College Football Playoff Projections: How high will Notre Dame rise?

No. 6 (and projected No. 8 seed) Notre Dame will rise in the College Football Playoff rankings this week after its 49-14 win over No. 19 Army. The question is, how high?

No. 5 Indiana lost by 23 points to No. 2 Ohio State, so the Irish will definitely jump the Hoosiers. No. 1 Oregon (bye), No. 3 Texas (31-14 win over Kentucky) and obviously the Buckeyes will remain the top three. The big question, though, is what the committee does with No. 4 Penn State.

The Nittany Lions squeaked by with a 26-25 road win against an unranked but tougher-than-you-think Minnesota team. Both Notre Dame and Penn State enter Week 14 at 10-1. The Irish win the “eye test,” and in this writer’s opinion, it’s not close. Notre Dame has the better win, although that took a hit this week when No. 15 Texas A&M lost in overtime to Auburn (although the Aggies can still make the Southeastern Conference Championship with a win over Texas next week).

And, obviously, Notre Dame’s one loss is to Northern Illinois, while Penn State fell to Ohio State.

Here’s where the projections have the Irish this week. As a reminder, the numbers listed are the projected playoff seed, which will be two spots lower than Notre Dame’s ranking.

On3’s Andy Staples: No. 7 seed, vs. Indiana

“The Fighting Irish annihilated Army on Saturday. Beat USC and Notre Dame will be in and hosting a playoff game. The best Notre Dame can do because of the format rules is the No. 5 seed. If they can wind up hosting a game, that’s probably a good benchmark for a successful Notre Dame season in this era.” — Staples

On3’s Ari Wasserman: No. 7 seed, vs. Indiana

“Watching the Notre Dame-Army game and the closing speed the Irish have on defense is just too much for these triple option teams. Even when [Army quarterback Bryson] Daily makes the right read, Notre Dame’s defenders just erase the field.” — Wasserman

ESPN’s Heather Dinich: No. 7 seed, vs. SMU

“The Irish beat previously undefeated Army soundly, adding an important win to their résumé and possibly also knocking Army out of the committee’s top 25. It’s a bit of a Catch-22, as the committee will acknowledge that Army probably wasn’t as good of a win as its record indicated. While it’s possible the committee considers bumping the Irish up a notch ahead of Penn State, they don’t just move teams based on the latest result, and Notre Dame’s home loss to Northern Illinois remains a sticking point in the room. Notre Dame’s season-opening win against Texas A&M took another hit on Saturday after the Aggies lost in four overtimes to unranked Auburn.” — Dinich

NBC Sports’ Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry: No. 6 seed, vs. SMU

“The Fighting Irish have been among the nation’s most dominant teams over the past two-plus months, dating back to that brutal loss to Northern Illinois. I’ve spilled a lot of ink here arguing that Notre Dame now is a very different team from the one we saw on that fateful September day — but I no longer need to make that case, because the selection committee agrees with me already.

“Based on last week’s rankings, the Irish would be hosting a first-round game. But they could and should slide up after yet another dominant win, this time coming at Army’s expense. Over Notre Dame’s nine-game winning streak, the Irish have outscored opponents, 399-92. Over the course of the entire season, the Irish now have the best point differential in FBS (+301). Notre Dame has an elite defense and a great rushing attack.

“So many teams across college football have fluctuated week to week, leading to some of the crazy upsets we’ve seen this fall. But Notre Dame has been a consistent and reliable team that, since the NIU loss, hasn’t overlooked a single opponent. I trust the Irish.” — Auerbach

The Sporting News’ Bill Bender: No. 7 seed, vs. Tennessee

“Notre Dame dismantled undefeated Army 49-14 at Yankee Stadium. Jeremiyah Love (7-130, 2 TDs) led a rushing attack that piled up 273 yards, and the Irish did not have a turnover. The Irish have made just three of their last 10 field goals, which could be a problem in the playoff. The Volunteers cycled back into the 12-team field after the Ole Miss and Alabama losses. Tennessee beat UTEP 56-0, and Nico Iamaleava (17 of 23, 209 yards, 4 TDs) had his best game this year. If the Vols avoid an upset against Vanderbilt, then they would earn a trip to South Bend.”