If NBC teams up with the Big Ten, what happens to Notre Dame?

Since Sept. 7, 1991, NBC has been the home of Notre Dame football and only Notre Dame football when it comes to Saturdays in the fall. Is that exclusivity about to end?

On Thursday, Front Office Sports reported NBC is likely to make an aggressive push for Big Ten media rights, which expire in 2023 and are worth around $440 million annually under the current contract. Fox and ESPN jointly own the rights, and the Big Ten is presently in an exclusive negotiating window with ESPN, one which they are set to let expire.

According to sources, the Big Ten could command up to $1.1 billion annually on the open market when they look for a new deal.

“We don’t comment on specific strategies of our company, but we’re always interested in high-quality sports with wide appeal,” an NBC Sports spokesperson said, per Front Office Sports.

Let the bidding war begin.

The news comes just after NBC lost its rights to the NHL for the first time in nearly two decades. That agreement was around $100 million per year. As a result, NBC now has a chunk of talent on hand they could dedicate to additional college football work.

Understandably, CBS is also reportedly interested in grabbing the media rights to the Power Five conference. Their partnership with the SEC, which began in 1996, will expire after the 2023 football season. Disney (ABC/ESPN) signed a 10-year, $3 billion contract with the SEC in 2020, which will go into effect in 2024.

Would Notre Dame get boxed out?

This is all speculative, but the idea Notre Dame would get demoted or pushed out in favor of the Big Ten is likely an unfounded concern. Notre Dame is currently planted in position with an NBC deal through 2025, one which is reportedly worth $15 million annually.

After 2025? There still is not much to worry about. The Irish are a top media property in college football. The demand, despite a viewership dip in 2021, is unlikely to decrease dramatically.

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Excluding bowl games, the two Notre Dame-Clemson games in 2020 were the No. 1 and No. 2 most-watched college football games of the year. NBC broadcasted the regular season, double-overtime matchup on Nov. 5, which earned the top spot and was most-watched Notre Dame game on NBC since 2005 when USC came to town.

What is the probable outcome here?

What is more likely to occur should the Big Ten partner with NBC is that college football double-headers start to grace your television. NBC sees a marriage between itself and the Big Ten as something to be coupled with Notre Dame as a “perfect one-two punch,” a source told Front Office Sports.

Since 2011, at least two Irish games have been in primetime on NBC, and it has worked out quite well for them. The aforementioned 2020 Clemson game fell into that category. Notre Dame could continue to play a couple of primetime games a year, and NBC could put Michigan-Michigan State or Ohio State-Penn State in primetime on weekends when the Irish do not have a blockbuster game.

Also of note, Fox currently owns a large portion of the Big Ten Network, which signals they likely are not going to disappear in these agreements. If the Big Ten partners with NBC, it would probably still have a Fox component, similar to the ESPN and Fox agreement currently in place.

Regarding where Peacock, NBC’s streaming service, fits into the puzzle: it’s hard to believe Notre Dame on Peacock becomes a regular occurrence unless sports media turns almost entirely toward streaming, which is not out of the realm of possibility; Toledo-Notre Dame on Peacock may have been a glimpse at the future. But to think that Notre Dame football gets demoted to streaming in favor of a mid-level Big Ten game on the weekends? That just doesn’t seem like it would happen too often.

As far as the value of the Notre Dame contract, it is fully locked in until its expiration in 2025. Any extension would likely be worth more, but that would be a product of the massive recent increases in these media deals instead of the Big Ten’s involvement.

This could be a great thing for Notre Dame

If NBC winds up with any Big Ten content on their channel, it will increase awareness of Notre Dame football content as well. That, on the surface, can’t really be a detrimental thing.

Additionally, adding more college football teams into the mix on the network opens up the opportunity for NBC to have a bigger college football presence nationally. Instead of the few hours dedicated to the Irish each week, avenues open for more regular college football discussion and playoff shows. That leads to additional eyeballs, perhaps from those outside of the Big Ten and Notre Dame footprints.