Previewing NC State wrestling at Virginia Tech, ACC seeding implications

The annual top ACC dual, and some would argue national dual, of the year goes down this weekend in the season finale, as No. 7 NC State travels up to No. 10 Virginia Tech Friday night. The top two programs in the conference will go at it once again with the regular season ACC Dual Championship on the line.

An NC State win gives the Pack the title outright, as NC State has already clinched at least a share of the top spot. A Virginia Tech win, and there could be as many as three teams (North Carolina) tied atop the conference standings with one loss apiece. The ACC does not do tiebreakers for its regular season champion.

NC State has now claimed at least a share of the ACC Dual Championship for the sixth time in the last eight years. The Wolfpack have also won its last 14 ACC duals, and 28 of the last 30 dating back to the 2019-20 season. The two lone losses in that stretch were each of the last two road trips up to Virginia Tech (14-16 in 2023 and 16-17 in 2021).

WrestleStat has this year’s dual in Virginia Tech’s favor, 19-13.

It will be tough sledding for the Wolfpack to come out of Blacksburg with a win, but this is how I see a path to victory when looking at the 10 matchups:

Avoid/limit bonus points: 141, 149, 197 – Virginia Tech comes in as a heavy favorite in these three bouts, and all three could be bonus point wins. Giving up just a major decision in only two of these three is essential.

NC State as the favorite: 125, 285 – NC State comes in as the higher ranked wrestler in these two matches, the Pack’s two highest ranked wrestlers in their lineup, and these two bouts might be the best of the dual. These are both must wins for the Pack, but the road to bonus points will be very tough in both.

Toss-ups: 133, 157, 165, 174, 184 – In three of these five weight classes, the two wrestlers are separated by no more than three spots in the national rankings. The Pack is ranked higher at 157 and 165, while VT has the edge on paper at 133 and 174. At 184, NC State is the favorite, but Fishback did go 0-2 against Stewart last season. For a Pack team win, I see NC State having to win at least four of these five toss-ups.

The Pack will be hard pressed to get any bonus point wins against the Hokies, and it is very likely Virginia Tech will get bonus points in at least one match. Therefore, for the Pack to get a win, it must go at least 6-4 in the Pack’s favor.

Here is a quick look at the 10 matchups, and where each stand in regard to seeding for the upcoming ACC Championship (March 9 at Duke). In addition to NC State at Virginia Tech, Pitt closes out at Virginia and North Carolina is at Stanford to wrap up ACC duals.

125: No. 3 Vince Robinson vs. No. 5 Eddie Ventresca

With a win, Robinson would clinch the top seed and lone bye for the ACCs, going 5-0 in conference action as he did not wrestle against Duke. A Ventresca win would create the dreaded triangle atop the standings, with Robinson, Ventresca and UNC’s Moore all sitting with a 1-1 record against each other. In that situation, I would see Ventresca getting the top seed due to him having the best win (over Robinson) and being ranked the highest in the national rankings (forecasting he would leap ahead of Robinson). Robinson then would be second and Moore third. 

133: No. 14 Kai Orine vs. No. 13 Connor McGonagle

This weekend, the top four in this weight class all face each other. A win or loss, it is very likely two-time ACC champion Orine will be the fourth seed for his final ACC Championship. He is 2-2 thus far in conference action, both losses to wrestlers that will be seeded higher than himself. McGonagle is 4-0 in ACC duals, but didn’t face UNC’s Oakley who is 5-0. Oakley will go for the top seed against Stanford’s Knox (4-1). Those three wrestlers will all be seeded higher than Orine. Orine and McGonagle did face off previously, in a dual last year won by McGonagle when he was at Lehigh, 4-1.

141: Troy Hohman OR Tyler Tracy vs. No. 10 Sam Latona

Is there a roster battle this late in the season for NC State? Troy Hohman jumped up a weight class and downed No. 21 Miranda of Stanford, 5-3, this past weekend. Tyler Tracy started the first four ACC duals for the Pack.

If it’s Hohman for the ACCs, he would only have two conference matches to figure out his seed, so good luck predicting where the coaches put him. A win or loss in this dual probably would keep him at the fourth/fifth seed matchup no matter what due to his small sample size. If it’s Tracy for the ACCs, he will likely be the sixth seed at the ACCs, as he is 1-3 thus far in his first season in conference action. A Latona win would secure the top seed and a perfect 6-0 conference mark, as he goes for his second career ACC title (2021 at 125 pounds).

149: No. 22 Koy Buesgens vs. No. 1 Caleb Henson

Buesgens seems locked into the fourth seed. He is 3-2 in ACC duals, with losses to UNC’s McNeil and Standford’s Abas, both will be seeded higher. His win over Pitt’s Solomon should keep one spot above the ex-Pack wrestler, as the two will likely face off in the first round at ACCs. The defending NCAA champion Henson has missed two ACC duals this year, including against McNeil, so he is looking like the second seed if McNeil downs Abas Friday night.

157: No. 15 Ed Scott vs. No. 12 Rafael Hipolito

Another two-time ACC champion for NC State, Scott will clinch the top seed with a win. He is the lone undefeated wrestler at the weight at 5-0. A win by Hipolito, and it creates another triangle at the top, as Scott, Hipolito and Pitt’s Evans would all be 1-1 against each other in that situation. But, Hipolito will be hard to seed as he was limited to just three ACC duals this year due to injury. NC State bias here, but Scott should still be the top seed with a 5-1 mark over Hipolito with a 2-1 mark in my opinion if the dual goes in that direction. Hipolito redshirted last year, but got the call up in the NC State-Virginia Tech dual, which Scott won 12-7.

165: No. 28 Derek Fields vs. Mac Church

With a win, Fields would be the second seed at ACCs, only behind Standford’s Gavin who holds the head-to-head and is undefeated at 5-0. Fields currently sits at 4-1, compared to Church at 1-4 in his first season as a starter up from 149 pounds last year. A loss by Fields would most likely slip him below defending ACC champion Hamilton of Virginia (they did not meet in the NCSU-UVA dual) and into the third seed. Fields and Church met earlier this year in Las Vegas, Church won 4-2.

174: No. 22 Matty Singleton vs. No. 20 Lennox Wolak

This will be the hardest weight to seed, and it is probably the deepest in the ACC this year. Singleton sits at 3-2 while Wolak is at 3-1, so you have to assume the winner will be a seed higher. Stanford’s Norman is the top wrestler at this weight, ranking No. 4 nationally, but is only 2-0 in ACC action due to a recent injury that has forced him out of the lineup. UNC’s Ogunsanya is 3-1 and Pitt’s Augustine is 3-2, they both hold wins over Singleton. Wolak’s pin of Augustine last weekend really throws this weight off. Prediction: a Singleton win gets him the third seed, but a loss would drop him to the fifth.

184: No. 14 Dylan Fishback vs. No. 20 TJ Stewart

The top four at this weight are set, they are the same top four from last year. Fishback and Stewart both have matching 4-1 ACC records. A Fishback win gets him the second seed, behind an undefeated Heller of Pitt who won the dual matchup. A loss would push Fishback to the third seed, and Stewart gets the second. A Stewart loss pushes him down to fourth below UNC’s Kane who scored a pin in their dual meeting. Stewart won both meetings against Fishback last year, 7-2 in the dual and then 8-5 for the ACC title.

197: No. 31 Christian Knop vs. No. 16 Andy Smith

Win or loss, Knop is looking like the fifth seed at ACCs. He is at 2-3 in conference action, with wins over Virginia and Duke both who will be seeded lower. After getting into the top-10 nationally, Smith has dropped two in a row and will be likely the third seed.

285: No. 4 Isaac Trumble vs. No. 13 Jimmy Mullen

A battle for the top two seeds at the ACCs as both come in undefeated in conference action, the winner gets the bye while the loser will be the second seed. Both sit at 5-0 in ACC duals, both have won every conference bout via bonus points too. The two met last year when both redshirted, Trumble scored a 12-4 major decision at Midlands. This might be a weight where it is a benefit to be the top seed as opposed to the second, as it looks like Pitt’s Dayton Pitzer will be the third seed in this top three heavyweight class.