NC State football predictions: Tennessee

By Ethan McDowell

No. 24 NC State football travels to Charlotte this weekend for a ranked showdown against No. 14 Tennessee — an SEC foe that started its season at an electric pace. This is the marquee non-conference game for both teams.

The Wolfpack and Volunteers kicked off their respective seasons with a win over an FCS foe. Tennessee beat Chattanooga by 66, and NC State left Carter-Finley Stadium with a 17-point victory over Western Carolina.

With a couple of days until kickoff, the Pack sits as an 8.5-point underdog to its neighbor-state opponent. They will meet in Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET in the Duke’s Mayo Classic. ABC will broadcast the game.

Here are TheWolfpacker.com’s predictions for this neutral site top-25 clash.

Ethan McDowell’s prediction for NC State vs. Tennessee

NC State holds a 14-17-2 record in Charlotte over the past 124 years. The Pack has not won in the Queen City since defeating Louisville there in 2011. In that time, the program has played two SEC opponents in the Panthers’ stadium and gave up an average of 43 points.

Those results have no influence on how Saturday’s prime-time showdown will unfold, but NC State will have to play a near-perfect game to win this one. Tennessee might be the best team this program has faced in the past two seasons, and the only real competition is Clemson in 2022 and Notre Dame in 2023.

The Wolfpack lost both of those contests, and the Volunteers sit in a similar tier — with Edge James Pearce Jr., a projected top pick in the NFL Draft, and Heisman hopeful redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava leading the way.

When NC State takes the field Saturday night, it has the opportunity to make a serious statement against an SEC program with a star-studded group of recruits watching from the stands and the bright spotlight of an ABC broadcast beaming down on this team.

I fully believe this is a team that can win 10 games and challenge for an ACC title. But, based on what NC State showed against Western Carolina, this squad does not look ready to take down a program like Tennessee yet. The Wolfpack eventually wore down the Catamount defensive front last week but, leading up to that decisive fourth quarter, the program averaged 3.4 yards per carry. Tennessee’s extremely deep and very talented defensive line poses a much more imposing challenge.

If NC State cannot run the ball Saturday, it will be very difficult to control the tempo of the game enough to keep the defense energized enough to keep up with Tennessee’s rapid offense. This game feels similar to last season’s showdown with Notre Dame. NC State has the talent and coaching to keep this close for three quarters, but Tennessee’s offense might end up being too much for a Pack defense that is still meshing with seven new starters.

To prove me wrong, NC State will need to disrupt Iamaleava with pressure defensively, limit explosive plays in the rushing attack and keep the defense off the field for long drives. Offensively, quarterback Grayson McCall needs to show improved accuracy from the Western Carolina win, last week’s pass blocking needs to carry over and the Pack needs a consistent rushing attack.

Everything could come together for the program Saturday, resulting in a season-defining win, but NC State’s Week 1 performance does not give me enough confidence to predict a victory here.

Prediction: Tennessee 41, NC State 28

Previous predictions:

NC State 45, Western Carolina 10 (Actual: NC State 38, Western Carolina 21)

Noah Fleischman’s prediction

This game has been circled on a lot of calendars ever since it was announced last year. Tennessee is a game that NC State would have trouble scheduling to play at Carter-Finley Stadium, but a neutral site game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte is something Wolfpack fans have been excited about. 

It’s going to be a pivotal game for the Wolfpack. The Duke’s Mayo Classic will have key postseason implications, helping either team build a solid at-large resume for the College Football Playoff committee. 

But for NC State, this is bigger than just a game. It has recruiting implications — more than a dozen high-priority recruits will be in the crowd — and it could help the Pack fan base continue its surge behind the team this fall. 

Although it is a crucial game for NC State, it will not come easy. Tennessee boasts one of the best offenses and defensive lines that the Wolfpack will face the entire season. It is a challenging test for the Pack. A victory would likely signal that an ACC Championship Game appearance is possible. But in order to win this one, NC State might need to play as near perfect of a game as it can.

That’s possible for this revamped offense. Kevin “KC” Concepcion could solidify himself as one of the best young wideouts in the country with a 100-yard performance against the Volunteers. This is a game in which he is more than capable of doing that — and tying Torry Holt’s multi-touchdown career game record (7). I’ll say he’ll have another two-plus score effort to help propel the offense past the Volunteers, but it will come down to a game-winning kick from Kanoah Vinesett to get the job done. 

Prediction: NC State 38, Tennessee 37. 

Previous predictions: 

NC State 47, Western Carolina 3. (Actual: NC State 38, Western Carolina 21)