Is the 2022 Notre Dame offense in trouble? Breaking down returning production rankings

With the 2021 college football season in the rearview mirror, 2022 classes signed and NFL draft declarations complete, the rosters for the fall are becoming more clear. 

Each year, ESPN writer Bill Connelly releases his returning production rankings for the following season. The 2022 rendition came out this week. 

Notre Dame sits at No. 93 with 59 percent of their total production returning in 2022. The national average sits around 66 percent. On the offensive side of the ball, the Irish have just 49 percent coming back this fall, which ranks 113th. The defense has 69 percent of its production returning, which ranks 56th.

This piece will examine how Connelly arrived at the 49 percent on offense and whether it is a cause for concern. A later piece will address the defensive number. 

What’s Connelly’s formula?

The ESPN expert’s formula changes each year, but here is the breakdown used to arrive at the aforementioned 2022 numbers:

Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 37 percent of the overall number (approximately 9 percent for each starting receiver or tight end)

Percent of returning QB passing yards: 29 percent

Percent of returning OL snaps: 28 percent (approximately 6 percent per starting offensive lineman)

Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 6 percent

Is No. 113 a cause for concern? Maybe not.

At first glance, 113th in the nation is not ideal if you place a lot of stock in this metric. But upon further review, the number becomes less worrisome.

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The reasons for the low offensive ranking are fairly obvious. Starting quarterback Jack Coan and top running back Kyren Williams are going pro. Additionally, receiver Kevin Austin Jr., who led the team in receiving yards and tied with tight end Michael Mayer in the touchdown category, is headed to the NFL too. Who will replace them?

Quarterback

The quarterback makes the single biggest difference in the offense’s returning production percentage, as Connelly cites approximately 29 percent of each team’s 100 percent is dependent upon returning passing yards. Coan was responsible for 85.8 percent of Notre Dame’s yardage in 2021. That’s going to lead to a drop in this metric. 

Tyler Buchner is the presumed starter under center for 2022, and while he has an immense amount of talent, he hasn’t started a game since 2019 and was limited in the passing game in 2021, accounting for 8.1 percent of the passing yardage.

Offensive line

This is the only offensive category Connelly measures in snaps as opposed to yards.

Notre Dame’s offensive line in 2022 will be as seasoned as ever. The only big loss in terms of snap count was Cain Madden. According to PFF, Madden played 811 snaps in 2021. Otherwise, it looks pretty good for Notre Dame.

Center Jarrett Patterson returns for his fifth year after playing 827 snaps at center in 2021. Rising sophomores and tackles Joe Alt (523 snaps) and Blake Fisher (37 snaps due to injury) are expected to start. Fisher lacks the experience, but it shouldn’t be too big of an issue for the immensely talented former top recruit in Notre Dame’s 2021 class. Additionally, Andrew Kristofic (502 snaps) is back at guard and sixth-year player Josh Lugg (821 snaps) returns and could slide to guard to make room for Fisher to start at tackle.

In summary, Notre Dame got a big boost in this category in Connelly’s rankings, and the group should be very good in 2022, particularly since offensive line coach Harry Hiestand is back.

Running back

The running back situation isn’t too great of a worry, although Williams will certainly be missed by Irish fans. Williams had 1,002 of Notre Dame’s 1,869 rushing yards in 2021 (53.6 percent), so assume they were docked approximately 3 percentage points in the returning production metric as a result. 

But Chris Tyree and Logan Diggs will be very good this fall, especially since the offensive line is expected to be stout. The pass-catching abilities of running backs aren’t factored into this ranking, but Tyree will pick up where Williams left off in that category.

Wide receiver

Receiver is the huge question for Notre Dame entering 2022, due largely to depth issues at the position. Since Connelly’s metric is yards-based, the fact that Mayer led the team in receptions doesn’t matter here.

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Notre Dame receivers and tight ends totaled 2,999 receiving yards in 2021, and 888 were thanks to Austin (29.6 percent). But losing approximately one-third of your production at wide receiver isn’t too bad, especially when you look at who Notre Dame has returning and how high the ceiling is for some of those players. 

Avery Davis, Notre Dame’s second-leading wide receiver, was out with a torn ACL beginning in early November. One can assume he would have made up a larger chunk of receiver production had he been healthy all year. Lorenzo Styles and Deion Colzie were true freshmen in 2021. Obviously, they won’t be true freshmen in 2022. In other words, you will see a lot more of them this season. Their lower yardage numbers from last year likely won’t at all resemble their 2022 final stat lines. 

Incoming freshman wide receiver Tobias Merriweather is a great addition to this room as well. Sure, the depth problem at the position remains a concern, but as far as outgoing production, Notre Dame didn’t lose too much upon further examination.