NC State vs. Pitt: Three thoughts, a bold prediction and more

By Noah Fleischman

After a turbulent season away from the Lenovo Center — NC State has yet to win a game outside of Raleigh, the Wolfpack is looking to pick up its 12th win at home on Senior Night against Pittsburgh. 

Before the two teams tip off on Wednesday night, here are three thoughts, a bold prediction and more to preview the conference clash. 

Three thoughts going into the game

– NC State’s recent skid took its ACC Tournament hopes out of its hands. The Wolfpack’s win over Wake Forest on Jan. 22, hopefully, was going to spark a strong finish to the regular season and qualification for the ACC postseason. Instead, the Pack dropped its last two games by double digits. A 14-point loss at Syracuse was followed by a 25-point defeat at Georgia Tech last week.

That dropped NC State’s chances of making it to the ACC Tournament to 7 percent, according to Playoffstatus.com. The only way for NC State to make the field in Charlotte is to win its last two games (vs. Pitt and at Miami), while Notre Dame has to lose out (vs. Stanford and vs. Cal).

– NC State needs to figure out how to turn turnovers into offense. The Wolfpack is known as a turnover-forcing squad — and it’s been able to do that, for the most part — but it hasn’t been able to consistently score off of them. The Pack is averaging 18.5 points off turnovers in its 11 wins this season, but that number falls to just 10.9 points in the 18 losses.

Additionally, the Wolfpack is 10-3 when it scores 14 or more fast-break points this season and 1-15 when it has 13 or less this season. If NC State is going to beat Pitt, scoring in transition will be a requirement.

– NC State’s veterans must perform in these final must-win games. The Pack hasn’t gotten much of a scoring punch from senior guards Jayden Taylor and Marcus Hill recently. Taylor has scored a total of 9 points over the last three games — and has eight single-digit scoring efforts in his last 10 outings. Hill hasn’t found double figures in the last five games with 32 total points over that stretch, even though he’s the Wolfpack’s leading scorer at 11.7 points (the lowest point total of an NC State leading scorer since the 1998-99 season).

Neither guard has really looked for their shots in recent games, which has led to the low point outputs. If NC State is going to find a way into the ACC Tournament, it will need most of its players clicking at a high level.

That includes both Taylor and Hill, who are experienced at the collegiate level and need to fill that role instead of forcing freshmen guards Trey Parker and Paul McNeil. 

Bold prediction

– The Wolfpack misses the scoring power of Taylor and Hill. I’ll say one of the pair scores at least 15 points with NC State’s postseason hopes clinging to a thread against Pitt. 

Broadcast details

TV: ESPN News
Tipoff: 7:00 p.m ET
Broadcasters: Mike Monaco (play-by-play) and Randolph Childress (analyst)

Radio: WRAL-FM
Air time: 6:00 p.m. ET
Broadcasters: Matt Chazanow (play-by-play) and Tony Haynes (analyst)

NC State game notes

– McNeil has scored 59 points in the last six games, 67.8 percent of his season total. McNeil’s six-game stretch was highlighted by a career-best 24 points in the team’s win over Wake Forest.

– NC State is averaging its lowest point total per game (69.6) in the Kevin Keatts era. If it holds, it will be the lowest scoring offense since the 2009-10 season (66.6). The Wolfpack’s 72.8 points in the 2020-21 season are currently the lowest by a Keatts-coached team. 

– Senior forward Ben Middlebrooks is one of eight players in the ACC with a combined 60 or more blocks and steals. He has 38 blocks and 24 steals this season. NC State is 7-3 when Middlebrooks has multiple blocks in a game and 4-2 when he has multiple steals. 

Pitt outlook

– This will be the 28th all-time meeting between the two programs. NC State leads the series 21-6, but it lost 81-73 in the last meeting on March 9, 2024 in Pittsburgh. Taylor scored 22 of his career-best 28 points in the second half of last season’s regular season finale. 

– Pitt is riding a three-game losing streak. The Panthers dropped games at Notre Dame (76-72), home against Georgia Tech (73-67) and at Louisville (79-68).