NC State football predictions: Game 1 at UConn

NC State football kicks off its 2023 season Thursday, Aug. 31 on the road against UConn. After finishing the 2022 season 8-5, the Wolfpack has a chance to start 1-0 for the sixth consecutive year.

Connecticut lost to NC State last year but ended up bowl-eligible with a 6-7 record following steady improvement throughout the fall. The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. EST and will be broadcast on CBS Sports Network.

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Here are TheWolfpacker.com’s staff predictions for this weekend:

Matt Carter’s prediction for NC State football at UConn

As I read through the thread on the ACC Pick ’em for Week 1, many of the subscribers to the message board do not seem to fear a repeat of the opener from last season despite some striking similarities.

In 2022, East Carolina was hosting NC State with the Pack favored by 12.5 points against a mid-major that went 7-5 the prior year. (The Pirates’ postseason game vs. Boston College in the Military Bowl was canceled). The most recent time NC State and ECU had met was the 2019 opener, when the Pack crushed the Pirates in Raleigh, 34-6.

However, that 7-5 mark for ECU in 2021 represented a turnaround from having gone a combined 16-41 in the prior five years, never winning more than four games in a season.

In 2023, UConn is hosting NC State with the Pack favored by 14.5 points against a mid-major team that went 6-6 before losing to Marshall in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. The most recent time the Pack and Huskies met was just last year in Raleigh, when NC State was up 31-3 at halftime and won 41-10.

However, that 6-6 record for UConn represented a turnaround from going a combined 10-50 in the prior five seasons played (the Huskies canceled its 2021 season during the COVID-19 pandemic).

I’m proud of the subscribers for not caving to recency bias. I think this Connecticut squad has some nice pieces and is trending in the right direction after hiring former NFL and UCLA head coach Jim Mora, but the Huskies are not as good, on paper, as East Carolina was last year.

That Pirates team was quarterbacked by an accomplished starter in Holton Ahlers who until Tuesday was in a NFL training camp. UConn does not have, on paper, that type of signal-caller. And that ECU game a year ago would not have been so tight, a 21-20 nail-biter for the Pack, had NC State not failed on a pair of goal-line situations in the fourth quarter to put away a game that it led 21-7 at halftime.

The prediction here is that the NC State football season gets off to a strong start.

Prediction: NC State 38, UConn 14

Ethan McDowell’s prediction

Last year, I projected a blowout season-opening win over East Carolina— a game that NC State won in part thanks to a last-second missed kick by the Pirates. This score prediction might be a bit of recency bias, but it is important to temper expectations in Week 1.

NC State will debut its new offensive scheme Thursday, and it is unrealistic to expect perfection from a unit with so many new faces and key contributors. The Pack could generate a few more explosive plays this week. Robert Anae’s system is designed to help engineer them, but this is the season opener, so do not be surprised by a few extra pre-snap penalties and maybe a turnover or two.

With that said, I believe NC State will control this game throughout. The defense is too talented and experienced to let a mostly one-dimensional offense pick up much traction, and the Wolfpack offense will likely have some surprises to show off on the road.

Connecticut has a solid offensive line, so its showdown with NC State’s defensive front, a unit that received plenty of hype during fall camp will be one of the key position battles to watch. As long as the Wolfpack handles the Huskies’ physical rushing attack led by junior Devontae Houston and sophomore Victor Rosa at running back, NC State should be in good shape.

Do not expect a blowout of the same scale as last year’s 41-10 rout of UConn, but NC State should prove it is the better team early in the season opener and generate some positive momentum heading into a massive matchup with Notre Dame.

Prediction: NC State 24, UConn 10