NC State football opponent scouting report: UConn

The Pack is on the road Thursday at Connecticut for a 7:30 kickoff on CBS Sports Network. The Huskies were 1-4 last season after a lopsided 41-10 loss to the Wolfpack in Raleigh a year ago, but rebounded to win 5 of 6 and qualify for a bowl game before ending the year 6-7.

Here is a full scouting report on Connecticut:

Five Connecticut Players To Watch

Senior quarterback Joe Fagnano (No. 2)

Last week, UConn ended a three-player battle for the starting quarterback job by announcing that Fagnano, a starter from Maine, had won the job. Among the players Fagnano beat out were last year’s first-string QB against NC State, Zion Turner, who is now listed third on the depth chart.

Fagnano previously quarterbacked with UConn offensive coordinator Nick Charlton in 2021 when Charlton was Maine’s head coach. Fagnano was an all-conference performer in the shortened 2021 season. Last fall, he completed 208 of 364 passes for 2,231 yards and 15 touchdowns with just six picks in 11 games. The 6-foot-3, 225-pounder also rushed for 296 yards and three scores.

Fifth-year senior guard Christian Haynes (No. 64)

One of the strengths of the Huskies, on paper, is its offensive line, and Haynes is the headliner. The starter at right guard was named an All-American last year by Sporting News and Associated Press, and has garnered multiple preseason All-American mentions for 2023, including from Athlon and Phil Steele. Haynes is on the watchlist for the Outland Trophy, given annually to college football’s top interior lineman.

Against NC State last season, Haynes graded out at 75.1 according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Around 64.0 is considered an average score. That was the top grade by a UConn player on offense against the Pack.

Junior running back Devontae Houston (No. 1)

One of the bigger reasons for UConn’s turnaround last year was Houston. Against NC State, he ran eight times for 38 yards and caught three passes for 22 yards. That earned him a more prominent role going forward, and he responded with back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts in wins over Fresno State at home and Florida International on the road.

Houston also went over 80 yards rushing against Massachusetts and Army, and finished the year with 578 rushing yards on just 84 carries, an impressive average of 6.9 yards per rush. Houston has big-play potential, twice breaking off runs of over 50 yards.

Senior linebacker Jackson Mitchell (No. 8)

In 2019, Mitchell led all true freshmen nationally with an average of 6.5 tackles per game. Connecticut did not play football in 2020 due to the pandemic, but Mitchell paced the Huskies with 120 tackles in the return season of 2021.

He continued his tackling-machine ways with 140 hits last fall, earning him a spot on the Butkus Award semifinalists list. That was the sixth most tackles in a single season in UConn history, and he led the country with five fumble recoveries.

Senior defensive end Eric Watts (No. 95)

The 6-foot-5.5, 277-pounder has played himself onto NFL radars after piling up 10 tackles for loss and seven sacks a season ago. Watts was selected to the preseason watch list for the Reese’s Senior Bowl and East-West Shrine Bowl.

Watts, who blocked a pair of field goals last year, came up large in a pair of noteworthy home wins for UConn . He had 2.5 sacks in an upset over visiting Boston College and another 1.5 hits on the quarterback in the victory over No. 19 Liberty.

What To Watch For From Connecticut Against NC State Football

1. A physical, run-led attack: Only four teams at the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS), three of whom are the service academies that operate almost run-exclusive, triple-option offenses, had less passing yards per game than UConn in 2022.

The unit that Connecticut boasts as arguably its most impressive credentials is the offensive line. In addition to Haynes, redshirt junior left tackle Valentin Senn and fifth-year senior left guard Noel Ofori-Nyadu both are on the East-West Shrine Bowl watch list. All three started against NC State last year, and each graded out at least 70.3 per PFF.

UConn’s 525 rushing attempts were tied for 28th most in 2022 among 131 FBS teams. In addition to Houston, sophomore Victor Rosa led the Huskies with 677 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Fagnano is not the dual threat at quarterback that Turner posed last year, so the running game will likely rely on the physicality of the line.

2. A veteran squad: According to stats compiled by ESPN.com’s analytical guru Bill Connelly, the Huskies boast the sixth highest overall returning production in the FBS, more than any opponent on the NC State football schedule. Eighty-nine percent of the offense is back, second highest in the nation.

3. A tougher opponent than NC State saw a year ago: Some of Connecticut’s late-season run in 2022 was padding wins against soft opponents, but at home UConn beat a 10-win Fresno State squad that finished the year ranked, a Liberty team that was ranked at the time and a Power Five opponent in Boston College that proceeded to beat NC State in Carter-Finley Stadium.

Connecticut went 5-1 at home last season, only losing to Syracuse.

Three Keys To The Game For NC State Football

1. Surprise them: NC State instituted a change of offenses during the offseason, hiring Robert Anae as the coordinator. Anae spent last year on the sidelines at Syracuse, his first and only season with the Orange.

Anae helped Syracuse set off some offensive fireworks to start the 2022 campaign, including scoring 48 points on the road at UConn in Week Two. For the first three weeks of the year, which included wins over Louisville and Purdue, the Orange averaged 37.0 points per game. Syracuse would eventually start 6-0, including a 24-9 win over NC State, before losing five straight. The first four of the defeats showed teams had potentially figured some of Anae’s offense out. Syracuse failed to score more than 24 points in those four losses, and twice were held in single digits.

Connecticut has little to prep for an Anae offense. The Pack should use that to its advantage.

2. Win the line of scrimmage: Connecticut is not without question marks on the offensive line, with new starters at center and right tackle, but UConn will offer an early test for NC State’s defensive front, which has earned strong reviews in preseason camp.

Subsequently, NC State’s banged up offensive line will be tasked with allowing Anae’s offense a chance to operate.

3. Protect the football: Few things can spark momentum for a home underdog like turnovers, and Connecticut was good at forcing them a season ago. The Huskies gained 22 last year, tying NC State among others, for the 22nd most at the FBS level.

In UConn’s six wins last fall, the Huskies had a plus-1.50 turnover margin per game and gained an average of 2.5 giveaways per contest. In the seven defeats, opponents turned it over just six times total, and Connecticut was minus-1.14 per game.

Three Numbers Of Note For NC State Football Vs. Connecticut

9-1 Dave Doeren’s record in season openers as head coach for NC State football.

14.5 The point spread on the betting line in NC State’s favor.

3 Margin of victory the only prior time NC State has played at UConn, a 10-7 win in 2012.