State 45, Western Carolina 10 (Actual: NC State 38, Western Carolina 21)
Tennessee 41, NC State 28 (Actual: Tennessee 51, NC State 10)
NC State 34, Louisiana Tech 3 (Actual: NC State 30, Louisiana Tech 20)
Clemson 38, NC State 24 (Actual: Clemson 59, NC State 35)

Noah Fleischman’s prediction

This is a game NC State needs — not one it wants. The Wolfpack is reeling from another disappointing loss on a national stage, and Northern Illinois presents an opportunity for NC State to right the ship. 

It opens a three-game homestand at Carter-Finley Stadium. And, quite frankly, the Wolfpack likely needs to walk out of that stretch undefeated to give the season a new tone. 

NC State coach Dave Doeren has talked about competition on the practice field this week. There are plenty of positions up for grabs — no depth chart was released, and the Pack coach doesn’t have his mind made up on who will start. But one thing is for certain, NC State will put the players that want to give maximum effort on the field. 

That will be needed against the Huskies, a gritty team from the MAC that should not be overlooked. They took down Notre Dame on the road this fall, proving that they are more than capable of handling a hostile road environment. 

NC State’s run defense, which was paper-thin at Clemson with 269 rushing yards allowed, including 147 of those in the first half, will be tested. Northern Illinois likes to run the ball. It’s the team’s DNA and it leans on star tailback Antario Brown, who has 241 rushing yards through three games this season. He will be a key test to NC State’s week of preparation, which has been designed to be “tough” after that was an issue against the Tigers.

It will be clear in a hurry whether or not that happened on the practice fields this week. NC State’s run fits, which were the key issue, will be watched under a microscope against Brown and the Huskies. 

But it seems Doeren has his team’s attention — and that should lead to results this week. NC State will find a way to limit the run damage, while allowing freshman quarterback CJ Bailey to go to work and build off his first start at Clemson. He was efficient to start, completing 10 of his first 11 passes at Death Valley. Another step forward this week would be immensely helpful for the Pack. 

Prediction: NC State 30, Northern Illinois 17

Previous predictions:
NC State 47, Western Carolina 3 (Actual: NC State 38, Western Carolina 21)
NC State 38, Tennessee 37 (Actual: Tennessee 51, NC State 10)
NC State 43, Louisiana Tech 10. (Actual: NC State 30, Louisiana Tech 20)
Clemson 35, NC State 20. (Actual: Clemson 59, NC State 35)