NC State football opponent scouting report: Wake Forest

NC State football is playing a consequential ACC football game this Saturday at Wake Forest.

The Wolfpack is No. 16 in the updated College Football Playoff poll while Wake Forest is No. 11. The Demon Deacons stand atop the Atlantic Division with a 5-0 conference record while NC State is 4-1. The winner of the 7:30 p.m. game on ACC Network will fully control its destiny in the Atlantic.

WFU is 8-1 overall after suffering its first loss of the season a week ago, a 58-55 shutout at UNC in an unusual non-conference game during which the Demon Deacons blew an 18-point second-half advantage.

Here is a full scouting report on Wake Forest:

Five Wake Forest Players To Watch

Redshirt sophomore quarterback Sam Hartman (No. 10)

The next touchdown pass that Hartman throws will break a tie with Riley Skinner for the most scoring tosses in Wake Forest school history. Considering that Hartman has two more years of eligibility potentially left, Hartman will probably leave Wake having obliterated that mark.

His 27 touchdown passes this year is just two off of John Wolford’s school record for a single season. Twice this fall Hartman has thrown five scoring tosses in a game (at Army and at UNC).

Overall this year, Hartman has completed 188 of 301 passes (62.5 percent) for 2,873 yards and only five picks while compiling a QB rating of 168.9.

In the ACC, Hartman ranks second in efficiency rating, is tied for second in touchdown throws, third in passing yards and eighth in completion percentage.

Redshirt senior linebacker Luke Masterson (No. 12)

Masterson has started multiple games every season since he was a redshirt freshman in 2017, and he elected to take advantage of the NCAA freezing eligibility last fall to be a super senior in 2021.

Thus far this season, Masterson leads the Deacons in tackles with 54, and that includes six for loss and 2.5 sacks. He has also forced a fumble.

Masterson began his career as a safety before bulking his 6-foot-2 frame up into a 231-pound linebacker.

Redshirt sophomore receiver A.T. Perry (No. 9)

The breakout star this year for Wake Forest’s offense has been Perry, who turned flashes in 2020 into big-time production in 2021.

The 6-foot-5, 206-pounder has 42 receptions for 845 yards and 10 touchdowns thus far this year. He has five 100-yard receiving games this season and is working on an active streak of four in a row.

Perry needs two more touchdown catches to tie the 41-year-old school record set by Kenny Duckett for a single season. His 10 scoring receptions are second in the ACC, and he ranks second in yards per catch (20.1), sixth in receiving yards and 11th in receptions per game (4.7).

Redshirt junior receiver Jaquarii Roberson (No. 5)

Roberson was last year’s breakout player on offense, and now he teams with Perry and slot receiver Taylor Morin, a redshirt freshman, to form one of the top receiving corps in the country.

Roberson was second-team All-ACC by Phil Steele a season ago when he caught 62 passes for 926 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s already matched his scoring haul from 2020 on 50 catches for 848 yards in nine games this season.

He is sixth in the ACC in catches per game at 5.6 and fifth in receiving yards. Roberson is tied for fourth in touchdown catches.

In 2020, Roberson had five 100-yard receiving games, ending the year with four in a row. This season he has added four more, all coming within the last five contests.

Junior linebacker Ryan Smenda Jr. (No. 5)

Smenda is another veteran on the Wake Forest defense. He is now a three-year starter and has 186 career tackles.

In 2019, Smenda led the Deacons in tackles, and last year he was third on the squad. Through nine games this year, Smenda is second with 49 hits.

He is also dangerous around the football, having forced three fumbles thus far this year. That is second most in the ACC.

What To Watch For From Wake Forest Against NC State Football

1. An explosive offense: Wake Forest ranks sixth nationally at the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) in yards per game at 508.7. Its 6.82 yards per play is tied for 10th.

The strength of the attack is a passing game behind one of the ACC’s best quarterbacks in Hartman and one of the top receiving corps in the country. The Demon Deacons are 11th nationally in passing yards per game at 321.1, 12th in passing efficiency at 163.94 and 30th in passing attempts per game at 34.6.

It is a big-play attack, too.

The Demon Deacons average 9.3 yards per pass attempt, which is tied for seventh in the FBS. Wake Forest has 15 passing plays that have gone for at least 40 yards, tied for second most in the country and three more than any other team in the ACC.

2. Make winning plays: Turnovers and special teams are often two areas that can make or break a team. In both, Wake Forest is outstanding.

The Demon Deacons have forced 12 fumbles this year, tied for seventh most in the country. Overall, opponents have put it on the ground against WFU 15 times, and Wake has recovered 10 of them. That is the most fumble recoveries of any team in the ACC and tied for fifth nationally.

Wake Forest has also added eight interceptions. The 18 collective turnovers gained is tied for 12th in the country.

But gaining turnovers is half the story. Wake Forest has turned it over just nine times (tied for 22nd fewest in the nation), and has a 2-to-1 turnover margin that is tied for seventh best in the country.

Wake additionally has a tremendously accurate kicker. Junior Nick Sciba is a two-time semifinalist for the Lou Groza Award, given to college football’s best kicker, and has made 72 of 80 field goal attempts, or 90.0 percent, the top career mark for all active college kickers.

3. A suspect defense: The Deacons are 105th out of 130 teams in the FBS in total yards allowed per game at 435.4, and its 5.92 yards per play given up is 94th.

Only Virginia in the ACC and eight other teams nationally have allowed more rushing yards per game than Wake’s 216.1, and the 4.92 yards per carry surrendered is 110th in the FBS.

The game logs reveal some big numbers allowed: Virginia threw for 407 yards and had 506 yards total offense; Louisville ran for 213 yards and threw for 309 more; Syracuse had 354 rushing yards and 514 overall; Army ran for 416 yards and compiled 595 overall; and UNC ran for 330 yards and finished with 546 total yards.

Three Keys To The Game For NC State Football

1. Score: It’s not a good Wake Forest defense.

It would be tempting to say NC State needs to emphasize running the football, but teams have also thrown with success on the Deacons, who may have suffered a costly injury in its secondary when Caelen Carson was hurt in the loss at UNC. Carson has two interceptions this year.

Much of Wake’s run defense issues have come against trying to stop teams with an aggressive quarterback run game, which NC State does not include.

That means NC State needs to do what it does best and do it well to the maximum, because Wake Forest will score points. The Pack’s offense has accounted for 30 or fewer points in its last four games, and it’ll need more than that Saturday.

2. Limit Wake Forest’s big plays: As noted above, Wake Forest can hurt teams with its vertical passing game. They have multiple downfield threats, and its slow mesh, read/pass option (RPO) offense is unique in college football.

The scheme tests the defense’s discipline, and the secondary in particular must be strong in their assignments. Wake Forest has 15 touchdown passes so far this year that went at least 30 yards. They love to hit deep throws off of play action.

3. Win turnover margin: NC State has turned it over seven times in nine games, tied for sixth fewest in the country and the best mark in the ACC. It’ll need to keep that up against Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons rely on turnovers to help its defense out.

Three Numbers Of Note For NC State Football

2-10 NC State football fans knew this would appear somewhere. That’s the Pack’s record in games played at Wake Forest since 1997, when the Deacons won 19-18 at home to end a nine-game winning streak for NC State in the rivalry.

34 Fewest points Wake Forest has scored in regulation of a game this year, which came in a 40-37 overtime win at Syracuse. That is also the only game in which the Deacons have been held under 20 points in the first half and was trailing at halftime. Syracuse led 21-17 at the break.

1 The winner of Saturday’s game will be the sole remaining team controlling its destiny in the Atlantic Division.

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