Notre Dame baseball on NCAA Tournament Super Regional hosting bubble

It’s crunch time for Notre Dame baseball. If the Fighting Irish are to right the wrongs of 2021 and get on the favorable side of the NCAA Tournament Super Regional hosting bubble, they’re going to have to make a statement in the final six games of the ACC schedule.

As it stands, according to two national college baseball media outlets, Notre Dame has work to do. Here’s where D1Baseball.com and Baseball America have the Irish slotted in their most recent NCAA Tournament projections.

D1Baseball’s NCAA Tournament projections

South Bend Regional

1. Notre Dame (10)
2. Oklahoma
3. UCLA
4. Evansville

Louisville Regional

1. Louisville (7)
2. Vanderbilt
3. Coastal Carolina
4. Ball State

Baseball America NCAA Tournament projections

South Bend Regional

1. Notre Dame (10)
2. Texas State
3. Iowa
4. Ball State

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (7)
2. Oklahoma
3. Louisiana Tech
4. North Dakota State

PROMOTION: Sign up for just $1 for your first year at Blue & Gold

This isn’t foreign territory for Notre Dame. The Irish qualified for last year’s tournament as the No. 10 overall seed. That allowed them to host a Regional in South Bend, one that was throughly dominated by the home team. But then they had to go on the road into the most hostile environment in the sport to play No. 7 overall seed Mississippi State in a best two-of-three Super Regional series. The Bulldogs prevailed in three games in front of record crowds in Starkville, Miss.

Notre Dame (29-10, 13-8 ACC) can prevent a similar occurrence a year later, but it’s not going to happen without winning crucial ballgames in the final two weeks of the regular season. The Irish host Pitt (26-20, 12-11) for three games this weekend and then are at Miami (35-12, 17-7) for three more. It could even take quite a run in the ACC Tournament at the end of the month for the Irish to stay in the top-eight conversation, too.

The Irish beat Michigan State 15-6 Tuesday night. They’ve won two games in a row after losing to the same Spartans in Detroit two weeks ago and then dropping a series-opener against Boston College a few days later. Losses like those aren’t going to cut it for head coach Link Jarrett. Notre Dame could probably afford to lose a game in the next six. Maybe two, especially if they come two different opponents. Two of three against Pitt and two of three against Miami. The latter would make for a ginormous regular season-closing weekend.

Notre Dame football

• Cover 3: What is Notre Dame’s most wide-open starting job battle after spring practice?

• Three transfers who left Notre Dame the Irish could have used in 2022

The teams at the top of the ACC standings have all played a different amount of games, so determining a regular season champion is going to come down to conference record percentage points. Right now, the Irish sit in fourth in that metric at .619 behind Miami (.708), Louisville (.646) and Virginia Tech (.636). Notre Dame is 0-4 against Louisville and Virginia Tech with three games left against the Hurricanes.

A 6-0 finish would give Notre Dame a percentage points mark of .704. The Irish don’t control their own destiny, but they could make things very interesting by sweeping the final two weekends. That’s obviously Jarrett’s goal.

“You do all this to try to come out on top of the league,” Jarrett said. “You can’t just hope and wait for the postseason or have a mindset that’s not trying to win the long haul. You’re talking about a 14-week schedule. You can win a conference tournament by playing great for three games. That is awesome. But you don’t want to hang your hat on that. The championship of the regular season says more to me than anything else.”

Here’s a look at the teams Notre Dame is competing against for a top-eight overall seed.

D1Baseball NCAA Tournament national seed projections

1. Tennessee
2. Oregon State
3. Oklahoma State
4. Virginia Tech
5. Miami
6. Arkansas
7. Louisville
8. Auburn
9. Texas A&M
10. Notre Dame
11. LSU
12. Maryland
13. Virginia
14. Southern Miss
15. Stanford
16. Gonzaga

Baseball America NCAA Tournament national seed projections

1. Tennessee
2. Oregon State
3. Oklahoma State
4. Miami
5. Virginia Tech
6. Louisville
7. Arkansas
8. Georgia
9. Auburn
10. Notre Dame
11. Virginia
12. Southern Miss
13. Texas A&M
14. LSU
15. Maryland
16. Gonzaga