NC State football game predictions: UNC

NC State resumes its rivalry with UNC Saturday night. The two teams will play under the lights of Carter-Finley Stadium in front of a sold-out crowd for the program’s senior day and regular season finale.

Both teams stand 8-3 on the season, with the Wolfpack riding a four-game winning streak into its contest with the Tar Heels. NC State leapfrogged past North Carolina in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings. UNC fell out of the top-25, while the Pack climbed to No. 22.

This game puts each program’s strength against the other’s top unit. North Carolina’s elite offense, which paces the ACC in both passing and rushing offense, will go up against the Wolfpack’s lights-out defense that is allowing 20.2 points per game.

Here are TheWolfpacker.com’s predictions for Saturday’s game. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

Ethan McDowell’s prediction for NC State vs. UNC

NC State is one of the ACC’s hottest teams coming into this game, UNC is starting to slip with three ACC losses in its past four conference games.

But that does not really matter in games like this one.

When these two teams meet, throw out the records and any other preconceived notions about either program. Weird things happen in this rivalry, and I think NC State and North Carolina are on a crash course towards another classic matchup.

Quarterback Drake Maye and the Tar Heel offense is going to be hard to stop. They average 514.8 yards per game, scoring 38.1 points per contest. May is a mobile quarterback with elite arm talent and, while the Wolfpack will likely not be able to shut him down completely, I like how the Pack defense matches up.

North Carolina ranks No. 12 in the ACC with 28 sacks allowed this season. NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson loves to blitz, and I think the Wolfpack assistant will find some creative ways to put pressure on the UNC signal caller.

Inside Carter-Finley Stadium this season, NC State has rattled Louisville’s Jack Plummer (2 interceptions), Clemson’s Cade Klubnik (2 interceptions) and Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke (3 interceptions). NC State ranks No. 1 in the ACC with 15 picks and fourth in the conference with 31 sacks.

This is a unit that thrives on disruption and, if it can throw off Maye enough to create a couple of turnovers and a handful of negative plays, then NC State will absolutely keep this game close.

On the other side of the ball, there are now two games of film on Brennan Armstrong back in the Wolfpack’s evolved offense. UNC struggled with 20 missed tackles against Clemson. If the Tar Heels bring a similar defensive effort into Carter-Finley Stadium, then this could be a long day for the visitors. The Wolfpack needs to establish the same physical running game it showed against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, led by Kendrick Raphael, Delbert Mimms III and Armstrong.

If recent history tells us anything, then this game will likely come down to the final minutes, and I am predicting a couple of clutch defensive stops in the fourth quarter will lead NC State to its third-consecutive win over UNC.

Prediction: No. 22 NC State 28, UNC 27

Previous predictions:

NC State 20, Virginia Tech 13 (Actual: NC State 35, Virginia Tech 28)
NC State 17, Wake Forest 9 (Actual: NC State 26, Wake Forest 6)
NC State 27, Miami 24 (Actual: NC State 20, Miami 6)
Clemson 17, NC State 14 (Actual: NC State 24, Clemson 17)
Duke 17, NC State 16 (Actual: Duke 24, NC State 3)
NC State 27, Marshall 13 (Actual: NC State 48, Marshall 41)
NC State 31, Louisville 30 (Actual: Louisville 13, NC State 10)
NC State 31, UVA 13 (Actual: NC State 24, UVA 21)
NC State 45, VMI 0 (Actual: NC State 45, VMI 7)
Notre Dame 27, NC State 20 (Actual: Notre Dame 45, NC State 24)
NC State 24, UConn 10 (Actual: NC State 24, UConn 14)

Noah Fleischman’s prediction

It is rivalry week, and North Carolina is coming to Raleigh for a night game at Carter-Finley Stadium. The sold-out crowd is likely to be one of the best environments of the season as the Wolfpack look to win its third straight over the Tar Heels. 

The line of scrimmage is one place to watch this weekend as the Wolfpack has the fourth-most sacks in the ACC (31, one back from the league lead), while the Tar Heels have allowed the third-most sacks this season with 28. Davin Vann and Red Hibbler pace the Pack with 5.5 sacks each, and they could feast on this Thanksgiving week against North Carolina. 

NC State graduate quarterback Brennan Armstrong has been near-perfect in his last two starts with an almost 70% completion rate, 316 passing yards and 185 rushing yards with six total touchdowns. He also has not had a turnover worthy play in the past two road wins. Now, he will be back in Raleigh for the final time — and the first time since he returned to the starting job. 

With the pass rush rolling, and Armstrong looking to end his ACC career on a high note, the Pack will be able to win its ninth contest of the season on Saturday night. The Wolfpack’s victory would be a feat considering ESPN’s FPI rankings gave NC State a 0.4% chance of winning all five of its final games — but that is a reality with this weekend’s contest at the Carter. 

Prediction: No. 22 NC State 24, North Carolina 13

Previous Predictions:

NC State 21, Virginia Tech 17 (Actual: NC State 35, Virginia Tech 28)
NC State 24, Wake Forest 10 (Actual: NC State 26, Wake Forest 6)
NC State 17, Miami 14. (Actual: NC State 20, Miami 6)
NC State 19, Clemson 13 (Actual: NC State 24, Clemson 17)
NC State 24, Duke 20 (Actual: Duke 24, NC State 3)
NC State 24, Marshall 10 (Actual: NC State 48, Marshall 41)
Louisville 35, NC State 21 (Actual: Louisville 13, NC State 10)
NC State 31, UVA 10 (Actual: NC State 24, UVA 21)
NC State 52, VMI 3 (Actual: NC State 45, VMI 7)