Updating NC State women’s basketball NCAA Tournament projections ahead of Selection Sunday

The waiting game is finally over. Selection Sunday has arrived and NC State women’s basketball will find out where it will slot in this year’s NCAA Tournament bracket. 

The Wolfpack, which finished as the ACC Tournament runner-up, is likely to host for the fifth time in the last seven years. Before the bracket is announced (8 p.m., ESPN), here’s a look at the latest bracketology updates from around the country.

ESPN

Charlie Creme, ESPN’s lead women’s bracketologist, has NC State as second-best No. 2 seed in his latest bracket projection. The Wolfpack would slot in as the No. 6 team on the seed list, just as Creme said was the program’s highest-possible outcome after its ACC regular season title. 

In this projection, NC State is in Region 3, which would send the Wolfpack to Spokane, Wash., in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds. The Pack would host 15th-seeded Tennessee Tech in the opening round at Reynolds Coliseum, while it would face off with the winner of No. 7 seed Michigan and No. 10 seed Harvard.

Tennessee Tech, winners of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament, went 26-5 in the regular season, including a 18-2 record in league play. The Golden Eagles faced just one Power Conference opponent this season, a 91-79 loss at Colorado on Dec. 3.

Michigan, meanwhile, went 22-10, including an 11-7 record in Big Ten Play, this season. The Wolverines lost to USC 82-70 in the Big Ten semifinals on Saturday afternoon in Indianapolis. Michigan owns a 3-7 record against Associated Press Top 25 teams this season, including a victory over No. 15 Maryland in the Big Ten quarterfinals last Friday.

Harvard, winners of the Ivy League Tournament, went 24-4 with an 11-3 mark in conference play. The Crimson went 3-0 against Power Conference teams, including a 72-68 overtime win over then-No. 25 Indiana on Nov. 7. NC State and Harvard have one common opponent, Boston College, who the Crimson beat 78-70 on Nov. 14.  

No. 1 seed USC headlines this region, while third-seeded Oklahoma and fourth-seeded Ole Miss round out the top four squads in this quadrant.

Her Hoop Stats

Megan Gauer, who runs bracketology for Her Hoop Stats, kept NC State as the No. 2 seed in the top left quadrant. Gauer slotted the Pack against No. 15 seed Tennessee Tech, while she also had No. 7 seed Vanderbilt and No. 10 seed Richmond making the trip to Reynolds Coliseum. 

This projection slots the Wolfpack in Region 1, the top left quadrant of the bracket, to play the second weekend in Spokane.

Vanderbilt, who NC State beat 70-62 last season at Reynolds Coliseum, went 22-10 with an 8-8 mark in SEC play. The Commodores went 2-5 against AP Top 25 teams in the regular season, including a 71-70 win over then-No. 15 Tennessee on Jan. 19.

Richmond, meanwhile, presents as a dangerous 10th seed as it is projected to visit Raleigh. The Spiders, which went 26-5, including a 17-1 mark in Atlantic 10 play, will earn an at-large bid after falling in the conference tournament semifinals via a buzzer beater. Richmond is currently No. 33 in the NET rankings — the highest-rated mid-major team in the nation.

Top-seeded UCLA is in this region, while No. 3 seed LSU and No. 4 seed Baylor round out the group.

The Athletic

While both ESPN and Her Hoop Stats have the Wolfpack as a 2-seed, The Athletic’s Mark Schindler placed NC State as a 3-seed. He projected the Pack to host No. 14 seed San Diego State and the winner would face the winner of No. 6 seed Michigan and No. 11 seed Iowa State/Princeton.

San Diego State, which won the Mountain West Championship in triple overtime, went 25-9 with an 11-7 conference record in this season. The Aztecs went 1-0 against Power Conference opponents this season as they downed Wisconsin 73-67 in Cancun on Nov. 28. 

The first four matchup, which would take place the day before the two-game slate at Reynolds Coliseum, would feature an Iowa State squad that went 22-11 (15-2 Big 12) and the Ivy League regular season runner-up, Princeton (21-6, 12-2 Ivy). 

Schindler’s projection has the Wolfpack set to play the second weekend in Birmingham. No. 1 seed South Carolina headlines the group, while second-seeded TCU and fourth-seeded Kentucky round out the region.