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ESPN releases initial SP+ rankings: Where does Notre Dame land?

IMG_7504by:Jack Soble•about 10 hours•

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Marcus freeman-8
Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman. (Chad Weaver, Blue & Gold)

Coming off a national championship appearance, Notre Dame is No. 5 on ESPN’s initial SP+ rankings, which college football writer Bill Connelly released Thursday morning.

The Irish earned an SP+ rating of 23.4. Head coach Marcus Freeman is projected to feature a well-balanced team in his fourth season, with the 37.3 offense SP+ rating coming in at 10th in the country and the 13.9 defense SP+ rating coming in at eighth.

Only Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State and Georgia are ahead of the Irish, respectively. Oregon, Texas, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU round out the rest of the top 10.

The initial SP+ projections are based on three factors: Returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. Here’s how Connelly explained each factor:

“1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. Combine last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on current returning production numbers, and you’re pretty far down the projections road. In fact, this factor accounts for more than 60% of the overall projection at this point.

“2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by both the past few years of recruiting rankings and the quality of incoming transfers, and it accounts for about 14% of the current projection.

“3. Recent history. Using a chunk of information from previous seasons gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This factor accounts for a little more than 20% of the projection, and it focuses only on what happened within the past three seasons. I used to use a weighted history stretching back five years, but that’s a less effective approach now with the changes in the sport.”

In addition to information about the Irish themselves, the initial SP+ ratings also shine some light on Notre Dame’s 2025 schedule.

Where do ESPN’s initial SP+ projections rank Notre Dame’s 2025 opponents?

SchoolSP+ rankingOff. SP+ rankingDef. SP+ ranking
Texas A&M121216
Miami14149
USC301452
Boise State311553
Arkansas353039
NC State453163
Pittsburgh534562
Syracuse573684
Navy635869
Boston College687457
Stanford888096
Purdue11612199

Notre Dame is projected to play six teams in the top 50, with two tiers emerging at the top: Texas A&M and Miami in Tier 1 and USC and Boise State in Tier 2. SP+ is buying the Hurricanes, Connelly wrote, and projecting them to feature the No. 1 offense in the nation behind veteran Georgia transfer quarterback Carson Beck.

“SP+ sees a team, at No. 14, capable of producing similar results as last year in 2025,” Connelly wrote. “[Head coach Mario] Cristobal brought in six defensive transfers who combined for 52 FBS starts last season, and there’s potential for a defensive rebound.”

SP+ is also buying the Aggies, who are part of its more-bullish-than-expected rating of the SEC’s “upper middle class.” Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Tennessee were also mentioned in this category.

“And all five of the teams mentioned here rank more than 10 spots higher in SP+ than they do on [Mark] Schlabach’s [way-too-early top 25],” Connelly wrote. “But they’ll also probably lose lots of games. That’s how conference depth works.”

As such, SP+ projects Notre Dame’s first two opponents to be two of the top-15 teams in the country.

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