NC State football opponent scouting report: North Carolina

The NC State football team will be playing both a rivalry game and the regular season finale when it travels to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina at Kenan Stadium this Friday.

NC State is 7-4 overall and 3-4 in the ACC, while the Heels are 9-2 and 6-1. UNC has clinched the Coastal Division and will play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m., and the game can be seen on ABC.

Here is a full scouting report on North Carolina:

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Five North Carolina Players To Watch

Third-year sophomore wide receiver Josh Downs (No. 11)

Despite missing two games earlier in the season, Downs (son of former NC State running back Gary Downs) leads the ACC and is tied for third nationally with 11 touchdown catches. He is also tops in the ACC in receptions (77) and 100-yard receiving games (5).

Downs has 22 career touchdowns, needing three more to tie the school record. Last season, he had a stretch of eight straight games with a scoring reception.

The potential All-American and possible high NFL Draft pick should he choose to leave early after this season needs 153 more yards to reach 1,000 for the year and is averaging 105.9 yards receiving per game.

He also doubles as a dangerous punt returner, averaging 17.8 yards per runback.

Sophomore linebacker Power Echols (No. 23)

While the North Carolina defense has struggled, at times mightily, this season, the Heels have received good linebacker play.

Echols is a Charlotte native who was a NC State recruiting target. He has lived up to the high expectations, making 79 tackles, including 4.5 for loss and 2 sacks this year. Echols also has a team-best 6 quarterback hurries.

Junior linebacker Cedric Gray (No. 33)

Gray is the other half of UNC’s strong linebacker duo in the 4-2-5 alignment that defensive coordinator Gene Chizik utilizes. Gray has team-highs of 108 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss and 2 forced fumbles. He is also tied for the most interceptions on the North Carolina defense (2), tied for second on most quarterback hurries (3) and is fourth in pass breakups (4)

Super senior receiver Antoine Green (No. 3)

One of the reasons why North Carolina’s passing attack is even better despite losing NFL quarterback Sam Howell after last season is Green’s emergence as a strong second receiving option. A year ago, Downs was the only real receiving threat in the offense.

Green has missed three games with injuries, including last Saturday’s loss to Georgia Tech, but he reportedly returned to practice Monday and is expected to play Friday vs. NC State. In the seven contests that Green has played, he has 30 catches for 678 yards and 6 touchdowns and is averaging 96.9 yards receiving per game.

He is a big-play threat with an ACC-high 5 catches of 50 yards or more, and he leads the nation among wideouts with at least 25 receptions in yards per grab (22.6).

The Downs/Green combination has the fifth most touchdown catches (17) at the Power Five level

Redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Maye (10)

The good news for NC State and other ACC teams is that they may only have to face Maye twice. Given what the 6-foot-4.5, 220-pounder has shown his rookie season, odds are he will be a high first-round NFL Draft pick in a year’s time.

Maye vaulted himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation with eye-popping production. He has completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 3,412 yards and 34 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions. He also leads UNC with 584 rushing yards and has ran for 5 scores.

Maye leads the nation in total offense (382.8 yards per game), is second in passing yards pre game (328.5), is tied for third in throwing touchdowns and fourth in passing efficiency (173.1). His 39 total scores are third among Power Five players and fifth overall nationally.

Only Kenny Pickett, a Heisman finalist last season for Pittsburgh, has thrown for more touchdowns through 11 games in a season in ACC history. Pickett had 36 at this point a year ago. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has Maye as its highest graded quarterback at the Power Five level (92.8).

What To Watch For From North Carolina Against NC State Football

1. An elite passing offense. Maye leads a passing attack that is sixth nationally and tops in the ACC in passing yards per game (328.9). The only other offense in the conference that averages over 300 yards per game throwing is Wake Forest (311.6).

The emergence of Green plus a strong tight end group led by fourth-year redshirt sophomore Kamari Morales (22 catches for 267 yards and 4 scores) has helped. NC State coach Dave Doeren also noted during his Monday press conference that Maye releases the ball quicker than Howell.

2. Suspect line play: A year ago UNC was 128th out of 130 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams in sacks per game allowed at 3.77. This year that number is down to 2.91, but that is still tied for 105th in the country. This is despite having two good running quarterbacks to avoid the rush in both Howell and Maye.

UNC’s average of 4.53 yards per carry is tied for 52nd in the country.

On the other side of the football, only nine teams nationally in the FBS level have fewer sacks per game than North Carolina, and just Minnesota has fewer tackles for loss.

3. A bend but don’t break defense. NC State has a struggling offense, but even teams that do not move the football consistently well have found some success against UNC’s defense, with the exception of Virginia Tech.

The Heels are last in the ACC and 122nd nationally in yards per game allowed (452.9). That is despite playing five out of 10 games against FBS teams with offenses that rank below 75th nationally in yards per contest. UNC also hosted a Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) team in the season opener and will not face a single top-25 offense in yards per game until potentially a bowl game.

However, North Carolina is better in the most important category: points allowed. Overall, UNC gives up 30.4 points per contest. That number is skewed by giving up 61 points in a win at Appalachian State. In the other 10 games, the average is 27.3 points, which would be tied for 78th nationally.

Three Keys To The Game For NC State Football

1. Contain Maye’s run game. Maye has completed at least 63.3 percent on his passes in 9 games, all wins. . He connected on 16 of 30 passes (53.3 percent) vs. Georgia Tech and 17 of 32 (53.1 percent) against Notre Dame, both losses.

In those two games, Maye ran 14 times for 13 yards against the Yellow Jackets and had 13 carries for 36 yards on the Irish. Those are the only two Power Five contests where Maye averaged less than 3.7 yards per rush and was held under 50 yards rushing.

NC State has had notable issues containing quarterback runs this year, but taking away Maye’s running game has proven to be the most successful defense against him.

2. Use your experience. North Carolina is 9-2 for a variety of reasons. The Heels don’t typically defend well and are average running the football. UNC has also gone 6-1 in games decided by one possession while playing against a schedule that, according to the Sagarin ratings, is the sixth weakest among the 64 Power Five conference-affiliated teams.

There is no denying the bonafides of the North Carolina passing attack. The Heels have high-caliber NFL talent at quarterback, receiver and possibly tight end.

NC State, however, has faced three teams with passing offenses ranked in the top 20 nationally: Wake Forest (11th), Texas Tech (15th) and East Carolina (19th). The results were mixed, with the Demon Deacons notably having a season-high for Wake in passing yards against the Pack.

But if NC State can use those games as learning experiences, perhaps the defense can become one of the few teams to slow down Maye and company.

3. Score touchdowns in the red zone. With the expectation that third-year redshirt freshman Ben Finley will become the fourth different quarterback to start this season for the Wolfpack, winning a shootout with North Carolina is unrealistic.

Only once all season against Power Five opposition has NC State even scored 30 points. To repeat the formula of Georgia Tech, which beat UNC 21-17, the Pack needs to control possession with a keep-away offense that scores touchdowns when reaching the red zone.

NC State is tied for 109th in the nation, scoring TDs on just 50.0 percent of red zone trips, but conversely only Arizona allows touchdowns in the red zone at a higher rate than North Carolina at the FBS level.

Three Numbers Of Note For NC State Football Vs. North Carolina

5-4 — NC State head coach Dave Doeren’s record vs. UNC, including 3-1 in Chapel Hill

13-9 — NC State’s record in the rivalry since 2000, including 7-4 in Chapel Hill

6.5 — Points North Carolina is favored by as of Wednesday