Should NC State football be ahead of Wake Forest in preseason picks?

The ACC released its preseason picks for the upcoming season this week, including NC State football being second in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson. The Wolfpack is one spot ahead of Wake Forest, the defending division winner.

That begged the question from some on social media, such as how Triad-area radio host Josh Graham stated on Twitter: “Somebody explain ranking N.C. State ahead of Wake Forest like I’m five.”

That’s a fair question, one The Wolfpacker tried to answer.

Looking back at 2021

Ultimately, the Atlantic Division title ran through the Wake Forest-NC State game played in Winston-Salem that the Deacons won 45-42.

Wake Forest controlled most of the contest, but NC State did have a 27-24 lead in the third quarter and was an eyelash away on an onside kick recovery that would have put the Wolfpack in position to steal a late win.

Furthermore, NC State out-gained Wake Forest in total yards 482-406 despite having a kickoff return for a score that ate into the tally. The Pack played the game without four likely starters on defense, including two potential NFL linebackers, yet held the Deacons to a tie for its second lowest yard total during the regular season.

Wake Forest went 11-3 in 2021. The Deacons played four games against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams that finished with an above-.500 record and went 2-2. One win was the thriller at home over NC State, and the other was a 70-54 shootout at Army. The Deacons lost by 21 and 24 points respectively at Clemson and in the ACC title game to Pittsburgh.

NC State went 9-3, including 1-3 against FBS teams with winning records. The one victory was a double-overtime triumph over 10-win Clemson at home. All three defeats were on the road — by 14 at Mississippi State, one at Miami and three at Wake Forest.

Wake Forest hold the bragging rights from 2021, but the difference between the Deacons and NC State was not enough to definitively give WFU an automatic edge going into 2022.

NC State football on paper vs. Wake Forest in 2022

There is no question whose defense is more valued. NC State was 19th in the country in total yards allowed per game in 2021 and 14th in points surrendered. Wake Forest was 88th out of 130 teams in scoring defense and 91st in yards allowed.

Furthermore, while NC State must replace two of the Pack’s better pass rushers from last season, the vast majority of the experience and playmakers are back.

Wake Forest underwent a defensive coordinator change and is replacing several key starters from the struggling unit.

Graham’s reply on Twitter is probably emblematic of Wake Forest’s retort: “There is no question who’s offense is more trusted and bringing more back.”

Both teams return a standout quarterback. Fans can quibble over who is better, but neither team is hurting at the position.

The Deacons return two of its top three running backs in Justice Ellison and Christian Turner, whereas NC State is trying to replace Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr., its 1-2 punch over the past two years.

However, Jordan Houston ran for 526 yards and a pair of scores in his rookie season in 2019 while Person was injured and patiently waited his turn now that Knight and Person are each in NFL training camps.

Houston’s 752 career rushing yards are not far from Turner’s 773 and better than Ellison’s 654 yards. Wake Forest does have more proven depth.

In terms of receiving, Wake Forest has 174 catches for 2,689 yards and 27 touchdowns back from last year’s group of receivers, tight ends and running backs. By comparison, NC State has 160 receptions for 2,090 yards and 22 scores back.

Wake Forest also gets a healthy Donavon Greene back after he missed last season. In 2020, Greene had 29 catches for 582 yards and two scores in eight games. NC State added Maryland transfer Darryl Jones, a super senior who caught 23 passes for 319 yards and two touchdowns last season for the Terrapins.

NC State lost All-American left tackle Ikem Ekwonu but returns five offensive linemen who started at least five games last season, including preseason first-team All-ACC center Grant Gibson. Wake Forest also lost a starter to the NFL Draft and should have four first-string returners.

Wake Forest had the better offense in 2021, finishing 11th in the country in yards per game compared to NC State’s 58th, but the returning production might be closer than some suspect.

Furthermore, NC State football had five players on the preseason All-ACC teams. Wake Forest had one, receiver A.T. Perry.

Only Clemson had more preseason all-conference selections than NC State. Meanwhile, only Duke, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech did not have an honoree, and Wake Forest was one of four other teams not to have multiple selections.

Conclusion

On paper, NC State has a superior setup on defense while Wake Forest has an edge on offense, but not with as substantial a gap that the Pack enjoys defensively.

While Wake Forest had a better season in 2021, the difference between the Pack and Deacons may boil down to the location of the game, which this year will be in Raleigh. NC State has won six of seven in the series at Carter-Finley Stadium, including 45-42 in the 2020 season opener when NC State star quarterback Devin Leary was sidelined after a Covid-19 quarantine.

The bottom line is Clemson, NC State and Wake Forest all are closely matched on paper and can probably be arranged in any order. NC State may be the most balanced of the three in terms of offense, defense and special teams. Wake Forest’s offense may be the best individual unit of the trio followed closely by Clemson’s defense, but the Deacons’ defense is perhaps the most questionable.