NC State vs. Notre Dame: 3 thoughts, a bold prediction and more

By Noah Fleischman

After it spent last week inside a pair of hostile ACC venues, NC State is looking to turn the tide as it kicks off a two-game homestand at the Lenovo Center. The Wolfpack, which lost at Virginia and at Wake Forest, welcomes Notre Dame to Raleigh on Wednesday night, searching for its first win since Dec. 22. 

Here are three thoughts, a bold prediction and more going into the Irish and Wolfpack. 

3 thoughts going into the game

– NC State needs to win this one. The Wolfpack, which got off to a hot start in ACC play with an overtime win against Florida State, is on a two-game skid. NC State, at this point, can’t afford to let that losing streak grow in its fight to get the best possible seed in the ACC Tournament and boost its chances to land an NCAA Tournament bid . The Pack hosts UNC on Saturday, so a win over Notre Dame is almost a necessity at this point.

Kevin Keatts holds a 6-3 mark over the Irish, including a 3-1 record against them inside the Lenovo Center. A win will be crucial to build some momentum with the Tar Heels visiting over the weekend in a game that the Pack could steal if it’s hot on both ends of the floor.

– Marcus Hill is settling in. The Bowling Green transfer arrived at NC State with a reputation of getting to the rim through contact and traffic. So far, he’s continued to do that with the Wolfpack, especially over the past seven games. Hill has scored in double figures each of those contests, which included 23 points against Florida State in his ACC debut.

He leads the team in scoring at 12.6 points a game, while Hill also has a 50.7 percent clip from the field and 30 total assists on the year. Hill might not be the electric scorer DJ Horne was for the Wolfpack last year, but his ability to drive the gaps and get to the rim is a positive for this year’s squad. Plus, if he can develop a 3-point shot (4-for-17 this season), Hill would be the premier player the Wolfpack is looking for on the offensive end. 

– Can NC State own the paint against Notre Dame? It’s a key statistic to keep an eye on for the Pack this season. The Wolfpack is 8-1 when it wins that battle this season and 0-5 when the opposing team does. NC State is averaging 41.8 points in the paint in those victories, and just 24.6 in the losses.

Notre Dame has allowed teams to average 30.3 points in the paint, while it has scored 33.4 in that area per game. In each of its last two games — losses to Georgia Tech and UNC — Notre Dame gave up at least 32 points in the paint. If the Wolfpack can match or exceed that, it should have a good chance to win the game over the Irish.

Bold prediction

– NC State is going to need paint points to win this game. I’ll say senior forwards Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Ben Middlebrooks combine to score at least 24 points against Notre Dame. 

Last game’s bold prediction: I predicted Jayden Taylor would score at least 14 points with four or more assists at Wake Forest. He didn’t. Taylor scored 6 points with three assists in the Pack’s loss to the Demon Deacons. I now predict he will score at least 14 points with four or more assists against the Irish.

Broadcast details

TV: ESPNU
Tipoff: 7:00 p.m.
Broadcasters: Wes Durham (play-by-play), Cory Alexander (analyst) and Jim Boeheim (analyst)

Radio: WRAL-FM
Air time: 6:00 p.m.
Broadcasters: Matt Chazanow (play-by-play) and Tony Haynes (analyst)

NC State game notes

– The Wolfpack is 35-8 in home games, including a 15-7 mark, since the 2022-23 season began. NC State holds an 8-1 record inside the Lenovo Center this year. 

– NC State leads the ACC and is 33rd in the NCAA in turnover margin at +3.7, but it has committed more turnovers than its opponents over the last two games. The Pack had a season-high 13 at Wake Forest. NC State is also averaging just 6.9 steals per game, which if it holds for the entire season, would be a low in the Kevin Keatts era. The Pack has always finished inside the top five in steals among ACC teams since Keatts arrived in Raleigh. 

– Graduate guard Michael O’Connell leads the ACC and is eighth in the NCAA with a 3.86 assist-to-turnover ratio. He has logged one or fewer turnovers in 11 of NC State’s 14 games this season. Through the first three ACC games, O’Connell is averaging one turnover for 33 minutes played.

Notre Dame outlook

– NC State and Notre Dame have evenly split the all-time series between the two programs at 10 wins each. The series dates back to the 1977-78 season. The Wolfpack has won the last two meetings, including a 54-52 victory in South Bend last season that featured a game-winning bucket from DJ Burns with 0.6 seconds remaining. 

– Notre Dame (7-7, 1-2 ACC) is looking for its first win over a Power Conference opponent since it beat Syracuse 69-64 on Dec. 7. The Irish hasn’t defeated a high-major team on the road since its third game of the season, an 84-63 victory at Georgetown.