NC State game predictions: Week 7 vs. Syracuse

NC State proved it can win a defensive battle last Saturday against Florida State, and the Wolfpack will likely have to do the same this week if it hopes to leave Syracuse with a victory. The Orange are undefeated with a 5-0 record. With a potentially packed and loud crowd at the JMA Wireless Dome expected, this will be a challenging road contest for the Pack.

The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. on the ACC Network. 

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Here are The Wolfpacker staff predictions for this weekend:

Matt Carter’s prediction for NC State vs. Florida State

Games between NC State football and Syracuse in the Carrier, er, JMA Wireless Dome, have traditionally come down to the fourth quarter.

In 2014, Syracuse was leading 14-9 and driving when defensive end Pharoah McKever picked off a pass and went 82 yards for a pick-six. A 2-point conversion was tacked on, and suddenly the Pack led 17-14 with 2:52 left in the third quarter.

Then with 2:14 remaining, an 18-yard touchdown pass from Jacoby Brissett to Shadrach Thornton gave the Pack a 24-14 lead in what would eventually be a 7-point win. That was NC State football coach Dave Doeren’s first ACC win after 12 straight defeats in league play, including 4 in a row to begin the 2014 campaign.

Two years later, NC State was once again mired in a 4-game league losing streak when traveling to Syracuse. The Pack led most of the way, but could not breathe comfortably until running back Matthew Dayes scored on a touchdown run with 4:50 left to provide the final 35-20 margin.

Dayes’ earlier TD rush with 10 seconds left in the third quarter had provided some separation in what was a 21-20 contest in the Pack’s favor.

In 2018, coach Dino Babers’ best squad at Syracuse raced out to a 24-7 first quarter lead and was up 41-27 entering the fourth quarter. Yet the Wolfpack cut the lead down to 44-41 and had the football with 3:12 left before quarterback Ryan Finley was intercepted on third down in what ended up as a 51-41 defeat.

Then in 2020, in arguably Babers’ worst year at Syracuse, the Wolfpack trailed 22-14 at halftime and was losing 29-27 going into the fourth quarter. The Orange had a kickoff return for a score, a 60-yard bomb on a busted coverage and a bizarre safety, yet Syracuse made the final mistake when quarterback Rex Culpepper spiked the football on fourth and goal and seconds left in a 36-29 NC State victory.

As a believer in learning from history, my prediction is this will be a game decided in the fourth quarter, and that NC State can use the quarterback uncertainty to the Pack’s advantage to keep the contest tight.

Then in the fourth quarter, a Thayer Thomas touchdown catch will provide the separation in a 24-14 Wolfpack victory.

Prediction: NC State 24, Syracuse 14

Previous Predictions: 

Week 1: NC State 34, East Carolina 17 (actual: NC State 21, East Carolina 20)

Week 2: NC State 48, Charleston Southern 7 (actual: NC State 55, Charleston Southern 3)

Week 3: NC State 30, Texas Tech 17 (actual: NC State 27, Texas Tech 14)

Week 4: NC State 45, UConn 7 (actual: NC State 41, UConn 10)

Week 5: Clemson 30, NC State 21 (actual: Clemson 30, NC State 20)

Week 6: NC State 27, Florida State 17 (actual: NC State 19, Florida State 17)

Ethan McDowell’s prediction

On paper, this doesn’t seem like a game NC State should win. The Wolfpack will likely take the field without star quarterback Devin Leary and will do so on the road against a ranked, rested and undefeated opponent. 

With that said, something about Saturday makes me feel good about NC State’s chances. The Pack defense showed it can take over a game when it needs to against Florida State, and I think the Seminoles’ offense is a better overall unit than Syracuse.

Sean Tucker might be the best running back in the country and, if the defense cannot slow him down, the game could get out of hand. But everything this season has shown the Wolfpack will be up for that challenge. The defense is playing high-level football right now and, possibly most importantly, you can tell the entire roster believes in each other. 

For me, the magic number is 24. If the Wolfpack can keep the Orange under that total, I think the Pack has a good chance to win the game. I think folks are underestimating Jack Chambers’ ability to throw the ball. Remember, Charleston Southern is an air raid offense, and he excelled there. After a week to prepare as the likely starter, I think we’ll see the playbook open up for the graduate student compared to the Florida State game.

Chambers will do enough to keep the stout Syracuse offense honest, and that combined with a healthy running back duo of Jordan Houston and Demie Sumo-Karngbaye should be enough to control the tempo of the game and put up enough points to win. 

Expect a run-heavy, low-scoring game Saturday. 

Prediction: NC State 20, Syracuse 17

Previous Predictions: 

Week 1: The Wolfpack 38, East Carolina 10 (actual: the Wolfpack 21, East Carolina 20)

Week 2: The Wolfpack 52, Charleston Southern 6 (actual: the Wolfpack 55, Charleston Southern 3)

Week 3: The Wolfpack 35, Texas Tech 20 (actual: the Wolfpack 27, Texas Tech 14)

Week 4: The Wolfpack 52, UConn 6 (actual: the Wolfpack 41, UConn 10)

Week 5: Clemson 28, NC State 24 (actual: Clemson 30, the Wolfpack 20)

Week 6: The Wolfpack 31, Florida State 20 (actual: the Wolfpack 19, Florida State 17)