NC State football opponent scouting report: East Carolina

The No. 13-ranked NC State football team opens the 2022 season at East Carolina Saturday afternoon with a noon kickoff on ESPN, immediately following College GameDay.

Here is a full scouting report on East Carolina:

Five East Carolina Players To Watch

Super senior quarterback Holton Ahlers (No. 12)

Ahlers is a hometown hero who chose ECU over NC State coming out of D.H. Conley High in Greenville. With a healthy season, Ahlers is likely to set new school marks for passing yards, rushing yards by a quarterback and total yards. He also will probably break the American Athletic Conference (AAC) records for passing and total yards.

Ahlers is a far-improved quarterback from the one who completed 22 of 39 passes for 168 yards with 1 interception against NC State in 2019. Last season, Ahlers completed at least 60.0 percent of his passes for eight straight games before the regular season finale vs. College Football Playoff-contender Cincinnati. During that stretch, he had 15 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions while throwing for over 300 yards three times.

He is one of just two active quarterbacks to have over 10,000 career passing yards (10,219) and 1,000 rushing yards (1,262).

Redshirt sophomore kicker Owen Daffer (41)

If there is a close game with NC State, East Carolina has a capable kicker. In his debut season, Daffer was named first-team all-conference after making 19 of 23 field goal attempts, including a long of 54 yards that came at Navy in walk-off fashion to secure a 38-35 win as time expired.

Super senior tight end Ryan Jones (No. 4)

Jones may sound familiar to NC State football recruiting followers. He was the No. 7 prospect in the state of North Carolina in the 2017 class and a four-star, according to the On3 Consensus. Jones signed with Oklahoma and started three games as a redshirt freshman in 2018.

After the 2019 season, Jones transferred to ECU and has bulked up into a 6-foot-3, 247-pound difficult matchup at tight end. Jones was selected preseason first-team all-conference after catching 37 passes for 442 yards and 5 touchdowns last season.

Third-year sophomore running back Keaton Mitchell (No. 2)

Ahlers may be the most well-known Pirate player to NC State football fans, but Mitchell may be East Carolina’s most dangerous player on offense.

Last season, Mitchell was named first-team all-conference after rushing 174 times for 1,132 yards and 6 touchdowns. That is the third highest total for a single season in East Carolina history behind a pair of players who made it to the NFL (Leonard Henry and Chris Johnson).

Mitchell ranked ninth nationally with an average of 6.5 yards per rush. Five touchdown runs of at least 50 yards helped his cause.

Fourth-year junior cornerback Malik Fleming (No. 1)

Fleming is entering his third season as a starter for East Carolina and was selected preseason first-team All-AAC by Phil Steele and second-team by the league’s sportswriters and Athlon. Last season, Fleming teamed with Ja’Quan McMillian to give East Carolina a potent cornerback duo. McMillian left for the NFL and nearly made the Denver Broncos as an undrafted free agent.

Fleming had 9 pass breakups and a pair of interceptions a year ago.

What To Watch For From East Carolina Against NC State Football

1. A potentially strong running game: Ahlers is a 230-pound downhill runner as a dual-threat quarterback and has potentially one of the better running backs in the country in Mitchell in the backfield with him.

Furthermore, Mitchell’s backup, third-year sophomore Rahjai Harris, ran for 583 yards himself last season.

Last season, ECU was 64th nationally out of 130 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams in rushing yards per game, but returning all the key players behind an offensive line that will have four starters weighing at least 316 pounds should allow for noticeable improvement.

East Carolina will certainly try to run the football on NC State. In all but one game last year, the Pirates had at least 33 carries.

2. An opportunistic defense: Ball security will be a priority for NC State. The Pirates defensively gave up yards last season, ranking 79th among FBS teams in yards-per-game allowed. However, ECU was also tied for 25th nationally in turnovers gained with 22— 15 interceptions and 7 fumble recoveries.

3. A motivated team: Both NC State and East Carolina have a lot to play for Saturday. ECU will be playing in front of what will surely be a raucous home crowd at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. Although East Carolina head coach Mike Houston downplayed the significance of avenging a 34-6 NC State win over the Pirates in 2019, the fact that the last two times the two teams played NC State has won by a combined score of 89-9 will not be lost on the Pirates either.

East Carolina is also protecting home turf. The Pirates have not often hosted NC State football, but, when they do, ECU is 3-1 against the Pack.

Three Keys To The Game For NC State Football

1. Stop the run: There is a stark difference in East Carolina’s rushing outputs during wins and losses in the 2021 season. When the Pirates were victorious, ECU rushed for an average of 209.43 yards. When East Carolina lost, that production slipped to 95.8 yards.

In three of the five ECU losses, the Pirates were held under 100 yards rushing and never gained more than 141 yards while averaging 3.62 yards or less per carry in each contest. East Carolina ran for at least 150 yards in all seven of the wins while averaging over 4.0 yards per rush in all but one of those games.

Knowing that East Carolina will want to run the football, stopping the ground game is a must for the NC State defense.

2. Protect the football: East Carolina does not have a big front seven. The projected four starters on the front weigh 232, 257, 275 and 299 pounds, respectively. Additionally, one of the program’s star corners left for the NFL.

The unit gave up yards last year, and NC State should move the football effectively provided the Pack avoids self-inflicted errors, mainly turnovers.

3. Withstand the ECU adrenaline rush: On paper, East Carolina has a nice football team. The Pirates were bowl-eligible last season and should be back in the postseason in 2022.

ECU has had an entire offseason to prepare for this game, which amounts to a Super Bowl of sorts for the Pirates. Expect East Carolina to pull out all the stops against NC State early. At some point, the hope for NC State is that the Pack’s more talented roster will overwhelm ECU, but that life would be easier if East Carolina is not allowed to start fast.

Three Numbers Of Note For NC State Football Vs. East Carolina

1 Win in Greenville in four trips for NC State football, which came in 2007 when the 1-5 Pack was an underdog to 4-2 East Carolina

11.5 The spread on the betting line in NC State’s favor

100 Percent of rushing from East Carolina’s 2021 season returning.