NC State football game predictions: Holiday Bowl vs. UCLA

NC State football can secure its second 10-win season in school history, but first it must get through UCLA to pull that off.

The two teams meet Dec. 28 in the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl at Petco Park in San Diego. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. and the game will be televised on Fox.

NC State enters the contest 9-3 overall, including a 6-2 record in the ACC. The Pack is ranked No. 18 in the major polls.

UCLA was also ranked at one point this year and after three straight wins to end the regular season comes in with an 8-4 overall mark and 6-3 record in the Pac-12

NC State is favored (very) slightly. Will the Pack prevail?

The Wolfpacker staff makes its predictions.

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Matt Carter

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First, let’s hope there is a game. Wednesday’s announcement that Texas A&M would not be able to play in its Gator Bowl contest against Wake Forest has left many feeling spooked.

Assuming the game happens, my next thought turns to the offense.

UCLA is one of the better teams the NC State football defense is going to face this season. The Pack has been strong all season on that side of the football, aside from showing a few cracks in the win over UNC to end the regular season.

Even its game against Wake Forest held up well relative to what the Demon Deacons did in other contests.

The Bruins will score some points. The realistic goal for the Pack would be to hold them under four touchdowns.

Then offensively, 30 points is the magic number. Teams that score that many on the Bruins are 4-1.

The Wolfpack’s offense has been very consistent in seven straight ACC games, scoring from 27-30 points in six of them. Defensive and special teams scores have added to that total.

The one exception was when the offense accounted for 35 points vs. Wake Forest while a kickoff return for a score by sophomore running back Zonovan “Bam” Knight padded the total.

The hunch here is the offense comes through and gets 31 points, and NC State finds a defensive touchdown for an exclamation point in game that looks like a toss-up on paper.

Matt Carter’s prediction: NC State 38, UCLA 30.

Previous predictions:

Week 1: NC State 41, South Florida 21 (actual: NC State 45-0)

Week 2: NC State 33, Mississippi State 30 (actual: Mississippi State 24-10)

Week 3: NC State 42, Furman 6 (actual: NC State 45-7)

Week 4: Clemson 21, NC State 9 (actual: NC State 27-21)

Week 5: NC State 38, Louisiana Tech 17 (actual: NC State 34-27)

Week 6: NC State 28, Boston College 24 (actual: NC State 33-7)

Week 7: NC State 31, Miami 23 (actual: Miami 31-30)

Week 8: NC State 30, Louisville 17 (actual: NC State 28-13)

Week 9: NC State 27, Florida State 17 (actual: NC State 28-14)

Week 10: NC State 33, Wake Forest 31 (actual: Wake Forest 45-42)

Week 11: NC State 23, Syracuse 17 (actual: NC State 41-17)

Week 12: NC State 34, UNC 24 (actual: NC State 34-30)

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Justin H. Williams

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Vegas considers NC State a slight favorite, ranging from 1 to 1.5 points, against UCLA in the Holiday Bowl. In other words, this one is essentially a pick ’em. 

For now, neither squad has announced any opt-outs. In the Pack’s case, we know it’s possible that left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, a projected top-10 pick in the NFL Draft, will sit out for the bowl game. Ekwonu hasn’t announced this publicly, but considering the circumstances, it would not be surprising to see him on the sideline rather than the field. 

Other than Ekwonu, there aren’t any other players that have a non-injury-related reason to sit out. The Bruins may or may not have someone announce they’re sitting out between now and the bowl game, but for the sake of this prediction, let’s assume they’re at full strength. 

UCLA’s regular-season resume is pretty similar to NC State’s. The Bruins’ only four losses came against quality opponents (Fresno State, Arizona State, Oregon and Utah). And UCLA’s highest-quality win came early in the season at home against LSU, a team that significantly underperformed this year. 

From a matchup perspective, this will be a strength-on-strength game. The Bruins are best at running the football (215.1 yards per game, 15th in FBS), and the Pack’s strength is stopping the run (124.0 yards allowed per game, 24th in FBS).

Considering all else is seemingly even, this bowl game comes down to want-to and execution. From the NC State perspective, it’s hard to expect any less than a fired-up Wolfpack squad looking to win a bowl game with as many stakes for the program as a non-New Year’s Six Bowl can afford. 

A win would give the Pack its 10th win this season, something the program has only done once (2002 with Philip Rivers at quarterback). 

It would also give head coach Dave Doeren a quality out-of-conference win for the first time since beating Arizona State in the 2018 Sun Bowl. Since then, the Pack is 0-4 against Power Five opponents outside of the ACC. 

But most importantly, it would give NC State plenty of momentum entering an offseason leading to what could be one of the most-anticipated seasons in program history. With essentially everyone coming back in 2022, this will be an amped-up and near full-force NC State team taking the field at Petco Park. 

Justin Williams’ prediction: NC State 38, UCLA 31.

Previous predictions:

Week 1: NC State 41, South Florida 16 (actual: NC State 45-0)

Week 2: NC State 38, Mississippi State 28 (actual: Mississippi State 24-10)

Week 3: NC State 48, Furman 16 (actual: NC State 45-7)

Week 4: Clemson 20, NC State 16 (actual: NC State 27-21)

Week 5: NC State 49, Louisiana Tech 22 (actual: NC State 34-27)

Week 6: NC State 27, Boston College 20 (actual: NC State 33-7)

Week 7: NC State 34, Miami 23 (actual: Miami 31-30)

Week 8: NC State 38, Louisville 33 (actual: NC State 28-13)

Week 9: NC State 30, Florida State 20 (actual: NC State 28-14)

Week 10: NC State 38, Wake Forest 30 (actual: Wake Forest 45-42)

Week 11: NC State 34 Syracuse 23 (actual: NC State 41-17)

Week 12: NC State 34, North Carolina 30 (actual: NC State 34-30)

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